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Chip

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Posts posted by Chip

  1. 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

    Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS

     

    
    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591
    
                                                12Z MAY01
                     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    6 HR    6 HR     500    1000 
                     TMP     DEW    CAPE     QPF     CVP     NCP     HGT     500 
                     (C)     (C)    J/KG    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (DM)     THK 
    SAT 12Z 01-MAY  10.1     4.0       0                             578     560    
    SAT 18Z 01-MAY  22.7     3.6       0                             579     562    
    SUN 00Z 02-MAY  19.6    14.1       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     578     566    
    SUN 06Z 02-MAY  14.1     8.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     578     566    
    SUN 12Z 02-MAY  15.3     7.2       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     576     565    
    SUN 18Z 02-MAY  25.0     8.1       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     575     566    
    MON 00Z 03-MAY  19.7    13.4       0    0.01    0.00    0.01     572     566    
    MON 06Z 03-MAY  17.4    16.1     258    0.07    0.06    0.01     569     565    
    MON 12Z 03-MAY  18.3    17.8     303    0.22    0.14    0.08     569     565    
    MON 18Z 03-MAY  23.0    20.4    1914    0.34    0.29    0.05     573     568    
    TUE 00Z 04-MAY  23.2    20.2    1941    0.09    0.06    0.02     575     571    
    TUE 06Z 04-MAY  19.2    18.8    1487    0.31    0.25    0.06     577     569    
    TUE 12Z 04-MAY  18.3    17.9    1547    0.26    0.26    0.00     577     569    
    TUE 18Z 04-MAY  24.5    20.6    1286    0.38    0.33    0.06     577     571    
    WED 00Z 05-MAY  21.9    20.1     971    0.02    0.01    0.01     575     570    
    WED 06Z 05-MAY  19.2    19.0     640    0.85    0.69    0.16     572     567    
    WED 12Z 05-MAY  13.8    12.9       8    0.05    0.01    0.04     572     562    
    WED 18Z 05-MAY  18.3    10.3       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     573     560    
    THU 00Z 06-MAY  16.8     9.4      18    0.00    0.00    0.00     573     559    
    THU 06Z 06-MAY  10.8     8.0       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     572     556    
    THU 12Z 06-MAY  10.1     6.4       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     571     554    
    THU 18Z 06-MAY  15.2     4.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     567     551    
    FRI 00Z 07-MAY  13.9     9.4      32    0.00    0.00    0.00     561     547    
    FRI 06Z 07-MAY  10.0     6.9       1    0.00    0.00    0.00     557     545    
    FRI 12Z 07-MAY  10.8     8.8      13    0.01    0.01    0.00     553     543    
    FRI 18Z 07-MAY  13.8     9.7      61    0.15    0.12    0.03     554     544    
    SAT 00Z 08-MAY   9.7     7.4      13    0.12    0.07    0.06     554     541    
    SAT 06Z 08-MAY   6.7     3.3       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     553     539    
    SAT 12Z 08-MAY   5.3     1.6       0    0.00    0.00    0.00     555     539 

    And from what I can tell a longer threat as well it seems. I will be curious if it keeps this on the next run

    • Like 1
  2. 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

    Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks

    Yes absolutely!!

    • Like 1
  3. I understand that the NAM tends to be very bullish this far out however given the current trends I am actually kind of surprised that this hasn’t gotten a little bit more attention yet. I added the part about critical angle because I noticed that the majority of the soundings are around 90. 

    FE047D34-C55C-4E4D-98ED-B8885539DDB3.jpeg

    00C86C27-7EDE-47AD-A0BF-2289CC437A32.jpeg

    • Like 1
  4. Here is the new GFS sounding… A couple things I noticed is the critical angle is rather high and in the zone you look for strong tornadoes based on research. I also noticed the STP came up a little bit on this new run of GFS. Granted looking at all the small stuff is really pointless at this juncture (way too far out) however I will be curious to see how this trends going forward.

    AF64CEA2-D33D-4853-8243-F85340B6BDCD.jpeg

    • Like 1
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