Chip
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Posts posted by Chip
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2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:
Shear still looks the question
Agreed... if we get enough shear I think there could be trouble.
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3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:
Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAY01 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-MAY 10.1 4.0 0 578 560 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 22.7 3.6 0 579 562 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 19.6 14.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 14.1 8.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 15.3 7.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 565 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 25.0 8.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 575 566 MON 00Z 03-MAY 19.7 13.4 0 0.01 0.00 0.01 572 566 MON 06Z 03-MAY 17.4 16.1 258 0.07 0.06 0.01 569 565 MON 12Z 03-MAY 18.3 17.8 303 0.22 0.14 0.08 569 565 MON 18Z 03-MAY 23.0 20.4 1914 0.34 0.29 0.05 573 568 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 23.2 20.2 1941 0.09 0.06 0.02 575 571 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 19.2 18.8 1487 0.31 0.25 0.06 577 569 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 18.3 17.9 1547 0.26 0.26 0.00 577 569 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 24.5 20.6 1286 0.38 0.33 0.06 577 571 WED 00Z 05-MAY 21.9 20.1 971 0.02 0.01 0.01 575 570 WED 06Z 05-MAY 19.2 19.0 640 0.85 0.69 0.16 572 567 WED 12Z 05-MAY 13.8 12.9 8 0.05 0.01 0.04 572 562 WED 18Z 05-MAY 18.3 10.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 560 THU 00Z 06-MAY 16.8 9.4 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 559 THU 06Z 06-MAY 10.8 8.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 556 THU 12Z 06-MAY 10.1 6.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 571 554 THU 18Z 06-MAY 15.2 4.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 551 FRI 00Z 07-MAY 13.9 9.4 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 561 547 FRI 06Z 07-MAY 10.0 6.9 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 557 545 FRI 12Z 07-MAY 10.8 8.8 13 0.01 0.01 0.00 553 543 FRI 18Z 07-MAY 13.8 9.7 61 0.15 0.12 0.03 554 544 SAT 00Z 08-MAY 9.7 7.4 13 0.12 0.07 0.06 554 541 SAT 06Z 08-MAY 6.7 3.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 553 539 SAT 12Z 08-MAY 5.3 1.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 555 539
And from what I can tell a longer threat as well it seems. I will be curious if it keeps this on the next run
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Just now, PowellVolz said:
How much degree do you need? Seems like I remember 30° or something?
.Need not sure..... I do know when you get near 90 that is optimal.
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7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:
Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks
Yes absolutely!!
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Here is the new GFS sounding… A couple things I noticed is the critical angle is rather high and in the zone you look for strong tornadoes based on research. I also noticed the STP came up a little bit on this new run of GFS. Granted looking at all the small stuff is really pointless at this juncture (way too far out) however I will be curious to see how this trends going forward.
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47 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:
Where’s that T Skew from? Location?
.Central TN.
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Well we may want to look at the 28th or 29th for some severe potential
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Just now, PowellVolz said:
I will say the best shear is a little further East than mods were saying.
So where do you think the best shear/ instability is in TN?
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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:
I don’t agree with that
.That’s cool but that is what makes weather so interesting. Could be correct or could be wrong but we will see.
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May 3-5 Severe
in Tennessee Valley
Posted
New GFS near Murfreesboro TN