MN Transplant

Pup wakes me up overnight anyway

48 after a high of 49.  DCA hit 50, IAD 49.

The HRRR was straight awful the prior event, but I’d still like to see it come around on this one.  I’m not a fan of running 4 degrees warmer than the NAM right now.

Was not expecting to wake up to knocked over trash cans and stuff strewn around.  DCA and IAD gusted to 39 overnight with the frontal passage.

3km NAM has 0.4” QPF in 3 hours in the DC area.  That’s aggressive.

Just because we are showing all the models, here is NCAR’s MPAS via NSSL.  This is still in testing mode but is planning to work its way into operations in the future.  Not much granularity available, but it does at least support the 0.25”+ amounts the other models are showing.

12/11/2023 - 0.7"

1/15-16/2024 - 4.3"

1/19/24 - 3.5”

2/13/24 - 0.2"

Seasonal - 8.7”

Going to move our raised beds this year.  The birches that we planted are encroaching on the prior space.

Had 0.17” precip after the lull.  Most of it was frozen.  Ended up with 0.2” snow.  Not the ratios you want.

13 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Got a bit unlucky w timing here in immediate metro area w the changeover happening post daybreak; had changeover been at 4 am we’d have had much more accumulation even w above freezing temps and same duration of snow 

Yeah, we stopped gaining once we got closer to 9am.  Think I’ll call it 0.2”.

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Family says it’s flipped to wet snow in NW Arlington. Waiting in downtown.

It is starting to whiten up the rooftops.  Not bad.  34.3 now.

Snowflakes and 36.9 on the western DC Beltway

40/35 at DCA

Waiting for my white rain.  37.9

Probably a pipe dream, but what a beaut of a sim radar on the 01z HRRR.

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

If we generally go 6”+ would this be biggest surprise since 2000?

My bar is a sloppy inch and you are here talking about half a foot.  I’m rooting for you.

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HRRR is gonna work for anyone DC-north again.

I’d give up my Super Bowl gambling winnings for another 50 miles south though

Probably should be a flood watch up

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

18z 3k NAM IAD sounding right when it flips

0.16” precip after the switch.  Inch or less given temps.

There is about 0.25” QPF after the changeover in the DC Beltway area per the 18z HRRR.  Good news is that temps/Dp do drop to 34/33, so maybe 1-1.5” snow.  Of course, this is the optimistic model.

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I said this a couple weeks ago I think, but in my experience you can accumulate with temps 33-34 certainly. 35 is possible but really needs to be thumping. 36 and higher is just white rain. Of course rates and temps are linked and higher rates will cool the surface down some. 

Yup, matches my experience.  Now, the surface could be wrong on the HRRR obviously, but I hate seeing the DPs so high.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

What is the temp at 950? 

Doesn’t matter at that point.  White rain.

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

The 17z HRRR has it snowing at IAD with a temp/DP of 37/37.

27 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

The rest of the county is losing winter too. 

Minneapolis averages 33” year to date.  They are sitting on 7”.

19 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve considered it. A smart person would’ve booked refundable hotels in different spots and waited til a few days before to pick the best shot based on the forecast. If I pull it off… I’m probably driving somewhere the day before and sleeping in my car

That’s me.  Syracuse and Louisville, and then drive into the path early in the morning.

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If someone tries to post a snow depth map, it’s an insta-ban

How you gonna ban someone for posting a blank map?