winter_rules

Dave, You describe it well, except Lowville and Boonville often have similar “lower” snow depths. Basically follow NYS Rte 12 from Boonville to Lowville and then offset maybe +/-3 miles on each side (East and West) to define the Black River Valley that always has much less snow. It’s a combination of: A) Lower elevation and the temperature and precipitation effects that come with that, and; b) Picture a westerly wind coming off Lake Ontario with a nice lake effect plume (the one TugHillMatt has been waiting for). The air upslopes up Tug Hill, then downslopes down into the valley, then upslopes again into the Adirondacks. A north/south line from Brantingham to, say, Forestport is where you often start to see the snow depth becoming impressive again.

As someone who plays in the snow as much as I can, I think the overall frustration this winter in NY and the Northeast is the repeated thaws that seem to be happening more than once per week for the past several weeks. Total snowfall isn’t far off “normal”, but that doesn’t mean much when snowpack is repeatedly reduced or even wiped out completely in between snowfalls. Snowpack, not total snowfall, is what matters to anyone who “uses” the snow for hobbies. To that point, this is what TugHillMatt should try to focus on - his consistent snowpack which might increase or decrease but never really disappears until April. This is nearly always the case in his location and points North and East from him. I was on the East side of Tug Hill and then over toward Forestport/White Lake/Old Forge yesterday and Tug Hill, as always this time of the year, has plenty of snow on the ground and 6ft snowbanks along the “snow tunnels”, i.e. roads. This is in +/-2,000ft ASL areas that haven’t had any major snowfalls (the late January heavy lake effect stayed North of the area I was in). The Black River Valley is a different story of course, then snowpack increases again heading East of the valley into the Adirondacks. Long story short, enjoy the snow when it’s here because, this year, it might not last more than a day!

In NW Delaware County we had about 9 or 10in by 3AM, then switched to sleet and freezing rain and actually reached 33° at some point this morning! Down to 23° now and back to all snow. This storm will provide a solid base on top of frozen ground for outdoor activities. It was interesting because, for the past several days, the models showed us in a mix for several hours, just like what actually happened. However, most of the forecasts did not seem to acknowledge that possibility until late yesterday. It’s surprising because the warm air always seems to push a little farther north than the models show, and they were showing this for many days leading up to it. I have concluded that meteorologists must be eternal optimists just like snowmobilers and skiers!

Although this weather has been/will be boring, this is very good for us in the Susquehanna/Delaware River watersheds (and I think most of upstate NY). We needed a prolonged cold/dry spell to let water run off. 1.5 weeks ago I was afraid we were one good rain event away from major flooding. As much as I love snow, I’m considering us lucky to be getting this dry weather.

A little late with this as we are currently thawing, but I measured just over 2in of ice on our pond yesterday and walked out on it on Nov 24th! This property has been in our family since 1960 and my father and uncle think this may be the earliest date to walk on the pond in that time. Regardless, it’s impressive for this time of year and a nice reminder that us snow lovers are getting spoiled by this pattern.

Light snow in Binghamton at 2:51PM.

No snow in Binghamton as of 2:10 PM. Light snow has begun in Elmira according to one of my crews. It seems like there is some dry air to overcome so don’t expect the snow to fly with the front edge of the radar. Incidentally, I live in Delaware County which is one of the counties in the “WWA hole” surrounded by WSW. It will be interesting to see what transpires over the next 18 hours!

I was just going to ask what the risk is for that timeframe. I’m trying to not look past the current event, but that potential storm would affect work plans. This March has been very impressive for the greater Catskills area. I’m in western Delaware County and the snowpack is approaching impressive especially considering that we haven’t been hit hard by any of these snowstorms and have been basically nickel and diming our way to a decent snowpack.....in March! And there is more currently falling with another decent storm possible in a few days! It has been a long time since we have had a pattern like this.