Cary67

On 4/15/2024 at 6:18 AM, A-L-E-K said:

another brief cool down before real sustained warmth?

Late April in the past usually signals sustained spring like weather. I typically will start planting then unless an unusual cold spell is forecast. Some wait till after Mother's Day but that's conservative.

12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm honing in on somewhere in the corridor from SE IL, near the IL/IN border, into C IN. Guidance seems to be in best agreement in keeping this corridor out of the expected high clouds, or at least keeping them minimal until after the eclipse. 

TX/OK/AR/MO all seem to be a lock to have high clouds of higher coverage and significance. While it may still be visible through the higher clouds in some areas in this corridor, the experience will be far from the same.

I never really considered the Northeast as a possibility, as it's going to be cooler (Would rather view in quality weather conditions), and there will likely be a higher density of viewers/travelers there due to the proximity to the higher population centers along the East Coast... And plus, I'm just not really interested in heading up that way anyway.

In 2017, I was down in Southwestern Illinois, just outside of the STL metro. I was right just inside the range of totality, so I got to experience brief totality and the effects of riding the edge. This go around, I plan on setting up in full/max totality.

My Aunt lives in Mt.Carmel will tell her your coming.

Will grade this out as a C+. Around 26-27" total this year which sadly is better than the last few years. Considering my area cashed in on the two weeks of winter in January and has been favored compared to the rest of LOT for other small events, better than could be expected considering the overall winter futility.

33 minutes ago, madwx said:

Think we got about 3” yesterday and about .5” overnight.  But it’s all turning to slush.  Expecting an inch or maybe 2 today but rates should be much lower. Ready for this to be over 

Quietly those seasonal snow totals getting up there. 41.3"

About 2-3" down here

For a dud winter the northern counties have maxed out on the few opportunities this year.

18Z HRRR slid a bit south with band

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

some slop to end a terrible snow season

Can't get out totally unscathed. 

Even though under WWA expect maybe 1" of slop far SE McHenry. Maybe 2-3" up on the IL/WI border 

About 1" down

Brylcreem system. "A little DAB'll do ya"

Normally don't put the snowblower away till 1st week of April. Thinking of retiring it early.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is only thru mid-Feb last year, but its easily overdone in all of southern MI.

Flint averages 52.0”
2019-20: 53.7”
2020-21: 48.6”
2021-22: 60.5”
2022-23: 46.5”
4-year cumulative +1.3”

Detroit averages 45.0”
2019-20: 43.7”
2020-21: 44.9”
2021-22: 47.1”
2022-23: 37.1”
4-year cumulative -7.2”

Grand Rapids averages 77.2”
2019-20: 53.5”
2020-21: 46.1”
2021-22: 71.0”
2022-23: 110.7”
4-year cumulative 

It seems accurate for my area but maybe not so much for others. Have to think this winter will only further the departures shown in a lot of the midwest that are lagging in snowfall over the last five winters.

This winter should enhance this map nicely.

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

u know the winter has been a turd when we're still doing the SSWE thing 

 

The question of will it snow on Easter has to be dealt with.

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

The only reason they do is because of Lake Michigan, by the numbers they also get less snow yearly and we get more of the 6-10" snows.

I am almost as far north at 42.18 latitude as Detroit yet you guys seem to outperform us in snowfall averages. Is that just lake influence or does your area receive more synoptic snows?

On 2/7/2024 at 2:40 PM, Chicago Storm said:

I've been busy with other things, so haven't been able to focus on or put out any thoughts on the long range as of yet. Hopefully I'll have something out in the next day...

But, for now...

