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Dabuckeyes

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    February 18/19 Party - STORM MODE

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, high risk said:

     

      The GFS para looks much like the ops does.    The CAMs overall favor drier solutions, although the NMMB is a bit wetter.    

     

     

    And the Never Much Moisture model (NMMB) is typically the driest of them all.  It is interesting the difference between CAMs and globals though, in terms of QPF on wave 2

    February 18/19th Storm Potential

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Roger Smith said:

    Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 26 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link)

    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP

    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

    With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. 

    I'm hoping for a track from Texarkana to Short Pump

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    February 18/19th Storm Potential

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

    The Euro has the Winchester snow finger bullseye just like the CMC. Pretty good agreement from the big 3 after this run. GFS, EURO and CMC all look almost identical for my area. 

    Looks good!   Might want to be careful talking about your backyard ;)

    • Haha 1
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