Sernest14

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 00Z HRRR continues to lift the snow band toward the DC metro area. However, mixed precipitation continues to develop periodically as far south as the Richmond metro area throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. Temperatures look to remain steady around freezing. It has areas SE of Richmond, including Hampton Roads, that are mostly dry, but you could still see spotty light rain since temperatures in this area stay well above freezing.

Around 10 am tomorrow, HRRR has a more widespread band of precipitation developing across the Richmond Metro and then moving SE toward Hampton Roads. Verbatim, the temperature at RIC is around 34°F-35°F, so it’s rain when it begins. Still, temperatures drop to around freezing during the precip, so it transitions to a mix and finally snow before ending and moving east between 2 pm and 3 pm. This transition to a mix and snow could occur as far east as Williamsburg, the middle peninsula, and the northern neck. Areas east and SE of Williamsburg see just rain with this precip patch.

Should the temperatures stay 2-3 degrees colder than the model indicates, there could be more widespread frozen precip around Richmond tomorrow morning into the afternoon with this development.

HRRR has been awful with this storm so far (at least for our area).  it has wanted to continue to push the precip more due north than a more ENE direction which is what we saw all day.   I feel like every run they had precip out of our area within the hour

Finished right around 3” in Ashland between ric and kings dominion.  Looks like a shot later with the stuff in NW NC but other than that appears done.  Definitely over performed the short range models and the southern edge of precip

Looks like we have another little shot with this 

Currently at 3”- definitely better than models were showing!

Looks to be filling back in around Danville but a dry slot between there and Lynchburg opening up

Same on both- back to all snow and coming down pretty good atm - probably sitting at 1.25” to 1.5” on the surfaces that accumulated first

Spoke to soon- sleet mixed in now

Hoping that band south of Roanoke and Lynchburg doesn’t move too far north and we can get some of that.  May be pushing north too quickly though

Still snow in Ashland (just north of Richmond).  Walkway and driveway starting to cave a little.

looks like we have maybe another . To 1” to go before it moves out

Still coming down decent and all snow in Ashland.  Driveway and sidewalk starting to cave a little 

18z NAM giving about an inch or so over the next couple hours- fingers crossed

Decent coating so far 

Sticking minus concrete/roads- hopefully can pick up and have those start to cave too

Finally some flakes in ashland.  Looks like it should stay snow for a bit and pick up based on radar

11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha
 

Seeing the same, looks like Danville area is seeing snow make it down per traffic cams so hopefully a good sign for us

Radar looks a lot more full and expands south more, especially in carolina from what models are showing so hopefully that’s a good sign

Some sleet starting to mix in

18z’s look great for here.  Upping totals by a bit

Just started here

Looking like a 1-3 type event (with upside of 3-5).  GFS seems a bit more precip. than others but everything has at least 1"

ICON's out here saying, "yeah, we'll just skip this, we have no idea what's going to happen so we're just not even going to try"

Definitely looks like it’s trending more to the GFS in terms of when and where the frozen precip is at 60

Slowing up a bit- really confused cause multiple radars show nothing overhead (or even very close) but still coming down as at a nice light clip 

Right around 3” in Ashland (grass measurement). Shaded pavement areas caved

Right around 3” in Ashland (grass measurement)