Stevo6899

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

It seems even Selfridge also picked up over 1.25" as of this morning. Pontiac also did respectably.

Still got some more rain to go today to add to those totals.

The rain here has never been more than just showers. Perhaps overnight some banding setup that helped catch up on what the models were showing. Some had 2+ so doubt we'll even come close to that. Ready for some sun and warmth tomorrow for the tigers doubleheader.

2 hours ago, Lightning said:

 

Yea I noticed their first qpf graphic had spotty yellow amounts, then they got rid of it, then doubled down and went back to it for the whole area lol. I guess I can't say they are being lazy this go around as they normally are with their graphic forecasts.

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

FWIW, it seems DTW has already picked up 0.71" so far.

Yea just most of the heavier bands have stayed west and sw. Now they are to the east lol. 

Yesterday pm runs of Models had 1.5-2 inches here. I doubt we've had more than .2. If this were a winter system, I'd be pissed lol. Donut hole overhead.

16 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Pretty crazy satellite imagery 

Here in central macomb, the thin line of clouds is almost overhead but isn't hindering the view of the eclipse, almost totality here. Pretty neat and eerie.

43 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Probably won't amount to much at the airport but there are parts of the metro that will do more than 4".

Looks like southern/central macomb over to Oakland have done well and the band has been parked over them for awhile and still is. 

10 minutes ago, Build Back Better Winters said:

DTW probably doesn’t even get 2”.

There's been a band that's been stationary north of dtw for hours. Someone will see 3-5. Of course I'm out of town for it. Pouring down here in florida, 3-6 inches of rain expected today.

7 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

Some of you can't help but bicker over little things, huh?

Pretty sure it's just a discussion to clarify things, rather than bickering. For those that aren't as educated in severe weather like myself, we appreciate all posts and know it's a difficult science to explain fully.

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah but each year is different. The max in Jan this year was only 44. Toledo has hit 70 in Jan on a few different occasions (we had a crazy warm spell Jan 20-22, 1906, another strong nino) but it's still extremely rare.

Definitly flipped compared to recent winters. I was gonna head down to florida this weekend for the month of March but might stick around a few extra days since it looks to be in the 60s through the weekend.

53 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Today will likely set a new monthly maximum, as the record is 70 in 2017/1999.

 

Fun fact- the only month to not hit 70 is January. 

Without diving into the stats, with how snowy/cold febs have been here recently, and the thaws in January recently, you'd never guess we've never hit 70 in january. 

Looks like Detroit hit 72. Pretty incredible to break the all time feb high. Obviously alot of factors to take into account when trying to figure out why we're seeing warmer temps in winter recently.

You almost have to expect some historic snowstorm in a few weeks, when everyone just starts to get used to the continued 50s/60s.

I feel like it has to be awhile since we've seen 70 in detroit in february.

28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it.

Thanks for the reply/info. I always thought sunshine early is good to help with instability and help with moisture and severe development but as always there's so much going on and things to look at and it only takes one component to mess it all up.

12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

A bit concerned about mixing issues with the full sunshine, SPC notes the same in their outlook especially WRT potential.

Can you explain this further? Only mixing I'm aware of is winter mixing. Severe novice here.

4 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

You didnt get that last year during the christmas blizzard? Southern Ontario went from 40F and rain to -5F to 5F in 12 hours 

We've had some 30-40 drops but dont think any 50+. Kansas city with almost a 60 degree drop coming. Hasn't happened since 1911, per Mike Seidel. Still laughing at that hurricane footage of seidel acting like he's about to be blown away by the winds, while people walk casually in the background.

12 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

I'm sure they can handle one coldish day before the next torch comes in shortly afterwards.

I dont think Ive ever been a part and felt a 45/50 degree temp drop in less than 12 hours. I know the denver area has seen this numerous times.

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

I’m going to say someone hits 85F in Missouri 

85 then down to 36 the next day. Eww.

Not sure anyone could predict some areas (detroit) could have just as many severe watches as winter storm watches djf. Only recall maybe one with the Jan 9-11 event but think maybe southern areas of the metro didn't even get a wsw with that event.

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lake effect locations moving observation spots can make a huge difference, and should be noted in the local climate records. Marquette only has records to 1961, but it is in the snowiest location in that area. If they actually kept the records in the city of Marquette the snowfall would be much lower.

