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Posts posted by kvegas-wx

  1. I needed a break in the action and fortunately had to travel to Aspen CO this weekend.  The weather is stunning!!  60s and 30s, beautiful days.  And we had snow flurries from a passing cloud yesterday at 12,000 feet going over Independence Pass.  I'll do whatever dance, ritual or sacrifice to the memory of John Denver that I need to do to bring this weather home with me to the Southeast.  

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  2. What is stunning to me about the charts above is that we ended up with 2018 being a near record Sept for heat....while we were having record annual rainfall amounts during a fall when we couldnt find a dry weekend anywhere and begging for it to stop raining.  That to me is even more impressive than this year.

  3. 29 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

    The only good thing I can see (model wise) about the next couple weeks, is that the NW US and SW Canada start to truly cool down after day 10. This will be our source for October cold (..hopefully frost/freezes). 

    Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct.  We are not going to get off the hook easy this year.  

  4. 2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

    Well the GFS lost the idea yesterday but thankfully shows a cool down still coming after the 25th, with a reenforcement at the end of the month. Still way out there, but the 25 is 11 days out. If we can get it inside a week I'll feel a lot better about maybe getting that cooldown we all need. 

    Look to the upper midwest at 6-7 days out and see if its really there.  Then all we need to worry about is breaking down the ridge.  I fear we are already seeing some familiar battle lines drawn.

  5. 6 hours ago, FallsLake said:

    Yeah, we're already getting temps in 80s/60s while we're in a bad pattern. In July this would be at least 90s/70s.

    Last year we started to see some foggy nights in mid/late September. We kept the higher dew point, and with the longer nights allowed the air to saturate. Looks like we might see more foggy nights this year...   

    And that may be the only moisture your lawn sees as well unless the tropics come through for us.  I didnt get a drop from Dorian in the Triad.

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  6. There are benefits.....it is much easier to kill my lawn for reseeding when it is bone dry.  And I was able to open up a mile or so of atv trails yesterday on the tractor without sliding around in mud.  Beyond that, this is miserable!  I just hate to rely on a tropical system to break the pattern because we all know how bad the inland flooding can be across the hill country.

  7. I know there are plenty of folks suffering, but for what its worth, the "good" parts of this storm are being felt well inland in the Triad.  Partly sunny with an awesome steady breeze.  This is roughly the same weather we get here every time a storm runs up the coast.  Just a beautiful early fall day.  81° and the breeze negates any humidity.

  8. 4 hours ago, thess said:

    Wake County schools closed tomorrow.

    What a joke.  Next month Wake County Schools close for a breezy fall day!  So ridiculous.  I can certainly agree when winds are forecast to gust over 50mph for an extended period.  But keep in mind folks, there are areas all over this great nation where that's a perfectly normal day!  

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  9. 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

    Hey guys help me out my geography sucks where exactly is the TRIANGLE or where does it go from ? Thanks


    Durham, Raleigh, Chapel Hill.  Roughly 20 mile sides I suppose.

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  10. The nighttime lows are starting to crash into the lower 60s here in the Triad but we still have a couple of weeks to get past the tropical influence and reset the fall progression.  Looks like we will be running 5-7° high for the next 10 days or so.  

    I swear if we get a SER that locks in I'll go postal.  I cant deal with that again this year.

  11. 4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

    How badly will I be internet shamed if I post my Nassau and CoCoCay Perfect Day cruise photos we are supposed to be on in 2 weeks??? 

    All kidding aside honestly I hope they change the itinerary.....


    You might be surprised.  They may port call and take you to Coco Cay and just not let you tour Nassau.  I bet they clean up Coco Cay real damn quick.  Two weeks is plenty of time to bring in dozens of private cleaning crews.

  12. 8 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    that's because drunk on power mid atlantic black ops mods hate NYC/NJ posters

    Nope, lets get it right.  EVERYONE hates (non red-tag) NYC/NJ tropical posters. (love you guys in the winter though, kind of funny to watch the freakouts)  Evidently people in the Bahamas have nothing on "Sandy Survivors".  Give it up people.  Sandy, by comparison, was a little coastal flooding combined with a few EF-1 tornadoes for localized heavy damage.  Most of an island was just wiped off the map by Dorian.  No equals here.

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  13. 13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

    Excellent breakdown of the steering features at play and their evolution over the next 72 hrs by Papin.

    So is one to impart that if the mid level ridge #2 in Papins discussion slides over the top of Dorian in the next 36 hours then he is blocked and will resume a westerly course into FL/GA?


    Edit - NM, just saw his part two.  Second ridge is expected to receed thus opening the path NNW up the coast.  Makes sense.

  14. Seems we are in unprecedented territory here.  So what likelihood is there that Dorian is so strong he is creating his own trajectory or impacting other steering currents to the point where models cant "see" it until it is too late?  If he chews up another 100 miles westerly a LF is all but certain into FL.

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  15. So basically 17k people are getting ready to endure a tsunami higher than their land mass and 175mph+ winds for a few hours.  Not your run of the mill Sunday.  Prayers, well wishes, thoughts, whatever you choose, for them all.  

    Was there even an evacuation effort?  I didnt hear of one.

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  16. Just now, Jaguars said:

    It’s amazing watching this thing churn due west on an absolute line.  Like zero wobble

    I was just looking at that as well.  If we wake tomorrow and Dorian is still tracking due west, the entire right side of the forecast track is a moot point.  He's going to LF in FL if only by a few miles.  Light steering currents arent going to turn a Cat 5 on a dime.  

  17. 5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

    And Royal Caribbean's Coco Cay (which RC just sunk a ton of money into).  And Norwegian's Great Stirrup Cay

    Me:  Watches YT video about RC's island that said those giant water slides were built to withstand Cat4 winds.

    Dorian: Hold my beer.

    Bahamas going to look a little different after this weekend I'm afraid.  

  18. 1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

    Looks like the generator is available for $300 off... but it doesn't get here until after it might be needed. Decisions, decisions...

    Save the $300.  Better yet, don't even order one yet.  Lots of hype here as with all first canes of the year.  But modeling still shows a very small storm, might not even be a Cat 2 at landfall, and still showing a greater likelihood for a FL landfall.  Even if it recurves and stays just offshore you will be fine in Charleston.  I'd play the waiting game on this one.

  19. 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

    Obviously meant 95. But you knew that.

    As unfortunate as it is, yes, yes I did know that.  I endure this miserable heat every day and countdown my weekends until October.  Almost there!

  20. 2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

    Today was the second hottest day of the year In the Triad, with a sultry High of 85. Take heart, 70s coming up this weekend!

    What Triad is this you speak of?  My Triad has had plenty of 90s??

  21. 1 hour ago, yotaman said:

    I hope it remains that way for the rest of the year.

    You never know....see Solak's post above from August 8th where NOAA increased chances for an above normal season.  It could get wild in Oct/Nov given SSTs.  The fuel is there.  You just need the pattern to tap it.

  22. Just give me Accuwxs "mainly pleasant" conditions all the way to Christmas Eve, then a 1 week long polar vortex between Christmas Day and New Years Day that dumps double our avg annual snowfall, then normal winter conditions for Jan/Feb and I'll deal with whatever is left over in March.

    It's not that hard Mother Nature.  It's just not that hard. 

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