Holston_River_Rambler

Nam out to hour 27 could be better confluence, and the vort is moving a hair faster. But there could also have just been a high flying Sandhill crane fart in the wrong direction.

EPS mean through hour 90

Snow map:

Here is the precip map:

I think so too but was afraid to say it, so we'll go down together, lol.

Through 66 the vort is a little faster, stronger and a south of 6z.

Euro is rolling. A touch more confluence over NE at hour 42, than 6z.

We only like the UKMET when it affirms what we want to believe. Otherwise we toss.

I'm curious as to how it is showing an ice storm for central and N. east TN with that track. Is it downsloping the midlevels, but locking low level cold air in? I hate ice, but meteorologically that would be something to see.

He can't get in board until go time. He said it himself a storm or two ago. The jinx would come into play.

Beautiful: It shows some mixing issues, but the soundings are mighty close to being all snow: Here's one over the Pellissippi area:

It's making the turn and looks like it will rake E TN. A solid NAMing!

1002 mb low over Pensacola at hour 72. That would be a straight up Miller A. woot woot!

yeah, what a south jump:

Looks like it is trying to pop a 1008 mb low around Mobile at hour 60.

Some of the subtle differences are starting to pay dividends at hour 57. Base of the vort is probably 150 miles south of 6z.

Noticeably more confluence over NE I would say at hour 45. It isn't much, but enough to make a difference.

I think there is a hair more confluence on the NAM at hr 39. Like 4 pixels worth, lol.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ There are lots of parameters to toggle at the top.

now here's a real weenie post, looks like the SREF members like em some gulf lows, lol: I count 16 gulf lows or gulf coastal lows and 8 inland ones.

I think part of the problem we are seeing with the lp locations, has to do with the fact that this big ball of energy is just dropping in from the NNW. Normally with a bowling ball system like this it rolls in from the 4 corners and so pops an initial low in TX or the Gulf, but this system already has a surface low dropping in and so as the energy makes the turn, that low gets confused ( I know its not alive, but hear me out) wrt which boundary to jump to. Does it jump up into the eastern TN valley? Does it jump down to the toasty Gulf coastal waters? Does it stay near its energy? And while all this is going on, the system is moving, so pretty soon the Gulf stream becomes an option too. I think we want this energy to drop in so far south that there is never a doubt about where the low pops: the Gulf. I wish I knew more about the physics and meteorology of surface low formation so I could convince myself that the warm Gulf waters would override these other options.

If the TN Valley had a motto for winter storms, that would be it, lol. Ligans aculas

As I was trying to find a picture to help Dsty's question (I was looking for an ideal situation for the eastern valley), I found this reanalysis image from Feb 2014: This energy is much stouter, but we have a similar HP to deal with: Here is the radar of what that produced Again the energy that is creating this storm is stronger, so there is more worry of WAA and downsloping, but notice in 2014 we also had a kicker dropping in. Sure I would like to see a 2014 repeat, but I don't think that is exactly where we are headed. I will say though that that storm was one of the top analogues the MA folks kept throwing around a day or two ago.

Nary a clue. I will say that I think the 6z Euro was pretty close to having a deform band move across the state, but I don't know exactly how to recognize those this far out. But if that happened we could get higher than 10:1 ratios.

And I understand that the 10:1 isn't realistic, but at this point I just don't care, lol. That were a run for many parts of TN