Moving locations is usually a non issue in the longrun for non-lake belt spots though, snow wise. 

Josh, whats the record for most consecutive days in february above 50 in detroit? I'd ask 45 but I'd imagine its harder to get stats that way. Obviously warm spells can happen in winter here and it seems most of the time lately they've happened in January. February's have been rocking around here winter wise in recent years and just curious. Looks like atleast 4 in a row starting Sunday. Thanks. Also looks like there's potentially 8+ days straight of atleast 50 starting next weekend as we head in march. Atleast 10 degrees above avg for early march (40°).

2 hours ago, roardog said:

These snowfall deficits are still all pattern driven though. The pattern has been bad for big snow for years now for Ohio to the north and east into parts of Ontario like Toronto. There’s also probably some bad luck in there too. 
 

 Since the PDO went back negative after the super Nino of ‘15-‘16, any +PNA patterns have been very short lived during the cold season. There’s also been very little sustained high latitude blocking. Once you get south and east of Michigan, it’s tough to keep sustained winter weather with a -PNA and no blocking. 
 

  I believe Jan and Feb 2022 had a +PNA in the means and guess what? Most of of this sub ended up with a cold winter. Snow is obviously fluky so a cold winter doesn’t always guarantee a lot of snow of course. 

The lack of snows for toronto is similar to detroits, location. It's hard enough to get a low pressure to track in a favorable spot , just west of the apps. When you do, a large number of them are prone to miller b's, losing energy to a coastal.

9 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

The older I get the less I actually care about snow lol. I'll gladly take a massive heat wave with 95-105 for days on end followed by severe storms. 

Toronto also doesnt really get big dogs so I don't grade my winters based on if we saw a 24" storm. Big storms that get hype here are generally 8-12" so thats considered a big dog to me. The 16-24" are historical storms so in a completely different league and not one I expect to see often. 

I agree and I am losing interest in snow as i close in on 40, thus why I just want that big one at this point. I love the heat and always enjoy a heat wave. When I was young and didn't own a home, I really enjoyed severe weather and welcomed it. Nowadays not so much. I'd venture to guess we see more severe threats than snow threats in the coming weeks in and around the lakes and lower midwest. Days like yesterday are great for those with aches and pains. It's amazing how great the warmer weather makes you feel mentally and physically. 

On 2/19/2024 at 1:42 PM, Stebo said:

 

 

No one cares and you whine way too much about it. Furthermore I explained why it doesn't happen here and why it does for Chicago. You either don't care to read for comprehension or you are just being a troll who needs attention.

No one cares about big dogs? We're all weather weenies and care about snow otherwise we wouldn't be on here. I didn't realize chicago was aided that much by the lake with GHD1. Regardless you'll come up with an excuse for why it happens everywhere else, EC, Missouri, Minneapolis, upper midwest.  We'll agree to disagree and move on because there's so much going on weather wise we don't want to clutter up this thread. 

Reached 60 here today with plenty of sun. Looks to be flirting with 50's and 60's most of next week too with only one day in the 30's. I guess this is the next best thing if we aren't gonna get snow with nothing close to accumulating snow on any part of the models. Obviously long ways to go but if we were gonna go a March without a legit snow, this looks like the best chance.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Some people get sour when their dramatizations are consistently proven wrong by facts. 

Yea no stats or facts you have stated disapproves my "dramatizations" of our big dog futility.

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

He just have unrealistic expectations for this location and loves to whine about them.

Again wanting a big dog isn't unrealistic expectations. I don't expect them every year.  It's like you, Josh, or anyone saying we can get good (6+) snowstorms in march. Sure it can happen but unlikely, especially this winter.

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

And that one folk is right, no matter how sour you are. Going into March last year, no one expected the amount of snow most of us got, if you did you are lying. Not saying its likely but it is far from impossible.

Sour? What do I have to be sour about other than our lack of big dogs, which nothing you or Josh have stated proves me wrong. We do get some of our biggest snows in march but I'm ready for warmth once march rolls in. 

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

 

Some folks may come along and talk about how there's still March to go through which averages a fair bit of snow or how we always see a cold snap in March/April, but you can't fight the overall trends/signals. The odds of locking in another sustained/long-lasting winter pattern for the remainder of this season are progressively diminishing by the day.

Hmm I wonder who that one folk is that's gonna come along....