StormfanaticInd

50 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013:

 

BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013:

 

Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now. 

 

 

Very good point 

Storms getting ready to enter western Indiana 

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

May is overrated, Aug./Oct. are where it's at.

Facts

Illinois does seem to be the prime spot for tomorrow 

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/isolated severe storms -- including potential for hail,
   locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to
   spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early,
   north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes through the
   evening/overnight hours Monday and into early Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough digging south-southeastward across California and
   the Great Basin Monday will evolve into a closed low, which is
   expected deepen and turn eastward overnight reaching the
   southwestern Utah vicinity Tuesday morning.  Ahead of this system, a
   negatively tilted short-wave trough will be shifting northeastward
   across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys during the
   day, before crossing the Upper Great Lakes region overnight. 
   Meanwhile, ridging will remain in place -- aligned roughly along the
   Appalachians.

   At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. trough
   will sweep across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners states. 
   Meanwhile, a cold front shifting eastward out of the southern Plains
   toward the Mississippi Valley will weaken with time, while an
   associated/weak frontal low advances northeastward from Missouri to
   Wisconsin/Upper Michigan through the period.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Upper Great Lakes...
   Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
   start of the period from western Illinois/Missouri
   south-southwestward to southeastern Texas, ahead of an advancing
   cold front.  A couple of stronger storms ongoing early could pose
   local risk for severe weather.  After a few hours of local/limited
   risk, diurnal heating through late morning and into the afternoon
   will permit sufficient destabilization to allow gradual
   reintensification/redevelopment of storms, from Illinois to the
   Mississippi Delta region, then spreading northward and northeastward
   through the afternoon.  Though flow aloft will remain largely
   south-southwesterly/unidirectional, sufficient speed shear combined
   with weak veering through the lowest 1 km or so suggests that
   locally severe/rotating storms will evolve, with threat for damaging
   wind gusts, along with some hail risk and potential for a couple of
   tornadoes across a relatively broad geographic region.

   A bit more uncertainty exists with northward extent, and into the
   evening hours, into the Great Lakes region.  While ascent will
   spread across this region supporting a continuation of convection
   through the evening and into the overnight hours, less substantial
   instability -- diminishing further in tandem with diurnal cooling --
   suggests that severe risk will wane gradually from late evening
   onward.

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA 

"A vigorous upper low will be ejecting up from the
southwest during this period, bringing showers and thunderstorms to
the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. SPC now has the area in
a slight risk for severe storms with this system. This is definitely
plausible as a high shear, low CAPE situation. NAM sfc CAPE is less
than 2000 J/kg, but bulk shear increases to 50 kts Monday evening.
Damaging wind, hail, and even a few tornadoes will be possible."

Monday is getting interesting 

KIND

The unseasonably warm weather will continue for much of the upcoming
week even as we transition back into a more active regime. A broad
upper trough will remain anchored over the Rockies and High Plains
through much of the first half of the week...with pieces of energy
aloft kicking out downstream of the trough.

The first of these pieces of energy will move into the western Great
Lakes late Monday into Monday night...helping to generate a surface
wave over the southern Plains late Sunday before lifting northeast
into Wisconsin by Monday evening. Expect a warm...breezy day for the
forecast area Monday with rain chances increasing by late day as a
trailing frontal boundary accompanies the surface low and swings
into the area Monday night. The overall model suite has come into
better alignment on the track of the features at the surface and
aloft with just timing differences now present. However...the
orientation and track of the system does present some potential for
convective impacts across central Indiana late Monday afternoon and
evening and a higher ceiling for severe weather as well with modest
BL shear and instability present ahead of the front.

At this point...potential setting up for predominantly linear
convection ahead of the front Monday afternoon and evening with
damaging winds. Model soundings though do show a nice amount of
directional shear through the boundary layer and storm relative
helicities over 200 m2/s2 in a narrow axis ahead of the front which
would support rotating updrafts and an elevated risk for tornadoes.
This will be something to monitor over the weekend as the parameters
associated with this system align further.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TO LOWER MICHIGAN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/locally severe storms -- including potential for hail,
   locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to
   spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early,
   north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes into the
   evening/overnight hours Sunday and into early Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Western U.S. troughing will continue to dig south-southeastward
   Sunday, eventually evolving into a closed low surrounded by cyclonic
   flow which should encompass the entire Intermountain West by the end
   of the period.  Ahead of this digging system, a negatively tilted
   short-wave trough will eject north-northeastward across the Mid
   Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, and into the Upper Great Lakes
   overnight.

   At the surface, a cold front ahead of the western trough will cross
   the Great Basin/northern Intermountain region during the first half
   of the period, reaching a position from the northern Plains to the
   Four Corners states by the end of the period.

   Farther east, a frontal wave will shift north-northeastward from
   Missouri to Wisconsin, while the cold front makes only minor
   eastward progress through the period.

   ...Lower Ohio/Mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to Lower
   Michigan...
   Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across the
   Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley area at the start of the
   period, with local severe risk possibly accompanying a few of the
   stronger updrafts.  As the upper trough sweeps north-northeastward
   in an increasingly negatively tilted manner through the day, and a
   surface frontal wave moves across Missouri to northern Illinois,
   surface heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of ongoing
   convection through late morning should allow ample destabilization
   to foster redevelopment/reintensification of convection ahead of the
   low/front.

   Given strong flow with height ahead of the upper system, veering
   gradually through mid levels, shear will support updraft rotation,
   resulting in scattered strong/severe storms capable of producing all
   severe hazards.  Risk should gradually spread northward, across the
   Midwest and extending into lower Michigan through the evening and
   into the overnight hours.

   ..Goss.. 10/09/2021

KIND 

Models are starting to come to a better consensus for the first low
which will bring a line of thunderstorms along a cold (or really,
slightly cooler) front across the region from late Monday evening
into Tuesday. Tight pressure gradients ahead of this system will
bring breezy winds to the area during the day Monday as well. Will
have to keep an eye for the potential of severe weather Monday
night... seeing CAPE values around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear values
around 50. There is still much to be seen and refined until then,
but the potential for some embedded severe storms is not out of the
question.

17 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I've been banking on that signal for the past few years and it hasn't delivered at all.  Was huge during the 13-14 winter but that was it.  

I think it will be huge this winter. The wildcard of course is the nao

Severe weather is looking likely in the Plains and maybe for us to.

38 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That 500mb height pattern would be gorgeous in May.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Would be epic!

42 minutes ago, wxisfun said:

Some people are really getting desperate for cooler weather I guess.

Brief cool down is coming 

35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Like I said before, the typhoon recurve is really not doing much for us in this case.

The pattern change (with the introduction of a -PNA) has been underway in a large scale for several days now. And as I mentioned before, there really isn’t going to be any sort of cool down. Temps will continue to be above to well above average around here for the foreseeable future (through mid-month).


.

I suspect this trough could push further east and really cool us down for a couple of days before the next storm

PDO region has really cooled over the past several weeks. **Could** prove to be a negative for this winter.

Looks like the recurve of the typhoon will translate into a pretty sizable fall storm with a brief cool down followed by possibly more storms. 

It is looking extremely active for the next 2 weeks

Definitely looking like la nina on the models

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

That’s not always how it works... And it won’t be in this case re: cooler weather.


.

Of course. Weather is a very complicated beast with many moving parts. Any of which can take over. Let's revisit this in 6 to 10 days.

Recurve typhoon suggest a trough and possibly some much cooler weather on the way

19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Having to contend with a se ridge wouldn't be a strange concept particularly in a Nina.  

No doubt. Just depends on how strong