Cheers for Western Ears

I know this is a little late but... here is a shot I had the chance to get with drone from the Blue Ridge Parkway this past Sunday. I was fairly impressed that so many leaves were still on the trees after the hard rain and wind from Saturday night. 

Curious as to how this upcoming couple of weeks of forecast temps, should they verify, compare to the past couple of years?  Seems odd for it to be so warm so late in the year. Even compared to the last couple of years. 

Seems like the fv3 came a little north of the 18z. Not a bad look at this stage. 

Rain-Snow mix has now transitioned to mostly sleet and some light snow mixing in Clemmons. 

Rain-Snow mix here in Clemmons, NC. Just started mixing about 20 minutes ago. Was a drizzle before then. 

49 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The Euro ens have a few big hits for NC and several for VA,  hopefully we see more and more ens panels showing bigger hits going forward...I am sure 99% of the NC/VA folks would lock this panel in lol.....

 

How did the 12z op run look? 

8 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

FV3 toyed with it and another for the 21-22 at 6z.  So we have hints from the Euro, Fv3, GFS and the Canadian that something could be up around the 20/21 timeframe.

 We shall see.

It is encouraging to continue to see support from both the GFS as well as the Fv3 (op runs that is) is the Euro still in agreement at all? 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

EPS and Control in General agreement with the OP Euro... 1-3" in Northern NC/Southern VA

Could you post a map? 

5 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Brad P says next weekend is something to keep an eye on. That's good enough for me coming from him.

Where did you find this? 

36 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Next Wednesday/ Thursday system looks interesting for here in Southern VA... looks like a Rain to Snow Scenario... but some light accumulations could be possible with that storm.

Seems like the chances of some backside snow look better for NC folks as well. According to the 12z fv3 that is.. 

11 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

29 and light snow falling here between Meat Camp and Todd

Care to post pics? Not seeing anything at my current location but I am quite a bit lower in elevation than you. 

Has anyone heard or received any reports on how the storm is doing out west so far? Under or over performing? 

When do you guys suppose they will start issuing advisories and warnings for the areas affected by the storm?

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

I'm only concerned with what I'm going to eat for lunch, but what do you mean by concern?  The 12z run was a little flatter with the wave.  It has NE GA around Lake Lanier dropping to 32 deg at the end of its run at hr84 as precip moves in (Saturday at 7PM).  It doesn't have a big, long plume of moisture across the south though.

Yea sorry I should have been more specific as to what I meant. I meant the fact that the model seemed to be rather low on moisture compared to the other global models. 

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The NAM is definitely lacking moisture...

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but the NAM is showing the high moving into a favorable position for a strong CAD.  However, it does seem to be lacking in QPF.

Yea, sorry I wasn't clear to what I was referring to. I was talking about both the fact that it seemed well north and seemed rather low on qpf. 

Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. 

28 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

 Enjoy the snow   Bet the kids up here in Watagua will be out til Wednesday...be safe folks!

Wouldn't be surprised at all lol. What is your accumulation right now? 

7 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

We have nice size flakes here in my area...I am on Longhope road backed up against Elk Knob at 3600+ and it's snowing really nice   

Nice! You're in a prime spot it sounds like. Would love to be on top of Howard's creek near the tater hill area right now. Im located more north. Towards laurel knob. 

Snowing quite a bit in Todd. Fine flakes currently

1 minute ago, griteater said:

It’s a warning sign when the UKMet and GFS are out QPFing the NAM...big boy

In a good way or bad way precip wise? 

Do you guys expect the all too common nw trend to commence in the next day or so or are you guys fairly confident it will stay suppressed until show time? 

Grit, would you feel safe saying the mtns around boone/ashe could see over a foot realistically? Also are Temps a concern based off the latest models? 

Is it not a rarity to have so many models on board with a similar storm track at this point? I feel as if most of the time it is 2 vs. 2 or 3 vs. 1. I realize the fact that some solutions are warmer than others but they seem to all have a similar storm track (slider rather than cutter). 

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's usually colder than the global models during cold air damming, and warmer than the global models with its handling of warm nosing moving in from the south - which tends to be correct.  It's higher resolution, so it should handle those situations better....but it has to get the big picture right first, and it may struggle to get that right out at its outer range of 72-84 hour.

Thanks for the reply Griteater. So I guess that is why they say you should wait until within 48 hours until you really start trusting the NAM and not long range? 

I know that the NAM in the past has been relatively good with thermal profiles, but would you guys agree that the NAM has somewhat of a cold bias?