jshetley

Many places in the northwest piedmont of NC got 2 6+ events in 1987. 1-1-1987 and 1-22-1987. Some areas up there got a third one. 1-25-1987.

I thought the NAM was perfect. It certainly had the warm nose right. As far as upstate SC goes, if 5-6 models snow winter weather and just 1 does not that model will be right.

I'd like to see a repeat of Jan 2000 where I get good snow and the I-85 area and north is left OUT of it. They have had enough up there.

Just as I thought, a non event here. Temp never got below 34. 

3 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

CC already back into Meck county. This heavy stuff isn't going to last long, unfortunately. It was fun while it, briefly, lasted.

Yep it's headed back north for sure. Don't think we get to freezing here either so basically a non event here. 

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Snows made it down to KUZA

For now. Our snow changed back to rain so the line is heading north again. Charlotte goes to sleet and rain withing 1-2 hours probably.

14 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

The snow line is continuing to drop south in Upstate SC. Incredible. 

May be going back north now. I am back to rain and sleet. No snow right now.

Finally getting snow here now and it's starting to stick on the top of the car and in the grass. Moderate snow and temp is falling nicely.

Just now, lilj4425 said:

LOL. I’m right here.  

And in a better spot than I am. You'll get at least some winter weather tonight. So far only rain here. No sleet or at all and not looking for any.

This event is over south of I-85 in SC. Temps will not go lower than 36-38 in this area. 

May have to wait for the next one here in Jonesville SC. Temp is a 38 and refusing to go down. Not 1 sleet pellet or snowflake here yet. Maybe in Jan or Feb.

29 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

Brad Panovich‏Verified account @wxbrad 4m4 minutes ago

More

I shifted the snow a tad further south due to colder air & a longer duration of snow & sleet, but it still changes to ice Sunday pm. The ice threat keeps going up. #snOMG #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

I'm afraid ice will end up being the big story in the big metro areas of Charlotte and GSP including where I am southeast of Spartanburg. Areas just north of these 2 metros will do very well with snow. If we get this setup in Jan or Feb though, more of us would get snow. 

The Euro shows ice too for the upstate and northeast GA with temps in the upper 20's over the GSP metro.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Canadian ICE map... yikes 

You won't be hearing much from anyone along the I-85 corridor is SC if this was to happen. All of us would be without power.

14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'd probably wait about 7 days or so to put that out, I hear it might rain!

Irma goes out to sea. Or maybe scrapes the Outer Banks. No impact from it west of I-95 in either state.

Looks like the snow is a failure. Hopefully the cold weather next week will fail too. Cold is just useless at this point.

18 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think we have our first shot tomorrow afternoon! Lord help us, if the sun breaks out after the first batch!

No chance here now. It is done.May not even have thunder anywhere in the GSP CWA with this event. 

10 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Shetley was right? Wow 

I believe your area got about what was forecast though. i'm hearing that anywhere from 2-5 inches fell in the northern half of the GSP metro from this. It from Atlanta to Athens up through the southern upstate into Charlotte and into Raleigh that busted badly. I pretty much knew after that Thursday evening NAM run that this was over for that zone and did get that right.

17 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah learning moment for me. Tracked this thing for 10 days, it got better and better. Never going to trust a storm unless I study the HRRR and see where the snow line is coming and I have to see I'm 20 miles north of it. 

Also, surface temps have to be at freezing or below for the majority of the event. Terrible bust for many.

And it was a stinking Miller A !!!

If this had just been 12 hours slower we'd have a different story. The cold air is finally coming down in CAD fashion somewhat and changing precip over, but it is too late. One final band came through here just in the last 1.5 hours and gave us a very nice dusting here in Jonesville so the shutout is done. Hopefully this band gave Mac a dusting too.

Now I'd like to see a repeat of Jan 2000 that would leave everyone north of I-85 out. They have had enough already.

3 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

About to punt and go to bed. CC radar can't make it through CLT. Creeping back NW. Congrats to the same folks that win out every time. At some point, we'll learn to stop hoping/betting against climo. You'd think the people who get paid money to do this would learn as well.

Yep. We actually got better forecasts back in the 1980's than we do now. They live and die with the useless models now. Maybe some of the models need to be gotten rid of to force the mets to actually forecast.

Just now, packbacker said:

Yep...hard to argue.  But we have had events like this in the past 

You all in the RDU area probably stand a decent chance of salvaging this as the cold air pours in tomorrow morning, but it is not happening for SC. NO MATTER what the models say they are not to be believed in SC without those 2 things in place. With the cold air already in place this would have been an unbelievable event just like Jan of 1988, but the cold air was not here.

14 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I do feel bad for Fishel/Gardner/Maze...nobody saw this, no model predicted this epic bust for Raleigh.  RAH was tweeting maps of most likely see 7" across the area with a max of 12".  This is the last winter storm I track, I won't believe anything a model spits out.  This was a textbook setup for us...there was nothing that was a glaring problem, weak SLP, track off the panhandle off the coast, with cold air pressing in.  

Not so. We have 2 VERY GLARING problems. No cold air in place before the storm and NO high in place to provide CAD. Once the NAM shifted last evening I knew this was over for many of us. Until we get those 2 things in place the models can not be anything but wrong when they say we get a good snow. 100% of the time. No exceptions.

We all should have saw this coming once it was known that we had to depend on the cold air coming over the mountains. That will not cut it for a good many of us. I'm shocked that the rain snow line is as far south as it is. 

1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Honestly, didn't some SC folks get a rare November snow in 2015?

Not here. Was only rain.