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cptcatz

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Posts posted by cptcatz

  1. On 2/20/2024 at 1:30 PM, bigtenfan said:

    Question:

     

    With the  greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.

    I think it would slightly increase the odds if storms develop out there but I think a bigger factor for recurves is the strength of the Bermuda high and whether or not the storms find the weakness to turn.  The high temps also don't necessarily mean storms will get strong out there, as we've seen the last few years shear and dry air have been shutting down the MDR quite a bit.

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  2. 23 hours ago, etudiant said:

    So why was it not prominently chosen in the various hurricane forecasts? 

    Certainly both the Nino conditions as well as the unusually warm Atlantic were discussed at great length.

    It was.  Look through the first couple pages of this thread.  A lot of talk about recurves and analogs to 2010 which had similar tracks.

  3. 6 hours ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

    Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda.  Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

    Interesting because if you asked somewhat what to expect with an El Nino and record hot Atlantic, that's exactly what you'd expect. 

  4. 57 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

    a lot of these tracks in the GFS/GEFS remind me of Henri 2021 but stronger and more to the east. kind of an odd/rare track though

    Track kinda, but Henri was a minimal hurricane at its peak and made landfall as a tropical storm. This could impact that area as an equivalent cat 2 hurricane with a massive windfield. I know it's weenie frowned upon here to bring up the certain S storm as comparison, but it seems that's the most comparable storm in recent history. 

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  5. Kinda interesting that it seems odds are quite good that Nova Scotia will get some hurricane-like impacts from Lee. In the last 4 years, Lee will be the 4th (post) tropical cyclone to make landfall on Nova Scotia, along with Dorian, Teddy, and Fiona. Also interesting is that all four storms peaked at cat 4 or 5.

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  6. 5 minutes ago, MDScot said:

    They take the comments on Americanwx and feed them into ChatGPT to get an artifically intelligent forecast;)

    Sounds like then it would show a 880mb storm riding up the east coast merging with a polar vortex causing a blizzard with 170 mph winds. 

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