Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
Areas affected...parts of west-central GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...
Valid 260326Z - 260430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado potential will maximize near the GA/AL border and
eventually spread into the greater Atlanta exurbia through 1230 am
EDT. It is uncertain how far east the higher probabilities for a
tornado will eventually develop due to increasingly marginal
low-level moisture with east extent.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates mid 60s deg F dewpoints
straddling the GA/AL border in west-central GA to the east of a
supercell with a history of producing tornadoes (likely strong) over
east-central AL. The latest RAP/NAM indicate lowest 100 mb mean
mixing ratios increasing into the 13-14 g/kg range over the next
hour with MLCAPE increasing from 750 J/kg to 1000-1200 J/kg. The
KFFC VAD showed 500 m2/s2 0-1km SRH within the moist/sufficiently
unstable airmass. Current thinking is the increasingly rich
low-level moisture (dewpoints rising from 64-65 to 66) may enable a
greater risk for a tornado over the next hour or so.
..Smith.. 03/26/2021
Anyone know if the first destructive long-track sup could have left an outflow boundary...? That sup would ride it for miles and miles if that were the case.
Reminds me of when on 4/27 people were talking about how lucky we were that the tornado didn't hit south metro instead...
Definitely not trying to suggest it's at EF4-EF5 strength, just the track of it (though I fear it could continue to strengthen)