Leesville Wx Hawk

46 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I had communicated with Van Denton of Triad Fox8 weather. He said that the forecast could have been a bigger flop as the models were calling for two feet.

The big deal looking back is that the Triad wasn’t even close.  I live just north of RDU and when I woke up, I figured we were in some trouble-we were.  The problem was that the NWS only backed down to 6-8 inches and 3 hours later went to flurries.  Southern Wake got about 2 inches.

Wake county gradient was reversed for once.  I went from a foot to flurries in my backyard.  
 

I cashed in plenty after that until recently.

It depends where you were in 93.  We only got about 4 -5 inches of snow here just north of RDU after it rained all day.

We got 21” of snow in one night in 2000.

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

I go back to the carolina crusher of '73.  Was in the southeastern part of the state. 

I was 9 years old in Wilmington ( out sick that day) when we got 12.8” February 8th or so 1973.  Jim Burns said that it was going to go from sleet to rain at noon on a Friday then it sleeted harder and started to snow about 4 pm.  Snowed all night, sleeted the next day then ended as snow on a Saturday night.   

We all appreciated your work GaWx!!

Y’all do realize that 98 percent of this forum needs to pull for it to be cold first and foremost.  That has been the issue therefore all cold trends are good, if you want snow.  Worry about precipitation specifics later.

 The 12Z CMC (I know isn’t credible that far out but it can show what’s reasonably possible) does much more with the 2nd shortwave.

It isn't far at all.  Need to watch afternoon ensemble runs. 

Got a feeling you’re right but we still have hope.

Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region. 
 
the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.

1998 was similar in some ways

20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. 

I feel ya on this.  We were screwed in the 90s for sure.  One time we had a winter storm warning and got nothing.  Last night was a kick to the stomach  but we will keep posting and hoping until early March.

I’m guessing the European will be different but closer?

I can’t think of a more deserving person for digital love!  Congratulations!!

I never thought VDay was viable  here in northern N or other parts of the sub forum-too warm.   I’m interested in the following storm and beyond as the pac ridge builds back with a good west based -NAO.  If nothing by March 3rd, I will start to really have doubts.  Hopefully this next one will give at least a taste even if snow geese are not fed in parts/ most of sub forum.

6 and 12z GFS ops were not too far off but the storm has been in the southeast on the Euro and Canadian ops as well.  Details far from clear yet but that along with the synoptic outlook is basically the epitome of what this forum is about.   
 

My guess is that something more definitive will appear in the coming days regarding the 18-20th.  Let’s see, it may ot may not work out.

Happy hour lately is driving me to drink.  What a catch 22!

I’m willing to wait a bit myself.  Operationals are all over the place while the Ensembles and weeklies have been consistent with the pattern turning more conducive towards wintry possibilities.

Y’all aren’t excited to see a few sleet pellets or ZR at hour 348?

Confluence from the 50/50 will be key. We need an amped slow moving 50/50 in the right spot to help enhance our HP. Can at least hope this is a case of undermodeled CAD, and in the short range our HP and confluence will improve. 

And if it doesn’t work out, will be happy to get off work on a Friday and hit golf balls and not freeze to death.  I don’t like cold just for the sake of being cold.

i have a feeling at lead a flizzard will occur at some point.

I feel ya but that’s the best chance we will have besides 8 days from now and that looks to be a good chance for something after mid month.

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Late Feb is not what I want to be banking on. That’s spring in these parts lately.

I’m okay with a torch before we get blocking later in February. Euro weeklies showing game on after mid month. We just need an inch or 2 to claim victory and I think we will get it. It’s tough right now but we still have time to pull something off.


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Looks like the low was a bit further north which has been a trend over the past few runs. When you look at the other models and ensembles, it’s not a terrible look.


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Something tells me the European will be interesting.