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Posts posted by Kmlwx
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The GFS has some decent supercell composite parameters to our west for next Tuesday afternoon - but the timing is bad for us and it fizzles east of the mountains.
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8 hours ago, coolio said:
My observations: It just looked like it was one rickety bridge. Went down easy.
Can't believe they got it on video.
I think I read that the captain of the boat knew that is was out of power and hard to control with plenty of minutes before impact. Why not drop the anchor?
From people more knowledgeable than myself - I've heard that it's not as simple as "drop the anchor = stop the boat" - and as a prior poster said - it seems they DID attempt to drop it anyway.
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The optimist in me would hope that even the most adamant of environmental advocates would see the economic impact of this bridge being out of commission for a long duration. Additionally, perhaps they'd see the added fossil fuel burning from trucks having to find longer alternate routes to get to/from the same spots. But optimism only gets you so far these days lol
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1 hour ago, Interstate said:
Watching the video was insane... could you imagine being one of the last cars to make it over the bridge. It looks like mostly construction vehicles on the bridge as it falls in the river.
I wonder if they will build another bridge or make it a tunnel.
I would think they will rebuild a bridge. Right now - that's a major way people go if they can't tolerate the tunnel (other interstate option would be all the way around the western side of 695. Obviously the decision probably won't factor in people's tunnel phobias...but I imagine due to the logistics of tunneling, they will keep it as a bridge when rebuilt.
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A lesser impact - but for folks who do not want to drive through a tunnel - this really sucks for adding travel time to trips through this area.
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38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
Think it’s lucky to have happened at the time of the day with the least possible traffic.
Absolutely this. Horrifying to imagine if this had been during the morning or evening rush hour especially.
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24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
This is the part of this new...whatever it is I don't get: Why is it that these late freezes have become more prevalent while the winters have been warmer? Although I think @psuhoffman said the Springs aren't getting cooler by the numbers...but why then are we seeing this more? Like...shouldn't a warmer background mean this doesn't happen as much? Make it make sense, lol
Well one thing is you can have a hard freeze or two and then have 20 degree plus departures and the averages will look like the freezes never happened.
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Every few runs of the GFS at least have had a storm system near the fantasy range/end of run that could be a severe producer for our area. Way too far out but has shown up a few times in varying forms.
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We usually flag April as "it's still too early" - but it does come with the benefit of having some really potent systems sometimes before we head into the more summery "doldrum" patterns. It seems we always have a bit of a "butter zone" in spring and fall when CAPE is healthy enough for more than just pencil thin lines of gusty showers - but with higher shear than you'd see in July.
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21 minutes ago, RodneyS said:
Nice shot - especially in foreseeing the large gap between RIC and the other three airports.
Day-by-day, the clock is ticking in your favor.
I'm torn on whether to root for a last minute freak snowstorm that makes me lose....or if I should just hope for the win at this point.
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I had not been checking the thread - I thought for sure I would be out after the little snow event. Goes to show you weather is a lot of guesswork...my entry was a total shot in the dark.
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The wind was really rocking last night for a time but it seemed mostly synoptic wind in nature rather than specifically associated with that line of showers. Hopefully before too long we start tracking spring severe!
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That HRRR map shows the localized DC bow very well. #derecho
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Line segment between Rosedale and Clay in WV looks nice!
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15 minutes ago, George BM said:
That MRGL has since been expanded east across the region for the 13z update.
SPC playing catchup. It's June 29, 2012!!!
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Tracking *something* (even a pencil thin squall) would be fun and a welcome break from the winter crap-tracking. Obviously it's early for anything super beefy - but stranger things have happened. I personally think one reason severe tracking is a bit more "civil" and "tame" than the winter stuff is other than my stupid CIPS posting, we really don't look much beyond 8 days (from the D4-8 outlook) for severe. Save for a major signal, like 95% of our severe threat windows pop up within 7 days - and often more like inside 5 days.
We aren't pattern hunting for weeks looking for a hint of severe. Add in that you can get a rogue pulse storm that wipes out 1000 trees and sneaky stuff is all around.
Not looking forward to bugs and heat...but I sure as heck am ready to end the boredom of tracking nothing.
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Is there ducting going on?
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42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
It has a really good objective track record. Even without Ellinwood or Ian posting much of something legit is on the way the usually come back to post.
Not to mention their ideas can generally be found elsewhere on the interwebs as well! I just hope we don't drop into a months long doldrum of boring weather. I can deal with little stretches of beautiful weather...but prolonged stretches get BORING.
Hopefully we get some nasty freezes late season to cut down on the mosquito populations
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:
The timeless scale. Each person has to be on board for the step to be activated.
It just never fails
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10 minutes ago, George BM said:
Unsolicited local severe outbreak rankings IMO since 2000:
MCSs:
1. June 29, 2012
2. June 4, 2008
3. August 26, 2003
Tornadoes:
1. September 17, 2004
2. September 24, 2001
3. April 28, 2002
Ultimately it's going to be very specific if we are talking about personalized backyard results. But area wide it doesn't get much more intense than June 29, 2012
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1 hour ago, 87storms said:
Yea, that should probably be KMLWX. He'll know when it's time. It's probably a little early.
Edit: He did create it in December of 2022 for '23, though. Shows what kind of winter we had last year lol.
Done
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It's early, but might as well do the annual severe thread (people were talking about it in the long range thread!).
I don't have the @WxWatcher007 scale handy on this computer - but I usually post it for posterity for the upcoming severe season. Anything from discussing past events to potential upcoming patterns/analogs, and discussion about more specific upcoming threats can be posted in here. A while ago we stopped doing event-specific severe threads for most things. Whether we do that or not - this is the general thread.
Have at it!
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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
The storm has been over performing to our west. Makes no sense. I’m skeptical.
It almost makes me wonder if some piece of "bad" data either from an aircraft or a 0z sounding did something odd. Though I think somebody else mentioned it's been a trend for a few runs.
2024 Severe Weather General Discussion
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
The last few GFS runs appear to be having trouble pushing better dewpoints and such north of the Potomac. It's pretty darn early still - but it's something to track that's not only in the Plains.