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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    They also dropped our amounts in the text of the advisory back to 2-4.
  2. TimB
    PBZ upgraded those Ohio counties to a warning.
  3. TimB
    That early band looks like it might clip the south hills. Probably no love for those of us who are north.
  4. TimB
    NWS introduced the “heavy at times” wording to the 4pm forecast package.
  5. TimB
    Has the disadvantage of being west for an event that’s going to perform best south and east. But can’t rule it out.
  6. TimB
    HRRR is starting to look kinda meh. Hopefully that’s not a sign.
  7. TimB
    I would accept a solution that settles somewhere around the 3” that the NWS is calling for. I’d love 4-6, but that seems like an unrealistic expectation.
  8. TimB
    I’m liking the way this is trending. Advisory level event on most to all guidance at the moment.
  9. TimB
    Where do I sign for the 12z HRRR?
  10. TimB
    Not going to clog up the snow thread, but it’s funny that PIT apparently gusted to 60 at 6:33pm and then a wind advisory was issued 14 minutes later.
  11. TimB
    NAM looked fine too.
  12. TimB
    HRRR improved again at 0z. Now up to a 2-3” type event.
  13. TimB
    18z HRRR was a significant improvement over 12z.
  14. TimB
    That’s fine, we still have 95-96 to replace in the normals.
  15. TimB
  16. TimB
    With PIT sitting at 11.6 for the season, that’s a steep climb.
  17. TimB
    One chance at meaningful snowfall in 2 years! Hope it somehow works out for us.
  18. TimB
    And that’s what it boils down to. A top 5 futility season would be a lot easier to stomach if we didn’t have something eerily similar last year, in a totally different ENSO base state. Could I be less invested in this hobby? Of course, we all could. But even if I weren’t obsessively watching models or looking at stats showing historic winter warmth or lack of snow, these seasons have been bad enough that even the casuals have to be aware that these past two winters have been epically bad.
  19. TimB
    Miss south, next weekend’s storm cuts, another ridge after that, curtains.
  20. TimB
    It’s not going to be an advisory type event. At best it’s the 1-2 type thing you mention. I take that back, there are still a few models like the RGEM that want this to be a low end advisory thing.
  21. TimB
    We have a long way to go if we have any hope of getting out of the worst 20 or even 10 snowfall seasons. Ignoring the fact that 14 of these top 20 seasons were observed at a different site, we’re looking at 3 of the 5 worst seasons at PIT occurring in the past 5 years unless we get another 10” of snow between now and the end of the season. Still need 5” to even prevent this from being the worst in modern history.
  22. TimB
    It’s gone. The secret was that there was never going to be an extended cold stretch because those don’t exist anymore.
  23. TimB
    There is not a single location on this list that is at or above normal to date. Pretty sad.
  24. TimB
    The problem with the weekend storm is there’s not model agreement at this point that the storm will even happen, let alone what areas it would hit, and we’re getting awfully close to the point where that matters.
  25. TimB
    We’ll know very soon if the GFS moves away from cutter.
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