MN Transplant

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

80dbz on that cell SW of York, PA. 

Hydrometeor classification on that one is "giant hail"

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

@MN Transplant guess this was just north of you?

Emergency management and NWS employees report half dollar size hail in Falls Church per LSR

Quarter plus.  I’m scouting the field for bigger.

Best hail in my 20 years in the DC area.  Pea to marble

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Coming for @MN Transplant

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
259 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  The southwestern District of Columbia...
  Arlington County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia...
  Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 258 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Reston,
  moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

  IMPACT...Some hail damage to agriculture is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arlington, Alexandria, Reston, Annandale, Vienna, Falls Church,
  Pimmit Hills, Reagan National Airport, Mclean, Rosslyn, Crystal
  City, Howard University, Oakton, Lincolnia, Tysons Corner, Wolf
  Trap, Merrifield, Lake Barcroft, American University, and I66 and
  I495 Interchange.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

You aren’t kidding.

48 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow wasn't expecting this hot today -- Dulles reporting 84 already

Yeah, I hadn’t checked in a while.  Been to 84.9 here!

84/42 at IAD.  +17 for the high, and -1 for the low.

Looks like another easily above normal month.

Torch

0.29", which is fine since we are doing well so far this year.  

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yikes, 12 hours through NH is nuts. We had a ~50 min backup to go about 6 miles as we were leaving Monday. Stopped in Johnson City, TX, for dinner to get out of it and the local businesses were actually mostly disappointed with the lack of customers. 

I wondered about the local businesses too.  I think it was the gas stations (especially the ones with food) and hotels that really profited.  

20 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lessons for 2045 (writing these for myself)

- cirrus clouds are fake - don’t worry about them.
- probably want to spend the day before and the day after there
- pre-eclipse traffic is fake. Post-eclipse traffic is more real
- can watch from anywhere. Doesn’t matter where… just go
- if you want to film a video to show others, try and avoid crying of awe in the background lol

Adding to this, while the extra length is nice, you don’t have to be center line to enjoy totality.  

5 hours ago, Wxtrix said:

crappy phone picture does not do it justice. the sun had a black hole in the middle of it, and it was surrounded by white flames, with a red ball of fire on the bottom. and that was after the light quickly drained away leaving the aftertaste of dread. so incredible.

 

The red spot was a really interesting part of the experience.  Evidently we did see a prominence.  In my view it was at about 7 o’clock on the sun’s ring.

https://x.com/forecaster25/status/1777434179136819497?s=46&t=bA1Os5w_10i9PfsurY28aw

That was awesome

Made it to Malone, NY.  Milky skies, but better than I expected last night.  Curious how much corona I’ll get to see.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Try Plattsburgh?

The upper level cirrus isn’t bad at all in Syracuse.  We might try to outrun the mid level deck.

In Syracuse but it definitely is looking cloudy all over NY.  If it were just me, I’d take the chance and try to swoop over to northern VT/NH, but I’m not going to put my family though that!

47 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don't want this to influence anyone's plans, but I am getting increasingly pessimistic about NY.  As you step down in heights on the 12z euro, you see a gradual lowering of the cloud deck, such that any one spot is likely to be cloudy.  I'm still headed up there, but tempering my expectations.

 

And then the 3km NAM comes in a with a perfectly acceptable solution.

I don't want this to influence anyone's plans, but I am getting increasingly pessimistic about NY.  As you step down in heights on the 12z euro, you see a gradual lowering of the cloud deck, such that any one spot is likely to be cloudy.  I'm still headed up there, but tempering my expectations.

12z NAM nest wants to keep the rain together as it enters NY

Looking at the GFS is bad for my mental health 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure what “sunshine duration (1h)” precisely means, but I like that a LOT more than the cloud cover %. GFS shows 0 mins for TX, but euro is like 30-50 mins for eclipse time. 

The sunshine duration on the Euro seemed optimistic, but I'm good with that.

25 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Sorry I have to ask... What does it look like in Cleveland area?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Choose "All" under Parameter Selection and go down to Clouds.

Select Ohio under Change Map Selection.

Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY.  Yellow is good, dark is bad.

First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about.  Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds.

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

What about Litchfield Ohio.

41.1678N 82.0229W

Not bad, verbatim.  The algorithm says few clouds.  Also looks good on the NAM.  
 

Better GFS run for NY.