bobbutts

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Now we don't have to rely solely on Scooter when he's visiting the lake for complaints about our snow forecasts!

Well when you call it over when the event starts, sure. We still have you for 3 to 4 inches overnight and that is pretty much the consensus of models too. 

Things are a little ragged now, but the forecast is for the DGZ to saturate more thoroughly like 03-06z as the low gets a little deeper towards the Cape. That's your window for most of the accumulation.

Also your wsw had 4-7" forecast for Bow which will probably verify towards the lower end.  I never saw any forecast calling for 10" def not from nws.

Final mow to get rid of leaves completed.  Hoping tomorrow marks the beginning of continuous snow cover for awhile.

Watching Des Moines TV https://www.kcci.com/nowcast

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I was playing golf in Amherst and we heard and felt it. Sounded like an explosion. Really strange they haven’t found the source yet. 

 Yeah, seems it was felt over all of SNH and into MA and ME.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

What time exactly was that? I don’t recall anything. I’ve been gone for the last 90 mins, but I was probably home when you heard the bang.

It was within a few minutes of 11:25.

@dendrite Did you feel/hear a big bang around 45 mins ago?  Any idea what it was?

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

"Drought in New England" is typically an oxymoron.

Easiest forecasts to make in NE without even looking at any guidance are: "drought will end soon" and "not a direct hit from that tropical system".

I'd like to hear much about this Jokko guy in the main thread.

Turn to the north that people were looking for hasn't materialized yet.

35 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

he might be dead

Alive.... for now

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just wish they put it higher up, its now an underwater cam.

Wish it was higher resolution.

Just now, KPITSnow said:

WOW! Means probably a 15 foot surge already!

 

No, Morgerman's hotel which is currently high and dry, not the grand isle stream.

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

he might be dead

If he dies, it better be during the live stream.

3 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

yikes…single story hotel 

 

Found the spot.  9' asl per google earth.

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I don't know LA geography and trying to compare where Grand Isle is with relation to the eye.  If I'm correct, the eye will pass just west of there.  Am I looking at the right place between the webcam map and the satellite loop?

Their site has an overlay map at https://www.severestudios.com/

You can see the cam locations and the radar on the map.

Not downplaying it but hopefully the late bloom will limit the surge some.

9 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Historically yes it did.

It took a while for it to manifest. But hey, I was watching weather channel and landfall was not what we were expecting. The after effects were more than anyone imagined.

 

I remember seeing the decaying appearance on satellite and posting something along the lines of New Orleans dodging the bullet and getting lucky.  I was thinking about the winds and not the overall situation.  We still seem to obsess over top wind speeds and barely discuss surge.

48 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Indeed. They weren’t lying when they said climate change is going to cost trillions. What’s nuts is that Louisiana is a relatively cheap example. The east coast of Florida will one day have its hurricane barrage and that will be so much worse. 

Sure are plenty of expensive homes and businesses there.  In terms of loss of life and loss of homes for people who don't own 6 of them I worry about the gulf coast more.

Back in the 80's we had a converted Chevy Van 20 (still remember the badge).  The engine died after 20k or 30k and they would not warranty it.  I don't remember what happened in the end but my dad and then by extension me never bought another GM vehicle after that.

5 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

Yes that is great. Pretty rare for engines to go like that these days. I browsed some Kia forums and wow. Some of the 2.0 and 2.4 engines only lasted 30-50k miles then in 2017/2018 Kia/Hyundai started acknowledging the issue.  

Ouch.. IIRC they have had a 10 year warranty covering those years.  That's pretty crazy, usually the warranty is timed to run out before common major issues like that.

If we're competing for longest outage I'll put in my entry.  Was out over a month in FL for Charlie.  It absolutely sucked for the couple days we stayed there, so hot and humid and still and ultra buggy and fire ants outside.  We didn't stick around for it though.  Luckily was able to borrow a snowbird's condo on the other side of the state.

Of course loss of life and injury is the worst and destruction of property comes after that but extended outages are definitely not fun.  Also note that it's a freaking mess on the roads when there are no traffic lights.

5 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said:

This thing is as much a hurricane as Cam Newton is a good pocket QB

That would indicate that it used to be a good hurricane.  This thing is more like Sam Darnold.

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can’t wait for this to fall apart before making landfall. Take models out of it….what happens to a disorganized tropical storm drifting slowly over cold water?

Based on past mistakes I tend to avoid forecasting and poo pooing storms before the impact is known, but It truly looks like crap at the moment.  Gloria was 145mph and Bob was 115 before they started weakening and both moved faster than this is forecast to.  The slow speed logically would mean that there may be big rainfall totals, but that appears to be setting up west of our area if at all.  If the bar is for widespread power outages and small flooding in SNE this will probably clear it, but beyond that seems very doubtful. 

Time to upgrade the thread title.

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Haven’t had to dish out for a genny here.  May eventually but power has never been out more than a day.

Best time to buy is right after you suffer through an outage.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember it well...completely unremarkable NW of Boston. Gloria was much more noteworthy.

Same recollection on the North Shore.  Gloria did a bunch of tree damage and power was out for days.