Zeus

The Reggie look at 500 around hr 52 has some noticeable contrasts to just about every other model as to the structure of the key southern piece that gets dragged through Texas. Can't be discounted in the absence of better consensus from the bigger players, but it also doesn't carry any extra weight as an outlier here.

I believe he may have been suggesting one to three inches of liquid equivalent precipitation.

I'll have your finest scotch in my usual engraved stein, sir, and a round your skunkiest beer for all of my friends here.

Good morning! Are we winning?!

I think I love him

Yes; it is I who is upset.

I wish I knew who you are. j/k In all seriousness, I share the sentiment -- a widespread win of a storm would be deluxe.

Thank you! I hope all is well in Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, and look forward to your insights when you feel the time is right to make science upon us.

Pretty good, though I'm sure our friends in Philly and DC may beg to differ on that one. Though the NESIS scale may be imperfect, it's helpful to have some sort of metric that takes a more objective look at a storm. For my own studies, I've put together a ranked criteria to provide context for the real magnitude and impact of a given winter storm: Did I, personally, get a lot of snow? Was I awake for most of it? Did people in areas increasingly at risk of being snow-starved in light of climate change get brutally shafted after having their hopes inflated by prior guidance? Wind

I'll call some buddies!

Very true that it's been a while since the last "everybody wins" kind of big hit. Still a good bit of lead time -- this could well tuck in closer and bring a lot of excited folks into ptype/dry slot issues, or see the SW trend slower again and flatten the chances. For now, the sun is shining, we are eating wine and drinking chicken, and the forecast she look lovely in the sundress and straw hat.

I had not realized you moved to Kentucky. How are you liking it?

You've got three more 12z's to go before you see a flake. Let us reflect on this, and permit the comfort that it brings.

And with a few more tics over the next 48 hours...

I would submit that, especially in that kind of scenario, there's something to be said for totals vs. expectations AND for the dendrites themselves. Sand/diamond dust is rarely satisfying unless you get absolutely buried. 2 to 4 inches of parachutes dancing down through naught a hint of a breeze and I'm seated at the window looking like Paul Reubens enjoying a matinee.

I go wherever the LB is, as I enjoy a good pounding. That's layered wordplay right there.

Good morning, specifically and particularly, to me.

Juicy.

Hi friends. You are missed, too. Moved back to New Jersey last year. Long story. Important part is I’m ****ing thriving. Twenty minutes from the beach. The winters down here won’t do, though, so I figure I’ll need a cabin at some point. I’ll be in Mass every now and again for work; will send up a flare. Anyhow, don’t want to muck up a good thread with my rambling. This one looks ripe for good ol’ Ess Enn EEe.

Good luck up there, boys,

Seems like the trend NW hasn't necessarily continued on the 12z stuff in so far, but rather the trend W continues (things are slower) while the advancement north has stopped as it feels a bit flatter. If you consider only the heavy swath of the 12z GFS's precip shield to be "real" then it lines up fairly closely with the 12z NAM -- given the dry air coming in, this has the feeling of full on haves vs. have-nots when it comes to getting in on the goods.

Guess it might not be the worst winter to have moved back to New Jersey.