Danajames

Can't you see the beauty of this pattern? It doesn't require analysis. It's the beast that can't be destroyed. The dreamer in me is hoping that one day in the far, far future, weather will return to being "normal" again. There will be no more relentless, stalled out fronts, cut-off lows, Appalachian cutters, 70+" of precipitation(mainly rain), etc... Like I said, it's become so predictable that it's almost comical.

Here's my prediction- we'll get a period of light rain on Tuesday, it will transition to snow for a few hours before the Arctic air completely plows through and we'll get a dusting to maybe an inch if we're lucky. Then it will be very cold for 3-4 days, temperatures will moderate and then yet another Great Lakes cutter pulling another 1-2" of rain up from the Gulf will saturate the Mid-Atlantic. How's that? It's so predictable, you can set your watch to it. Ladies and Gentlemen......THE PATTERN FROM HELL.

On the contrary, I care deeply about all this heavy rain as I've had a literal flood plain in my back yard since last Spring. It's becoming pure dread whenever I see another 1-2 inches of rain heading my way. And all the people who have had flooded basements over the past year care too. I love a good old fashioned snow storm like most of us on here but if you give me a choice at this point, I'll gladly take dry and cold.

I was going to say the same thing. Just uncanny how deadly accurate they are, especially when it comes to heavy rain events. If the mets are predicting a deluge 3-5 days out, believe it. Snowstorms? The models and hence, the mets are basically helpless. Until it's right on your doorstep, they'll waver, dance, deny, admit, and ultimately, make fools out of themselves. It just comes with the territory with little to no accountability. I always read the NOAA's forecast discussion page for my area and while it's fairly technical, if they're mentioning the dreaded PWAT's within a storm, get ready to be inundated with more heavy rain.

The odds of ANY model nailing a storm that's over 10 days out is extremely low. Not saying it hasn't happened but it's rare. I usually stick with a 5 day window and anything longer than that borders on high comedy. Sometimes models can pick up on long term pattern shifts but individual storms? Nah...not going to bite on those. Not sure when this long range silliness started but it's basically useless other than to entertain people with pure fiction.

The 1800 run of the GFS is showing a decently organized Clipper system diving southeast Monday night and then coming back around the bend northeast of Virginia as a small but compact low pressure system. On that track, it would undoubtedly be all snow and another shot of cold air will be on it's heels. As of now, it doesn't look like a large area of precipitation and the model has it moving pretty fast as most Clippers do. So, maybe a quick shot of snow Tuesday morning into the evening hours and then cold.

We have had some really good tracks this winter that didnt have cold. Mid dec comes to mind Maybe my memory is failing me but outside of that one snowstorm down south that never made it up this far north, most of the lows are tracking west of here. Once a pattern sets up, it's hard to break. After 70+" of precipitation in 2018, I'd rather it just be dry if it's not going to snow.

The storm track was set up in the Fall and has shown irritating consistency since. Almost every storm wants to run up the Appalachian chain. These patterns are very hard to break and I really have no reason to believe it's going to change. We might catch lightning in a bottle a la the 30" monster storm in 2016 but I doubt it. We'll have cold shots here and there but overall, I think it is what it is as they say.

Both the midnight and 0600 run of the GFS show nothing for the weekend but a chance at a quick hit of snow next Tues-Wed. as a Clipper system swings by and tries to transition a low off the coast. If all it's going to do is rain, I'd rather it just be dry but at least there's a chance early next week for some snow. We'll see if it stays on the model later in the week.

About the only thing on the GFS 1800 run was a clipper system by next Tuesday. Nothing for the weekend. And until I see otherwise, I'm not expecting anything. Say what you want about the GFS but once it locks down on the 5 day period, it's very consistent and more often than not, pretty accurate. Who knows, maybe something will magically appear by tomorrow or Wednesday but I'm not holding my breath. Hell, I'd love to have a winter of nothing but energized Clipper systems. At least you know they'll be snow.

This was no "Flash Freeze" like they were predicting several days ago. It was 48 degrees when I got up yesterday morning and then 12 hours later, it was 28. So, it was a gradual, consistent drop. No 20 degree nose dive in a couple of hours like they were advertising. Basically just a rainstorm with an ensuing Arctic blast which will last all of 2 days.

Mrs. Lancaster(Groundhog Day): "I hear there's talk of a blizzard" next weekend? The GFS isn't showing anything. (LOL)

Thanks for the 2nd link...that's pretty cool. Unfortunately, the odds of me seeing any snow are slim to none. The only thing I'm hoping for at this point is that they overestimated how much precipitation will ultimately fall for northern MD, that we'll come in under an inch and that we might see some wrap around snow showers tomorrow with the advancement of the Arctic front.

The only model I have on my computer is the GFS. I'd like to get the EURO but for some reason, can never find one that's similar to the GFS. It's usually just 2-4 small maps but never like the ones I see on meteorologist blogs or videos. In any rate, I think one of the reasons the GFS irritates mets or other people in general is because their long range projections are almost unusable. But within a 5-7 day window, I think it does perform pretty well.

I mentioned that this morning about the GFS, Chris. It did a great job with this storm and never wavered from it's track even a week ago. The GFS long range can be almost comical at times but when you get within 5-6 days of a specific event, it usually does a pretty good job.

It was 37 when I got up and I live in southern part of Harford County. As soon as I saw that, I knew this one was a done deal.

I know the GFS gets a lot of grief from a lot of mets but it has been very consistent going back a week regarding this storm. It was an Appalachian cutter right out of the gate and still is. I think they were over reaching yesterday with the CAD element as far as most of the Mid-Atlantic and this is going to be a good old fashioned rainstorm for most. If you're a snow lover like myself, this is not your storm. Never was and the sooner it gets out of here the better. The last thing we need is to get into another relentless pattern of heavy rain every 3-4 days after being inundated in 2018.