Bob's Burgers

11 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Are the storms developing in the SW part of the state not the main show? I don’t think any of the models have depicted the morning convection to develop into the main round of supercells.

They are (the cells in the SW part of the state) , but based off the latest data I would think they mature in AL

1 minute ago, Quincy said:

I wouldn’t write off the southeastern half of Mississippi yet. There has been a slight southeast trend with recent HRRR runs. Note that the axis of a boundary exists from roughly Jackson-Columbus-Huntsville with ongoing and soon to be new convection along and southeast of this boundary. 

Yeah, the Philadelphia area is still in the hot seat. Jackson not as much.

This is becoming an AL event in a hurry 

The threat looks like it's shifting east, more into AL. Some of the VADS out of MS aren't too hot.

The FV3 would be an unprecedented event.

The FV3 is out to lunch

Folks, that's as mean as it gets out of the Nam3k/NAMNEST

Just now, jojo762 said:

Edwards went all in with the 13z discussion. One of the strongest worded discussions you will ever see folks. Very bad day ahead.

Even stronger than the May 20 2019 disco? 

Chris Broyles already got his STP of 10 out of the Slidell sounding 

Yay.

Both the 7z hrrr and the latest 11z hrrr... yikes

Just now, yoda said:

You can't be a true avocado unless you have a pink center

high risk -- dammit i got beat

the HRRR is looking so much cleaner now that it's seeing the EML compared to the 0z run.

2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update.

The man, the myth, the legend.

02z hrrr is looking more interesting towards the end of the run. not quite as messy

Just now, TexMexWx said:

Yeah, I figured cause nothing here seemed right.  Will delete that post because that sounding is absolutely useless lol

What coordinates are you looking for? 

Just now, TexMexWx said:

I literally wasted 15 minutes trying to figure out why this shows up when I try to pull a sounding from the vicinity of a supercell near the MS/AL/TN intersection from your 21z image... why the heck am I getting a GDPS sounding and why the heck is this what it's showing 

You have to pay for those soundings/pivotal weather plus

There's still a few more innings left in this ballgame

If you toss both the NAM and the HRRR, the core WRF's of the HREF make a high risk plausible. 

Yeah, based off the WRF's, big trouble is very possible. ARW is mean just like the NSSL

NSSL WRF is big, big trouble