ORH_wxman

I don’t have fancy camera pics like some here but it was incredible. Went up to my cousin’s in south Burlington to see it. Got this cell phone pic on Megan’s phone (my phone camera is worse than hers)

Problem with the cell phone pics is that even a sliver of light around the edges gets dispersed out on the picture to make it look a lot brighter and thicker than it is. 

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  Maybe a little on top.  

Might be some stuff that rotates down overnight depending on which model to believe. 

5.5” on winter hill in ORH. 
 

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You on Winter Hill or Holliston?

Sleet is in Holliston. I’ll report form winter hill at some pint probably. 

Starting to get scalped here. Pinging picked up big time in the past 10 min

42 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

That's the biggest difference I see between yesterday and today. There was a nice H7 low over SNE on yesterday's runs, but today it just kind of looks baggy or develops really late Thursday where it's almost over NH. In that sense it is almost purely WAA driven, which gives me more of a SWFE vibe of capping things at 10ish outside of the mountains.

Yes. I think the western ULL ended up overpowering some of the height bulges out to the east that we were seeing yesterday on some runs. It’s a bit less prominent today so it’s taking longer for the storm to turn the mid-level winds easterly…and as you said, pretty hard to get monster totals when you are relying too much on WAA precip. Someone a little further north may benefit more though. I wouldn’t mind being near my summer vacation spot on Moose Pond in Denmark for this one. Pleasant Mountain FTW 

21 minutes ago, DomNH said:

My gut still says crud but there's definitely an avenue to warning snow if everything breaks right and it pounds 1-2'' an hour from midnight to 6 am. Hate the H7 low in NY State though - to me that screams showery banded radar and that ain't going to cut it.

The H7 warm front lifts north relatively quickly once it gets established over SNE. Some of the better runs yesterday we’re trying to stall it for a few hours which is how you get 20-burgers there but that seems unlikely now as it doesn’t slow down until near S ME/NH border. But yeah, if you can flash to parachutes by 03-04z, then you’ll have a path to warning criteria snow. 

Just now, DomNH said:

17z HRRR might be the coldest run yet. 

Trying to flip the pike region to snow around 06-07z. Warm layer really tries to wash out. I’m skeptical but big lift can do the trick sometimes. Esp if it’s in the DGZ where it will enhance latent cooling. 

2 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

For what it's worth isn't the NAM showing the same?

NAM had a much higher area of 2”+ QPF over maine and SE NH and far NE MA. Euro had a small bullseye. They weren’t too dissimilar further west though. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is paltry on QPF. Either a big win, or glue factory.

It’s been that way for several runs now for the most part since yesterday. Might be a red flag. 
 

But it basically has no agreement from other guidance. 

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Asking again,  any insight into new Rapid Refresh @OceanStWx

They run it off Ray’s computer. 

27 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Trends aren't instilling much confidence in a bust high for me currently 

I think I’d hedge mostly sleet there based on guidance trends overnight. It’ll change to snow but I think the meat of the QPF is going to be a lot of sleet and mixed crud. 

18z Euro seems kind of flaccid on QPF compared to other guidance. Really nothing over about an inch and a half for the frozen zones with lots of 1.2ish totals. 

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's like Jan 7...I am staying up for that. If it looks like it will bust, then I'll just bail and pass out.

Yeah and I think we’ll have a decent idea by tomorrow afternoon if it’s likely or not. I am assuming the differences in model guidance right now will try to converge a little more…or we’ll either see one last bump south or north in these next couple cycles. If it bumps south, then it’s easily game-on for you, if it bumps north, game over. Status quo? You might be nowcasting. 

18z GFS is just bonkers between 06z and 12z for extreme NE MA and SE NH. Like 3 hourly QPF of around an inch between 06z and 09z in Essex county and Rockingham county. That’s one way to overcome elevation deficiency. 

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Shooting for 100 here.  Could be close.

You might get two 20-burger storms inside of 2 weeks after the equinox. Not bad. 

Man what a pelting the NAM is over a lot of MA. Wish we could keep that mid-level warm front south longer but it doesn’t seem to want to happen except on a few rogue model runs. 
 

Western Maine is going to get crushed. Doesn’t really seem to matter the exact solution, they are getting 18-30” every run. Some a little close to 30 and others closer to 18 but always crushed. 

10 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

18z HRRR def not backing down on the sleet 

Was also snowier N of pike. Esp up by Rt 2 and over to Ray's hood.

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Of course ... no sooner do I post that and the Euro comes out to directly point out those differences. 
 

I don't like the fact that this thing "might" be too closed off too soon.  It really deepened aloft unusually quickly so and coiled up around itself so early that it's kind of donked pos when a run like this Euro one decides to make the system more annular looking like that.

Yes. It’s subtle but we really need the height field to try and “open up” south of New England. That trend started yesterday after most guidance had relegated the system pretty much a total non-event south of monadnocks from the tempest they showed 2-3 days prior…but it’s a precarious trend that could easily snap back. 
 

And it’s possible we may not even know the fate of that idea until very close to go-time. As both of us know, convection can wreak havoc on those subtle height field differences and cause the mid-level warm front to stay further south than modeled. Or the reverse might happen and it goes further north than progged. 
 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO looks warmer than 06z.

As soon as I looped H5 (I usually do that first) I knew it was going to be slightly worse since it wasn’t bulging out the H5 heights quite as well to the east as 06z was. That, in turn, pushes the midlevel warmth and dryslot further north. It’s crucial we keep the H7 front south of us through 12z Thursday if we want warning criteria snowfall. 

12z euro looks a bit warmer than 06z. Took a step back. Gonna have to sweat it out apparently in the N MA/S NH zone. 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My biggest concern is the near surface freezing temps. Is that enough to change the character of the snow, because otherwise it should be pretty dry stuff. 

There's also a real chance we can dynamically cool the surface even more when we toss a bunch of precip into the column given how cold it is just off the deck. 

That sounding honestly looks like it would be in the upper 20s range at the sfc if you have heavy lift. You’re pulling -5C not very far off the deck there. 
 

But the million dollar question remains is how organized can we keep the heavy lift? Given the relatively late nature of the secondary development and the ULL remaining very strong to our west, I worry about conveyor mechanics getting out of sync. But this subtle trend of “bulging” out the H5 low to the east and lowering heights there is helping over the past few cycles. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down.

I think omega/lift will have a lot to do with it too. If we get a very good area of consolidated strong lift, the soundings are going to want to flash colder. But if we keep things a little more banded and slightly less organized or the lift just isn’t quite as intense, it’s prob a lot more sleet. 

3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

It's not an isothermal paste bomb sounding though during the overnight hours once the H7 warmth washes out. It's pretty damn cold right about down to the surface.

Yes. It’s pretty cold in the 925 layer around -3ish

Heres the sounding at 06z tomorrow night near you while GFS is pounding…you can see how once off the immediate surface, you’re comfortably below freezing so this isn’t going to be a scenario where you have slush balls falling through an isothermal layer 3000 feet thick and not sticking well. If the rate are good, accumulations will easily be 10:1 on that type of sounding…you might even pull 15:1 for a while with that cross hair sig, but I’d want to see all the models agree on that before taking it too seriously.  

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

FFS can this go 30 miles SE?

Yeah it doesn't need much to get BOS into legit snow. What a tease.