BTRWx

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Everything posted by BTRWx

  1. Anything from the rest of the run?
  2. You guys seem to have been nailing most systems this fall, so let's hope a new trend for this one begins in our favor!
  3. Exactly, far from over though a full whiff is also not off the table, imo.
  4. I don't think the chances of having the same scenarios tomorrow at this time are all that high considering what we have seen since yesterday. Bottom line is there's still plenty of outliers to consider before gaining more support.
  5. This is as cold as we get on the para. I see that as mostly liquid. ETA: Not like it matters 120 hrs out
  6. too close for comfort for D.C.
  7. I don't understand why so many folks think operational models can pinpoint a storm a week away. 24 hour shifts with still a few days before a storm should be expected at this point, no?
  8. Thanks for commenting. Yes, I'm well aware of the ESRL products and am anxious to see them continue to expand.
  9. Since this is a long range thread and I like to think outside the box often, has anyone ever considered compiling climatological statistics from every operational model run from a particular model between given time frames? Like instead of running multiple model runs for the actual forecast ensemble, can something similar be done for past climatological records for time periods covering good analogs?
  10. I support a cold and snowy season and am not looking back, does that count?
  11. It was also the 12Z run yesterday that introduced that idea I believe, interesting
  12. Here is a nice discussion I found from the old easternuswx forum about extrapolating 850mb to surface temps. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/145709-converting-850mb-temps-to-surface-temps/
  13. Reading many of these comments makes it seem like we have no chance of seeing snow throughout the forecast period. Although that may be true, it's no guarantee. We all know how bad the operational models are at long lead times and though the ensembles tend to give the better overall patterns in the long range, they are by no average means perfect (pun intended). It's not like we're heading towards 60-70 highs like we have in past Decembers. On the bright side of long term guidance, the most recent euro ensemble run even has the 850's error bars never rising above 50 degrees in D.C. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfts&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t850&WMO=72400&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201412030000%26HH%3D0 eta: I guess the worst case scenario would come close to upper 60's if the high end outlier verified. At least the low outlier is safely below freezing at 850.
  14. Very impressive snowfall forecast gradients between south and north of downtown Buffalo. I had to save myself a copy your area forecast discussion with all the neat technicalities included. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on I have relatives to the north of Buffalo throughout Niagara county that think this will be a low impact event and I'm curious about all your thoughts for that area? Good luck to all of you while I go back to lurking!
  15. I'm going with a friend's zip code. February 8, 2015
  16. I know a similar map was already posted, but that rapid warming in the CPAC is just what the doctor ordered. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif
  17. yea, I just saw that old date at the top
  18. I found this source from a Facebook discussion and I like what they have to say. http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Long-Range-Weather-Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935
  19. NOAA's early winter outlook agrees with you in terms of precipitation.
  20. Amazing how each major ocean basin all have positive anomalies.
  21. If a late nino does eventually develop, would winter conditions extend later into spring?
  22. Not offended at all! It just seemed to me like things were starting to veer away from the topic, but I digress. I'm just on here more often than I should be probably.
  23. Can I change my vote? Euro looks close to giving us the good stuff ~Nov 12, but that's when wunderground stops its output...