stormdragonwx

Unless something really drastic comes up on the data I'm thinking R.I.P. winter.

Looking at some of the long term data we might be done unless something happens in March. Showed promise but turned out to be a very meh season.

Had snow for about an hour here in Fayetteville and now we're getting dry slotted hard in the NWA area, might be a bust here. Never fails.

Data still looking insane for many areas along I-44, still waiting on a few more 00z models to come in.

12z runs, take it as you will

HRRR

3km NAM

WRF-ARW


NSSL-WRF


FV3


Basically areas to note is Central/SW OK and extreme NW AR and SW MO get slammed tonight. Even accounting for melting this could be significant.

00z runs (divide totals by 2 to account for melting that will likely occur)

HRRR


NSSL-WRF


FV3


3km NAM

RRFS-A

Yeah looks to be returning to our Nov-Dec pattern. Wonder what the rest of Feb into March shows or if that was our winter for the season.

Yeah Dan Skoff in his FB Live Update towards the end of the video sounded quite worried about how this could potentially overperform. The AR River Valley along I-40 could really get it. https://www.facebook.com/NWAWeatherAuthority/videos/930132298622291

I will say I am not too thrilled about the icing potential next week. At least in snow you can get around if you know what you are doing. It also means more power disruptions which is not ideal with the extreme cold we have had.

Could be my imagination but it might be back building a bit towards Tulsa on the latest radar scans?

Currently 1 degree with moderate to heavy snow falling. About 2" so far.

Yeah and people were panic buying at the stores over the past couple days too once the Watch/Warning got posted. A lot of people are gonna be PO'd. We will probably just see a repeat performance of Friday with flurries and a dusting at best.

I mean this isn't even warning criteria. Really confused on why they went with the Warning.

Yeah 00z models appear to be coming in even drier. I am thinking this is gonna bust and they will downgrade the warnings to an advisory.

Personally I'm really surprised they went for a Warning. 2-4" is barely even Warning criteria. (4+ is) Another thing too is the air is extremely dry at the midlevels which will cause sublimation to occur.

With the models trending drier I am expecting TSA and the others will drop the watch and replace it with another advisory.

47 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Well, the Euro sucks again.  

Watch it winds up being right.

Yeah GFS took a dump too. Not as dramatically as the Euro, but noticeable. 4-6" looks to be the high end versus the widespread 6-12" we were looking at a couple days ago. Only one still going crazy is the Canadian but its focusing a swath of 15-20 inches (Kuchera) way down in Central/Southern AR now. Looks like the moisture is being choked off & shunted to the SE.

And naturally I got new tires and wiper blades. lol

Yeah the NAM and Euro seem to be out to lunch OR they are right and a massive bust is inbound. Fingers crossed for the GFS/Canadian.

Man I swear if the rug gets pulled out from under us again... I'm hoping this is just the typical "bad run before the storm" model fluke. lol

I will be curious to see if we get some Blizzard Warnings issued in the 4 state area for this late weekend system. The potential is there.

Models still looking kinda depressing. Looks like the rug got pulled out for a lot of us.

Yeah I am writing off Tuesdays setup and holding out hope for Friday... if it doesn't stay too far north too. The next 72 hours will tell the tale.

Pretty amused with the silly GFS model calling snowpocalypse next week for Northern Arkansas with 3+ feet happening in that pocket over Harrison. Society would come to a screeching hault if this were to happen. lol

I've felt the Euro has always performed the best on Winter Scenarios.

I'll take this Euro run. See if it holds for the upcoming 00z run. lol