-I've seen some on social media trying to compare this upcoming period to what we saw in early-mid January. However, the setup on the large scale has differences when factoring everything in, so the outcome shouldn't be expected to be the same.
-Significant stratospheric warming is on the horizon. The Euro suggests this period of warming could be a full on SSWE, and could be the one that leads to the demise of the SPV for the season.
-The MJO appears as though it does not want to play ball, looking to stay in warmer phases and the COD during this period.
-This last two points regarding the SSW and MJO likely means it'll be more of a battle this go around.
-Based on the positioning of everything, temps will likely be more of a rollercoaster mix of below/seasonal/above.
-The pattern is likely to be active across the CONUS, with a W/NW flow. We'll see a constant parade of disturbances/troughs break off Bering Sea/Aleutian/Pacific mean troughing, then skimming across the CONUS.

Not sure if this is definitive about a SSW cancel but maybe you have some insight. Post stated 100% of ensembles had a reversal on the SSW with PV remaining intact

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's just something about getting that big dog in your own backyard. I just get tired of josh turd polishing everything, like Detroit is the best place to be in the winter. Chicago is 10:4 over us in storms 12+ in recent years which backs up my original point. He doesn't get tired of all the mediocre events which is fine. I get it, its not in our climo to get big storms, but the point is its possible and we don't. He just can't admit that we suck at big dogs and Chicago is just in a better location. Instead he just focuses on our mediocre 4-10 events and how we own Chicago in that department. That's like the lions beating the bears in the regular season, then losing to them in the playoffs. 

I think Detroit averages 45"seasonal snowfall compared to 37-38" for Chicago. I've had several winters recently under 25" seasonal snowfall yet Michigansnowfreak has only experienced one winter in 29 years like that. Big dogs happen so infrequently in Chicago I'd take the consistent yearly snow advantage you have. But understand your point

15 hours ago, Mogget said:

 Nice! Did I say winter was monotonous. Lol

With the exception of a couple weeks in January and the last few days of spring like weather its monotonously unappealing. 4.5 months of temps 30-45F with cold rain the predominating precip is a tough road to grind through.                                        Loss of December as a winter month is a killer. Below average March and April's just extend the monotony but can't replace losing December.

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

might as torch

Not CAD but SAD( seasonable and dry)

Euro and CMC want to bring back a Jan.11-13th track system. Right ahead of the mid month cold push.

From LOT AFD:

pressed south by blocking over central NOAM, we`ll have an
exceptionally long period of benign weather with surface high
pressure predominating through mid next week. Winds will be
generally from the northeast, resulting in rare winter time
"cooler near the lake" conditions lakeside amidst otherwise well
above normal temperatures in the 40s (with upside potential
pending sky cover trends). Next chance of precipitation will
come beyond day 7. The tendency during this stretch will be to
wonder if "winter is over", though consistent long range
ensemble guidance has been pointing toward the return of a more
wintry pattern (western ridging and eastern troughing with high
latitude blocking establishing), at least temperature wise,
toward Valentine`s Day.

Castro

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

another 2-week winter and spring from hell

getting old imo

The springs in N.IL and especially by the lake have always been short and sucky with some exceptions. For the most part it's mid to late April till mid to late May. I think the loss of December whether its an El Nino or La Nina isn't compensated enough by cold Marches. The winter windows of opportunity seem to be narrowing in length and frequency. It highlights the fewer winners vs all the losers even more so in areas solely relying on synoptic snowfall. LES areas still have the buffer of receiving snow when cold air makes its brief intrusions.

4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Most of the long range gurus, including our own [mention=525]OHweather[/mention], think that the 2nd half of February will turn colder in the eastern US and I haven't seen any suggestions of that not playing out. The end of the most recent EPS and GEFS show the progression to west coast ridging and eastern troughing with a -NAO returning.

Prior to that, it absolutely will be torchy as the western US gets hammered and the calls that winter is over will continue. The positive departures will be large prior to the likely colder pattern, so the odds certainly favor AN mean temps for the month.

Assuming things go to plan, the position of the expected western ridging will help determine how active or not the pattern will be, particularly with western extent where an east based +PNA is generally a drier look.




 

If this happens the NWS may have to issue a CAD watch for Alek