Juturna

Big beautiful flakes falling in Port Jefferson

Windy AF on the Island tonight

Now I just need some Suffolk county thunder snow at some point and I'll be all set.

Time for people to jump off the ledge again. Could be bad data, initialization, the double barrel making it chase the more east low which may not even exist. It's nowcast/shortrange time and let the pieces fall where they may.

The run to run swings are just not healthy lol, take a blend.

No flakes yet in Port Jefferson.

Not sure what to look at to determine this so I'll defer to the knowledgeable posters ...what are the chances of some thunder snow with this system on LI?

11 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I don’t see how it these trends keep up that upton don’t hoist blizzard warnings by the afternoon 

They said they were waiting for one more model round for consistency to do blizz warnings. 

" In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzardh eadlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the area that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday

afternoon with this system."

Man I remember yesterday when the Debbie downers threw in the towel...

Working 7am to 6pm Saturday. But if it's cancelled for snow I get paid anyhow. Praying to the weenie gods here in central Suffolk. My luck, we do get the storm but they don't cancel and I'm snowed in an empty school in Port Jeff for the weekend.

So under the assumption that this does occur...is there any sort of consensus on a start time for the metro/LI area? Seems like it is coming in quicker and leaving quicker than it appeared early in the week. 

What do you think the timeline is for snow to begin/will be heaviest in the metro area?

Finally down to freezing in Holtsville

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The mega-band that was progged to stall over LI...I don't think that's gonna happen.  That bad boy is gonna blow into CT and then some.

That's not the mega band, that won't even be around till tomorrow.

Still virga here in Holbrook, Long Island 

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Cloudy 22 degrees in Holbrook

Hey someone from my neck of the woods! What's you're feeling for us?

Just now, allgame830 said:

Do you think it will end quicker then expected or just lengthen the duration more?!?

I feel like they always come in earlier and leave earlier. 

12 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

Little worried about Bernie Raynos forecast of mixing issues and the dreaded dry slots in New York City and Long Island keeping snow totals down to 6 to 12 inches, even though I’m in the lower Hudson Valley and in a good place, I’m worried about mixing issues here also in Rockland County, any thoughts on Raynos forecast?

I just don't see the mixing being an issue until after the heaviest amounts have moved through. I expect some freezing drizzle to glaze the snow that fell. But what do I know 

I don't mind a little rain on top of the snow pack making it more of a bitch to clean up. I'm trying to get off work Monday and Tuesday

NWS Upton not buying into the warmer NAM from earlier.

Quote

The surface low will move NNE along the Mid Atlantic coastline
and then eastward off the Delmarva Wednesday night into
Thursday. Given the strong Arctic high to the north with
surface and low level temperatures at or below freezing, most
of the area should see an all snow event. The last several runs
of the NAM put this somewhat into doubt with a more amplified
upper trough and stronger mid level jet bringing in warmer air
aloft, also a dry slot late Wed night. With the ECMWF actually
trending colder and remaining slower, did not entirely buy this
scenario except for the lower boroughs of NYC and the south
shore/east end of Long Island.

The main change made with this update was trying to identify the
best potential for any mixing to occur. Though the Twin Forks
likely will mix with rain or sleet at some point, the warm nose
at 850mb was fairly minimal, becoming basically isothermal for a
few hours. This would occur in the middle of the storm so heavy
snow will have already occurred resulting in at least 3-6" of
snow. Obviously the exact intensity of the precipitation and the
ultimate track of the low play a significant role in
determining the strength of the warm nose at 850mb and ultimate
duration and potential to mix or change over to rain, so trends
in models regarding precipitation types will be monitored and
updated accordingly.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

everyone's back in after all the moaning this morning...LOL

On the whole, we are a lot more "doom and gloom" compared to the other subforums. Comes with the territory of weather abuse we've gone through. Just need to keep a level head as best as possible. The runs earlier today just seemed a little TOO north, and I'll be glad if that ends up being the case. 

Should be a nice storm for most. And after the drought we had, its a great storm, really.

1 minute ago, Njdoc747 said:

Why are totals going up when trends are showing otherwise. Srry im a complete newbie 

Well that is from two hours ago, so probably will come down later.

Just now, David-LI said:

If the media hype was enough that I can get a day off from work , stay home enjoying a hot chocolate and building a snowman with the kids, then I’ll take my 2-4 inches if it comes to that. 

You're not wrong. A snow day would be much appreciated, even if there ends up not being any snow IMBY (not that snow days truly exist with virtual teaching being an option now), still, one day not having to be around Covid kids is a bonus.

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

honestly the last day everything has been pushing NW. so its really not one run.

Not nearly to that extent.

Just now, Allsnow said:

Disgusting nam run if you want big snow around the metro. It’s either on to something or it will correct as we get closer 

I'll wait for some consistency before jumping the ledge after one run.