Danajames

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Sh*t weather again.

Oh well. Bring on spring (for good).

And for the love of all that's holy, PLEASE let it be dry! 

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

1.63” of rain here in 12 hours.  All the places that have repeatedly been flooding the past year are flooded again.  

We had just, finally, lost the new pond in our backyard for the first time in months yesterday.  It’s all the way back.

I hear you and I've got the same situation.  You've got one person in me that completely understands and sympathizes with you. 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Big coastals always have surprises it seems ..thats a big part of my passion for em for sure . 

"Surprise" being the operative word.  Monday evening, I checked the NOAA forecast discussion page and all they were saying was there was a "moisture starved" frontal system moving through on Thursday with at most 1/4" of rain.   I wake up Tuesday and just like magic, there's a massive coastal storm brewing, almost guaranteeing 2-3" of rain for the Mid- Atlantic.  I was just shaking my head.  What's the point in even following media forecasts?  The models are just a box of chocolates with the mets doing the unwrapping every day.   A solid 2" here in Edgewood.  Just when it was starting to dry out....on and on it goes. 

2 hours ago, Icefishingrocks said:

A nice steady soaking rain falling into a nice cool 34 degree air mass.  That's the shit dreams are made of fellas.

It's the Maryland, winter specialty-  cold rain!  It never lets you down.   And my hatred for it never wanes.  

1 hour ago, Buildthewall said:

R/S line has pretty much stopped and has started advancing back south some

Are you getting snow?  I'm down here in Edgewood and it's just rain.  

If you look at the MD radar, it's showing snow in my area(Edgewood) but it's just rain and cold right now after an inch of snow.  Unless it changes back to snow and quick, the 3-6" forecast will be a laughable bust.  I have a feeling it's still snow just north of me, though. 

I checked my weather radio about an hour ago and I heard that Southeast Harford is now in the WSW sector with 3-6" possible.  Better than the 1-3" it had last night.  I guess the projected storm track was adjusted slightly more south overnight. 

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I think you're good for 4-8". Probably 3-6" down my way.

Last I heard, the NWS had my area(Southeast Harford) under a Winter Weather Advisory, for 1-3".  Has that been upgraded to a WSW? 

This isn't pertinent to March but has anyone seen any long range Spring/Summer forecasts?  Just curious.  Wondering if El Nino will survive throughout the summer and what that will mean as far as the weather being generally wet or dry.  I refuse to believe we can have another summer like last year with that much rain but I guess stranger things have happened.  

5 hours ago, Rvarookie said:

So nice to see sun out today after having rain for 10 out of last 15 days. Wind is def helping to dry things out 

I do feel bad for those that lost power and especially the ones that had trees either slam into their house or car but like you, I chose to find a positive with the wind and it does dry the surface out appreciably.   And yes, the sun shining was nice for a change.  My sister lives in Richmond and she's been ranting about the rain for some time now.  Can't say I blame her...it's been relentless for almost a year.   I keep waiting for some met or poster here to tell me that the long range Spring/Summer outlook is for drier than normal conditions.   That would be a symphony to my ears. 

2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Scary loud early morning winds. Had to have a few gusts around 60mph. Died down for a few minutes now but around sunrise it was nuts. We do wind well. Backyard is a swamp.  

Mine too.  I feel for you. 

I would say the gusts in my neck of the woods have been in the 40-50 MPH range.  I've seen worse, especially with that high wind event last winter.   Hopefully, not too many people lost power or trees in the their yards.   Considering how wet it's been, I guess the silver lining with the wind is that it does dry things out on the surface. 

The 0600 GFS shows little doubt that cold temperatures are headed this way in the March 3-10 period...possibly VERY cold.   And if you're a snow lover, that's the first ingredient.  Where it goes from there is anyone's guess at this point.  

3 hours ago, luckyamaha said:

We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatal

 

 

 

What I would LOVE to move on to would be a dry March.  If it's not going to snow anymore(a very real possibility), then PLEASE let it be drier than normal.  Better yet, bring on a good old fashioned drought.  

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure how to grade this winter here. It hasn’t been awful by the numbers although I am still a healthy bit short of climo.  There have been a good number of snow events but most have kind of felt underwhelming. A lot of fringe and low to low end moderate events. A nickel and dime winter here for sure and that’s just not my thing. 

The only exception to that would be a winter like 93 and 94 up here which (other than the Superstorm) were nickel and dime lots of 3-6” events but so cold that both built up snowpack and had long stretches with snowcover. That would be awesome. But a bunch of 3-5” events that melt before the next one kind of feels a little deflating. 

I know some would love to get a bunch of 3-4” snowstorms and if they think I’m ridiculous I don’t blame them. Just saying how I feel. 

I think if I can get one more storm that tops the November 15 storm as my biggest of the year then this year jumps up to a C+ or B but if I don’t get anything else significant and that November storm ends up by only significant snowstorm of the year then it’s a D or C-  

If I don’t get anymore snow this year it would finish 8th out of 13 years. Not awful but given high expectations a let down for sure. This could all change with one 10”+ storm in March though!!!

Yes, I did think we had a good shot of a 2002-03 type winter but it just never materialized.  Way too many Great Lake cutters for me to give this winter a B grade.  I'd put it at a C, pending what happens in March. 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Who cares what people use to grade a SUBJECTIVE OPINION. I'm an optimist and focus on the good to offset the bad. Pessimists are much harder to please because they heavyweight the bad. There's nothing wrong with either. The bottom line is optimists need less to be happy and pessimists need more. It's a plain fact and I really don't care who thinks what except for me. 

On to weather... EPS actually looks really good in the D9-15 range. More than just a random splattering of random events. The D9-11 period is improving. I think we have one more event in us this year before the point of no return. 

I just try to be a realist when it comes to winter weather in my neck of the woods.   The winter of 2009-10 was a "once in a lifetime" season and I seriously doubt I'll ever see that again unless I move much farther north.   Like you, I do think we still have a chance at a significant snowfall in early-mid March.  The GFS has been consistently showing a coastal storm in the March 2nd-4th period, give or take which run you're looking at.   And we'll definitely still have cold shots throughout March, so there's still some hope left.  

Interesting how the dry slot goes right between Harford County and D.C.  But there's some heavier precipitation pinwheeling towards the Capital right now and it looks like they'll be back in the thick of it soon.  I'm wondering if that makes it up this far north, if it will be snow again. Also, there's a lot of heavy rain back west of us that has to move east from the Tennessee Valley and West Virginia.   Hopefully, that will dissipate somewhat by the time it arrives later today.  

About 4" here in Edgewood....it's been snowing moderate to heavy since about 9:00 a.m.  Just went on a 2 mile walk and it was beautiful.  Few thing better in life than that.  The snow rate has come down a bit over the past 1/2 hour and I would assume the transition to sleet is knocking on my door.  Here's hoping for a colder than normal March and a few more chances of snow. 

The 0600 run of the GFS is definitely colder than previous runs the past few days for most of Wednesday.  Once the precipitation transitions to all rain later in the day, I could see the MD/PA line having a substantial ice hazard for several hours.  I have a feeling that driving conditions up there will be horrendous.   I also could see someone(yet to be determined) getting 8-12 inches out of this storm.  Looks like once it gets going in earnest, snow rates could be 1-2" an hour for awhile before the mixing kicks in.  And for future reference, the GFS is STILL showing a coastal snowstorm in the March 2nd-3rd time frame.  Amazing how it's been on the runs for almost a week.  

1 hour ago, Rvarookie said:

I don’t mind if I keep missing the snow, but these cold rain hits are going to make me go Ji. Just give me the dry cold and spare me please

My exact sentiment.  I feel your pain, believe me.  I was looking at the almanac on the back page of the Sun sports this morning and noticed that the least amount of precipitation for February was 0.33" in 2002.   Man, I wish we could have a month like that, preferably March but the realist in me knows the odds of that are next to zero.   Not with this pattern of relentless precipitation that's been ongoing since a year ago.   At least you got one decent snowstorm this winter.  

1 hour ago, dsnowman said:

The GFS was starting to show some transfer to the coast, thus holding things back and slowing it down. I haven’t looked at the EURO maps, are we seeing the same thing? Overall this could be a good thing. I’m more worried about temps right now, so if we get the coastal going qpf will be no problem.

I know it's several days out but the QPF is looking just fine...maybe around an inch.  It will have plenty of moisture to work with.  For us snow lovers, it's going to depend on how much cold air will be in place, how long it hangs around and obviously, the eventual track. There's definitely going to be warm air advection aloft but sometimes the CAD can be hard to erode.  I'm a hard core realist for the most part but my gut is telling me that if we can pull off one more, legitimate WSW event for most of the state, this one may be the real McCoy.  We shall see. 

Not sure if the other thread covers mid-week but started this anyway. 

Per NWS discussion/Saturday morning:  

Canadian high pressure residing over the Upper Midwest will migrate
eastward during the day on Tuesday, building to our north through
Tuesday evening. This will deliver dry conditions and slightly below
normal temperatures under a light northerly flow. At the same time,
an upper trough will be lifting out of the southwestern states,
aiding in the development of an area of low pressure near the lower
Mississippi Valley. This low will strengthen and gather ample
moisture from the Gulf as it tracks northeastward into Tuesday
night. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon and evening,
but dry conditions are expected to prevail through midnight. After
which, precipitation will spread northward into the region, and with
the high situated to our north, cold air will be funneled and locked
in across our area. A rain/snow mix will be possible across the
southern half of the CWA predawn Wednesday, with snow the favored
across the north given colder temperatures at the surface and aloft.

As the system progresses northward during the day on Wednesday, warm
air advection will be increasing aloft, as 850 temps likely rising
above freezing by Wednesday evening for much of the area. This will
bring a transition to a wintry mix throughout the day across the
area as low level cold air hangs on for portions of the area. It is
still too early to discern exact ptype and timing, but one thing is
becoming more and more clear is the plentiful moisture associated
with this system. QPF will likely approach or exceed an inch for a
bulk of the area through Wednesday night. Depending on the strength
and stubbornness of the cold air at the surface, those
climatologically favored locations near and west of the Blue Ridge
could see an extended period of wintry precipitation Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

By Thursday morning, low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will be
pushing northeastward into the Atlantic as high pressure nudges into
the region from the west. This should bring an end to precipitation
by Thursday afternoon, and with continued warming temperatures at
the surface and aloft, rain will be favored across the CWA Thursday
morning. High pressure to the north will deliver mostly dry
conditions into Thursday night, before another area of low pressure
approaches from the Tennessee Valley late Friday and Friday night.
Wintry precipitation will be possible for portions of the area
Friday night.

With only 24 hours to go, I think it's time to pull the plug on tomorrow's storm.  It's weaker and farther south on most models.  Sunday, if we get any frozen precipitation, will change to rain by later in the day so hopefully it will be light and insignificant.  Most models still have the Tuesday storm alive but the GFS has basically lost it over the past 3 runs.  It's not until later on Wednesday do they show anything and that's just your basic, Mid-Atlantic special- cold rain.   Then, a couple of more chances of rain to end the week.  On a brighter note, the GFS is still showing a coastal storm on the 2nd of March.  

Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event.  But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD.   Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow.  Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation.  Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow.   Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation.  Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question.  As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day.