Holston_River_Rambler

@Matthew70 Keep in mind this is only up through tomorrow AM:

It looks like it is still digging to me. I think it will make a run at the Gulf: Nice t-storms starting to pop there too (thankfully not parallel to the coast to cut off moisture.

It's wild that they would raise it just a couple of hours before they give the afternoon update, and then lower it. I could see if an event was ongoing and over or under performing, and people needed info, but that's just extra work, lol.

I'd say Crossville is about as close as you could get and have a hotel. Maybe @Shocker0 or @Wintersnow888 have some ideas?

Just looking at the run to run trends on the vort, it looks like the NAM is maybe playing catch up: Watch the leading edge of the vorticity run further into the FL panhandle each run

Man this sucker really seems to be digging to me. At the latitude of LA's northern border and still heading SE. It does look like it is starting to make the turn, but you tell me. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong water vapor level, but it looks SW of where the 18z 3km NAM has it. The above gif starts at 1 PM and is in hourly increments.

13 inches, 7 miles from me, as snowflake flies.

HRRR is an amazing run for parts of Cumberland county, but no snow for me, lol. Soundings are still doing that thing where the "guess" snow, but the model shows rain over my area and Roane county.

Looks like the 18z HRRR has a little more consolidated low SW of Atlanta at hour 26:

Is this one as big as Pinatubo?

The one morning I choose not to look at Himarawi 8, there's a massive volcanic eruption overnight

Hey man, I planned ahead for such circumstances, lol. I have a flizzard video from Lone Mt. State Forest:

Here's an experiment. Here is what the RGEM sounding has for me right now: That ain't bad. Neighborhood weather station is at 38 and we have snow falling. I mean, light snow and maybe some rain mix. If we had some good rates I think the boundary layer would dynamically cool.

And it is snowing again up here in MoCo. Very wet snow, lol.

IMO, based on the soundings, the hi res models really think we will suffer from insolation and downsloping tomorrow. It could be right, but based on what the soundings show, I would guess precip type will be rate dependent. I have a hard time believing that there won't be snow if we get good rates and are in the deformation zone and there's not really much of a warm nose. Here is a 12z RGEM sounding from just north of Chatt: If there's a warm 850 or 925 layer, it can rain even below freezing, but when temps are dropping with height, it just seems snow is more likely. We do live in the valley though, so if anything can go wrong....

I've been trying to see what the pivotal soundings say at TRI, but it pivotal apparently thinks I want a severe sounding instead of a winter sounding for that area. I tried to click a normally good down sloping area like N. Sevier or Greene county and it still says snow, even though the model shows rain, but where it shows snow in N. Grainger or Hancock county, the sounding guesses rain as the precip, lol.

I tried that and got down to Meigs county and the soundings showed precip. type as snow Sadly it said rain in Chatt.

Clicking on some of the soundings on Pivotal, it looks like some of the precip it is rendering as rain is borderline snow. I clikced on Knoxville on this map: and got this sounding: Looks like it may just be extremely shallow boundary layer warmth and not a warm nose.

Oh yeah, for my area we're once again invoking the weenie rule that lets us use upstream graphics if they are more favorable.

WRF ARW2 has the ultimate Holston snow hole: But the soundings on this model for my area show snow as the precip type when the model renders it as rain.

I upgraded myself to light snow with some nickel and dime sized flakes mixed in on my drive home. It’s let up some now.

Getting a few flurries on Lone Mt. in Morgan county. I’m at about 1500 feet pretty close to the bottom of the mountain.

No clue how this will impact it, but looks like the shortwave is running about 45 minutes to an hour behind where the mesoscale models had it.

Just noticed that MRX dropped a bomb at the end of their disco, for areas above 4000' Finally, the gusty winds in combination with snow will bring near blizzard like conditions to the Smokies, generally above 4000 feet. It is certainly possible a blizzard warning may be needed later, but for now will let the WSW handle it.