78Blizzard

Canadian is further E than any of its previous runs, now at the BM @ hr 72.

Uncle finally caves west.  Canadian is all alone now.

Canadian refuses to cave.  Still has the low just E of ACK, same as 12z.  That track makes all the difference in the world for many in SNE.

A little glimmer of hope is that the high resolution models are showing the low in the Midwest further SE than the GFS and Euro, more in line with what the Ukie and Canadian are showing.

3 minutes ago, 512high said:

So from the sounds of this my last two plows could have come off and put away today? I will hold off for the next 24 hrs, maybe  mount squeegee instead lol I really thought we had something...

Yeah, down here I'll hold off on running my snow blower out of gas for another 24 hours.  The other day I took in the stick poles at the front lawn near the street.  Taking those in I was afraid I jinxed myself. 

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Zzzzzzzzzz

Right through til November.

What the Canadian does that is different from the other models is that it gets to E of LI and then heads straight E rather than through SNE.

The Ukie lost that dual low at 12z, but consolidated it west.

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This isn't going into e MA.

Uncle says it is.

I think it's a fairly safe prediction that NNE ski season will see one of its earliest endings at many slopes.

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Jb isn't alone

Meanwhile, Boston looks to be about +7°F AN for the first week of March.

Wait-a-day model mayhem:

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

My thoughts on this winter: 

 

My thoughts on this winter:

The Euro will suck us all in until day 2, then

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really close to going ker boom!   ...Heights over Miami and adjacency below 580 dm, with pre ambient wind field < 50 kts, while heights are rising west of 100 W no less ... All we need is for that latter aspect to kick just a bit more and this thing's digging for Hades and bringin' the apoclypse back with it. This quickly would become the season definer -

I like your optimism but speculating on 11 day potential just won't cut it after this latest day 2 failure.  Long range and even medium range model confidence has been found wanting this winter season. 

Earlier this winter others were being criticized for posting such long range op runs.  

Euro did come north a bit, but too little too late.

The 0z Euro at 06z shows temps in the upper 20's.  What a joke.  It's 36F here now.

Both the 03 RAP and HRRR show 1"/hr rates here between 10-2, so we could still get 6" here.

Nothing like a busted forecast to attract the flies.

Heavier qpf is breaking out in extreme NE KY.  How much of that moves into those SE OH counties remains to be seen.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-OH_RV-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please let this winter end. I am positively done.

Some here were done a month ago.

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Icon is still solid for a lot of the area, trimed back on the NW edge so up there its rough but for a lot of CT, MA, RI it's still a solid 6-12 type deal. Same with RGEM. But i get it..it's the trending is whats causing a lot of the melting on

 

ICON still shows taint in many areas.

I said days ago that we would overachieve with this storm.  But we may be doing so from a much lower baseline now. 

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

What are the chances this think ticks 30 miles north? It's been wacky the last 24 hours.

I think we will see a north movement from now to go time.  How much, we will see?

Imagine someone who signed off here late this morning and came back to see all these pages, picking up where he left off.  His joy turned into bitter disappointment as he began reading.