LakeEffectOH

LEH is on! Ripping out here! Nice big flakes...

Got the better part of an inch today in Chesterland. Checked the radar and from what I can see, the back side is now moving in with some lake enhancement perhaps. Looks as if the back side may well be the more productive part for this event.

He was...

I think this one will come down to the wire. We're so close. May not be a blockbuster but I think we will see decent accumulations...likely to be much more than what we've seen so far this winter. Another thing, during La Ninas in particular, winter storm tracks, coming this way, have, verified more NW than modeled. Such events have ended up bringing decent accumulations (3"-5")well NW (Detroit, for example) when modeling called for like a coating to an inch though I doubt this go-around will take accumulating snows that far NW. I do remember (correct me if I'm wrong) the Christmas storm last year...for 4-6 days before the storm, models ECMWF, GEM, GFS) were fairly consistent on bringing a good storm to NE OH and NC OH. A white Christmas looked like a good bet. About 3 days prior to the storm, the GFS began playing games as one run had the heavy snow back as far west as South Bend IN and east central Michigan while seemingly, the very next run, the GFS lurched the max amounts well east of here progging paltry amounts (coating to 2") to most areas except the OH-PA border which was progged to get like 3-4". Within 36 hours of Christmas day, GFS finally caved to the other models which always had NE OH in a favorable location. We shall see...

Soooooooo tired of hearing nothing more than the term inch or less in the wx snow accum forecasts...

"Unwillingness" seems about right...

Most likely the ice has expanded since Sunday. 1) Image below is from yesterday; most likely from the early am before any major freezing took place. 2) Image below is my wild arse (WAG) guess of the current ice cover. Edited areas are within the red circle (Area of Interest). Note: Again, just a WAG from 30 years of watching similar western base ice cover spread over a similar 2-3 day sub-freezing temperature regime.

OHweather, Thanks for the post mortem. Yeah, this one sucked...I didn't know that stronger wind speeds over the lake added to the disorganization of yesterday's event. What do the elevated wind speeds do to lessen the effectivity of the snow bands? Also, what do you think of the synoptic storm early next week. The 12z GFS shows its track much further west and the 12z GEM shows increased accumulations (a chunk of that is lake effect/enhanced though. Seems to be a little more potential than the overnight models depicted.

I'll say! Here in Chesterland, we just got over an inch. Snow bands this afternoon were weird. They looked all sliced up. Was this caused by shearing at a different altitude? Looks like there is little moisture headed this way for the next week. Bone dry...

Latest ensembles do show some possible clipper opportunities in the next couple of weeks, so there's that. Caveat, all can totally change in 6-8 hours, Lol. However, there's been some persistence in the ensembles over the past day or two and the MJO looks, as of now, to stay in phase 7 and even 8 for the next two weeks. Optimistic here.

What's really weird is that we've really lost out a lot on lake effect. Part of the reason, IMHO, is the prevalence of a +NAO over the last several winters. With a +NAO, the trough axis tends to stay to our west and the resulting cutters only bring flurries as there is little residual moisture after a storm cuts into Wisconsin or Michigan. Also if LES conditions are better (more moisture and arctic air) a +NAO can result in a more WSW flow sending the LES to Buffalo. Note, the NAO was mostly negative in Dec 2020 and we had not one but two awesome snowstorms.

Interesting that NWS CLE has 1-2" Thurs nite and 1-2" for Friday. Would be nice if we could at least winter things up with 2-4" of snow. More snow forecast early next week, lasting from Sunday nite thru Tuesday.

Warm tongue of death (WTOD): eastward moving warm air hits the west Appalachians and is forced northward. Especially bad in the eastern 2/3s of OH. Storm doesn't necessarily have to be a Cutter to do this...

This upcoming event looks like a total dud. Look for the forecast accumulations to be reduced to the customary, as of late, an inch or less. A term I thoroughly dislike.

Don't forget Tennessee...

Yeah, for the most part it was a dry (relatively), disorganized event. Higher sun angles during the daytime at this time of year often enhance the convection/subsidence process creating these dumb fleeting cells when one minute it's a whiteout and the next, the sun's out.

A clipper is progged to bring some snow to Cleveland (CLE) area starting very early Friday morning and continuing throughout the day into Friday evening. I see Friday as having periods of rain, rain/snow mix and all wet snow later in the day. Friday evening, wet snow could accumulate 1-2", especially north of the Ohio Turnpike. Additional lake effect snow for the snowbelt (East Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula counties) could get anywhere from an inch in Cleveland's Eastern burbs (East Cuyahoga) to locally 3+ inches in Ashtabula county. ...Stay tuned...

As early as Wednesday afternoon, I didn't have a good feeling about this. Then, looked like the cold air adv. was a little slow and dry air adv. was somewhat aggressive. I smelled a bust. How big, I didn't know then, but I had my doubts about anything over 5-10". The LES cells on Thurs/Fri were disorganized/"pop-cornish" and fast moving which is common with late-season LES events. My best snowfall came on Friday Night when I picked up around 3". My storm total was 5-6".

Have you looked at https://weathermodels.com/ ? Their prices are reasonable for hobbyist and even commercial users. There are just as many models and maybe even more than what WXBell offers. I am cancelling my WXBell subscription and restarting the WX Models one.

I usually use the same thing. Used to have more locations and storm totals.

Hi, Back again after a long time away... Anybody else notice the snowfall reports from CLE are scattered and out of date?

Hey! Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner. Taking a guess, id say Chesterland has had about 55” (give or take a few inches) this year. How about Russell?

Could it be climatology balancing out the snowy 2000s?

Well, CLE broke the 30" mark for the season...

Well, CLE broke the 30" mark for the season...