Holston_River_Rambler

Hi y'all. first of all hope everyone scores big with this one. But I also just noticed that MRX was mentioning the possibility of a blizzard warning for their side of the mts above 4000'. I couldn't imagine winds would be less over there with that 850 flow. Didn't see any mention from GSP or Blacksburg, but I may have just missed it. From the overnight disco: Finally, the gusty winds in combination with snow will bring near blizzard like conditions to the Smokies, generally above 4000 feet. It is certainly possible a blizzard warning may be needed later, but for now will let the WSW handle it.

That's true too, there are so many variables that's why I was a little uneasy about interpreting it. One thing is slightly different, but how does that impact the other players on the field?

Well that's what I was about to say, lol. The 1,000,000 dollar question. I'm not sure exactly how to interpret it. Jack Sillin (I think a met grad student at Cornell) seemed to think it might be tied to the NAM being slower and more cut off, but the trend gif he is showing, also seems to be showing it trending south. I think we'd want to look for more confluence over New England (blue dots indicating 500mb heights are lower there) and the shortwave's trough being deeper than forecast (also blue dots). That website also verifies 700 and 850 mb temps, as compared to how the GFS initializes.

I'll probably be asleep when the 0z radiosondes come in, but if anyone wants to, here is a site to see how real time data is lining up with the GFS's modeled rendering: https://cyclonicwx.com/analysis/ Here's how he interpretted it at 12z:

I had to replace my dishwasher this afternoon. Any exciting model wavering since 12z? 18z Euro should be out in a few minutes.

In some of those "mix" areas there doesn't seem to be a warm nose (I only checked Morgan and Roane though) at hr 54.

Looks like the 12z Euro stills tries to run the 850 low up the valley, but in a tiny increment, I think it was better than 6z.

Euro coming in a little South and west with the shortwave over Oklahoma.

I'm just going to guess here, but looks like Chatty gets TROWAL'd on the 12z GFS.

Since you're on here right now @nrgjeff, I have a question. What is the best way to look for a TROWAL on the models. Obviously the models have problems resolving things like that, but is there a way to see some of the features like looking just NW of a low at a given pressure level?

They just started brining the roads on highway 27. It's over.

I don't know if what I'm about to say is how this works, but it looks like there is a weakness in the windfields that the 850 low is getting pulled toward: that seems to be what is encouraging it to pull north.

6z Euro. It looked a little better early, but still tried to run a low up the Apps. For y'all who watched it at 0z, is it an improvement? I haven't had enough coffee to figure it out, lol.

I think the 6z Euro is going to come in a tinge south with the vort as compared to 0z. Still a few more minutes until it finishes running.

I think the basic idea is pretty locked in. The main vort is entering the US and it looks to me like it is head basically where most models think (Arklatex region): I think there could still be some minor changes in the grand scheme, but most people's locations in this forum area are very sensitive to even minor changes. For me, the biggest question right now is, how far south does it dig? If we can get it to get as far south as the HRRR I posted above, that is a good sign. Hopefully that makes it harder for the 850 low to gain latitude and it will round the base of the Apps instead of running up into the eastern valley.

I know it is the extended HRRR, but at this point it's time to pull out all the stops for good news and trends. It is really digging the energy south at hour 48:

I like it when the orange colors start to show up.

It is the dreaded Gator head SLP presentation: Never good for TN.

Here is a comparison. The further south one is 0z:

0z NAM is a little south of 18z.

I've never seen one of these Miller B transfer types in my location, so will be interesting here. The more amped it is, the more it really wants to run an 850 circulation up the eastern valley.

18z Euro.

That might be the system Carvers was talking about earlier, but not sure.

RGEM looked better with the vort and 850 low:

Biggest change for me through hour 42 is how the vort looks. The more circular one is the 18z, the other is 12z: