WhirlingWx

Most intense weather I've driven through so far during my couple years of driving

Did you have any damage?

pretty nice radar structure on the tornado warned storm west of Waco

I see nothing wrong with them continuing to be bullish, after all, our talk of a perhaps tempered threat is mostly for I-20 and north, but south of that is still within the FWD coverage area

I'm not sure that the warm front has moved any more than 10 miles north in the past 3 hours Again, this is more of an observation for MBY. Still a threat that can materialize to the south imo

The storms near and south of Wichita Falls look like they're building south, they might impact northern DFW in a few hours at that rate. Might temper the threat for areas north of Dallas - Fort Worth later on, but still unsure.

A little storm along the cold front to my southwest might bring some hail my way if it keeps strengthening. My car is pretty exposed right now and I'm unable to do anything about it

Storm is tornado warned now moving into the south OKC metro

Think it's important to mention the deadly tornado in Bollinger County, MO, because I haven't seen any of that in here. 5 killed by that strong tornado (prelim high-end EF2) after 3 AM. Tragic and yet another example of how "it only takes one" despite the event technically not reaching its ceiling.

SVR for Jack, Wise, and Montague counties atm, already warned for golf ball sized hail

Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Mod (40%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (70%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

Lots of little cells going up between Mineral Wells and Vernon, so far

1957 F3, right?

Graphic for the above MD discussion... can't help but comment on how I really like the style for these, haha

FWD:

Trying to check hodographs in DFW valid around 6 PM but uh.. this happening for anyone else?

10% sig added

near Murphy. I was in my car at a park that has great views to the west, and I was seeing power flashes all along the line of storms, including from the general direction of where the tornado warning was issued.

I've seen dozens of power flashes in the past 15 or so minutes from my location.

iirc some day in May 2015 had a moderate risk (might have even been tornado-driven as well). Anyways, I think we're approaching the points where obs > models, though I can't help but notice that recent HRRR runs really blow up convection (in the form of supercells) west/northwest of DFW, like in the area that has the severe thunderstorm watch atm. Wind fields don't look very favorable for TORs so maybe the hail threat actually maximizes there? Either way the QLCS can pose problems for us later.

I think DFW was on the southern edge of an enhanced risk for that

Some pretty serious wording on the most recent SPC outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... Just-in-time moisture return from the western Gulf is still anticipated ahead of a powerful shortwave trough ejecting from the Southwest to the Lower MO Valley. 60+ F surface dew points remain confined from the Piney Woods of east TX to the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau of west TX as of 16Z. Guidance continues to differ with the northern extent of this richer moisture by evening in KS/OK beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Widespread cloudiness is also evident over much of the southern Great Plains, although clearing should occur from west to east across the High Plains. The net result should be a narrow plume of surface-based instability along the dryline from southwest KS to west TX between 21-00Z. Scattered convection will break out after 21Z along the dryline and become supercellular towards 00Z given very favorably enlarged low to mid-level hodographs. Further moistening into the evening should result in the most favorable potential for supercell tornadoes in southwest OK between 00-03Z, in addition to very large hail. Convection will likely grow quickly upscale into a solid QLCS, accelerating east-northeast with embedded supercells and mesovortices. Extreme low-level shear profiles in conjunction with strengthening of 700-mb winds to around 90 kts behind the line should result in widespread severe wind gusts. Embedded swaths of 80-110 mph winds both straightline and rotating are likely, with stronger speeds into the EF2 range possible, until the QLCS outpaces the richer moisture in the OK/KS/MO border area overnight. Scattered damaging winds from strong to severe gusts may linger through the early morning across MO towards the Mid-MS Valley, despite little to no buoyancy, given the intense low-level wind fields. ..Grams/Wendt.. 02/26/2023

Powder here near Murphy

I can definitely see the elevated threat for NE Texas (for both damaging winds and tornadoes). As for DFW, I'm still really not sure what to make of it... Seems very dependent on where the storms begin to form. A difference of 50 miles east or west could make or break the event for the metroplex.

FWD is using some interested graphics that I've never seen before (apologies that I don't know how to resize the images)