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Posts posted by Pilotwx
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Every model just about for 2 weeks has had a min. or completely dry over the NW piedmont and N foothills counties , Stokes, NW Forsyth, Yadkin, Surry. It seems to be trend for awhile, most of the time it has been right. Hence one of the reason Pilot Mountain fire grew so quick
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1 minute ago, Ghicks said:
that my friend is the million dollar question
12Z tomorrow run we will either see the people to the East cleaning the Grocery stores out, or people in the West topping off their Groceries.
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? now is NAM short range right, more west? Or is Euro right, more East Long range Model?
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51 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:
Spread RPO , yet running a buck sweep
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4 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:
Which model and run?
UKMET, GFS all have moved NW, Euro was close to phasing earlier run , swing and a miss.
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Definitely seeing a NW trend, Euro possible phase like what I see here.
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About 2 max 3 inches snow and a lot of sleet, winds are crazy, here in Surry County
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Latent Heat release with heavier rain, would probably occur if we se those 1.50-2.00 QPF forecast. So it would not all stick unless we are in lower to mid 20's
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FZ is fun while it's happening, but when it ends and no power for more than a week, that includes most places to get a warm meal. Been through it had my life experience i'm good with plain rain
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The numbers being spit out for FZ is historic in many states , when it comes to FZ I'm fine without being part of history.
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Just a few flakes here in Pilot Mountain/Surry County mostly light rain. The heavier returns look to stay south
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Plain ole Rain here
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Watching to see if NAO goes more negative . Also Placement of high and strength
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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:
Maybe we'll get a decent chance in March!
Agreed
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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:
Seems every model looks very anemic with moisture here in the N.Foothills! And even more pronounced as we get closer to start time.............
Agreed
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1 hour ago, calculus1 said:
Apps lee-side screw-zone in full effect! I would think if the precipitation truly blossoms that it would fill back in further NW, but maybe that's just wishful thinking...
Models seem to do this a lot, over doing NW flow coming off the mountains.
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Thunderstorms on the Gulf coast , probably robing moisture as well as warming the Atmosphere
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12 minutes ago, beanskip said:
Look, it’s time to be real on this storm. I know we have all become experts on hedging and caveats and flies in the ointment. But I go back the old Wright Weather boards 20 years ago and we have never, EVER seen a storm modeled like this. Consistent, run after run depiction of a historic event. Three inches of QPF paired with a classic CAD? Yes, the features will be better sampled in a day but I really don’t think Lucy can pull away the football on something like this. Even if the QPF is cut in half it’s still a monster. Even if the CAD is overstated by 100 miles, a large area will see more than a foot.
Bottom line: anything can happen, but I had to eventually wrap my head around a Cat 4 October hurricane and I wish I had accepted the inevitable sooner.
This thing is coming.
I remember being on wright weather as well. This has the potential to be historic for sure. I have never seen this many model runs with this much snow, never !
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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:
I’ll take a stab at this one. Growing up in Mount Airy, I always had the same question, because you’d frequently see the same thing modeled for that area. I believe (and someone with a legit background feel free to correct me), the models always try to predict lee side sinking. I’ve found that in these particular systems, coming up from the south, it rarely happens. Usually I just ignore the hole’s.
I'M with ya as well I call it, Mountain Shadow effect.
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3 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:
Wow! That’s a much different look than the kuchera map posted above for FV 3. Wonder what the difference is?
One is 6z less snowfal in NC, 12z more snowfall NC
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No High at HR.120. Bogus run
Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm
in Southeastern States
Posted
Need the Low to get going over the central gulf of Mexico for this to be a big snow maker, especially back to the West.