Thinksnow18

Im not sure of the winter but there was a recent time in the last decade that a very persistent EC ridge/Bermuda high was hard to displace but once it did it was gone out of our neck if the woods the remainder of winter...could I be thinking 08?

What are the chances we flip the script and have our coldest 5 month stretch starting in November? That would be fine by me.

It appears that the CPC is still on board in the 3 to 4 week timeframe of things getting to a cooler than normal stretch as BuffaloWeather eluded do in an earlier post.

Never got out of the low 50's on the Niagara Frontier either and felt in upper 40's with northerly wind component

In becoming more optimistic that as the next couple of weeks unfold we might start getting quite excited for the first crack at colder conditions. There is plenty of cold air on this side of the Arctic which is a little unusual.

Without being able to do the research I wonder how each one if those winters later that year fared?

Man I tried talking the wife into a weekend out in the dacks in the next two weekends but we have other plans!!!

So while I struggle with the simple task of attaching a file to this thread I will point anyone interested to the 12z GFS at hour 240. It's a quick shot but the GFS has been consistent inverting to bring a definite shot of cold weather for a day or 2 around the Oct 6 through 8 timeframe.

Hey BuffaloWeather any thoughts to a new discussion? Now that it's fall and there are early signs of a chillier pattern shaping up in the long range maybe we can leave the summer page behind?

I agree with this...in fact I would be willing to say that this October snow advance in Siberia really got legs after 2009-10 winter that was exceptionally cold in the east. Beyond that year I too believe that what happens in Siberia may have a link to the PV strength but I don't believe it's correlated necessarily with our winter specifically say a weak El Nino or weak La Nina would.

So true. I have been very intrigued by the two seasons this year (well it seems spring never existed maybe fall will be different) so far. Winter was relatively persistent, with exception of February, right through April and summer kicked right in and has also been consistent. Should we see the pattern change in the long range that is now being advertised by many models I wonder if it will have the same staying power and we will see more consistent BN temps for a long period of time.

I have noticed some very early Oct Nov Dec temp outlooks and I have to say I'm a bit annoyed. One outlook from the CPC showed the northern tier of the country AN for Nov and Dec based solely on the prospects of El Nino developing. Great. How about some true research instead of just broad brushing based on the word itself? A weak El Nino has been, as BuffaloWeather has eluded to, tied to a colder and snowier winter. A stronger El Nino has been tied to milder conditions during winter. This current El Nino is forecast to be very weak to possibly just neutral enso conditions. Long winded diatribe to say that is poor forecasting.

Big fan of this forecast!!! It's been a great summer but it is time to start the trend to milder days and cooler nights by mid month...hopefully the forecast verifies!

Wow talk about waking up the tropics! First Gordon a high end tropical storm hits Mississippi last evening and some of those remnants might get entrained to our region early next week and now Florence way out in the Atlantic is suddenly being forecast to head due and and slam the Carolina coast at 192 hours out. Has good agreement on all models with variability in strength and exact location of US landfall. Good thing it's that far out in time and the track could still change.

Looks to be more of a western based or modoki El Nino. If that verifies the warmer waters would stay west of 3.4 and allow a colder scenario for our region.

Yes it was and I was able to pull up the buffalo winter summary '17-'18. Nov, Dec, Jan, Mar and April were all below normal with April being historically cold. So 5 of the 6 months were below normal witj February being do warm it almost pushed the seasonal average to normal for the winter period and did so do Rochester.

Buffalo Weather do you know where to find the 3 month stretch of Feb, Mar and Apr of 2018? I would tend to believe a very similar anomaly negatively would be likely. The bigger question is how strange would it be to have 2 seasons in the same year with such large temperature differences?

Looking at the long range feels like Charlie Brown as he stupidly tries to kick the football I know Lucy is bound to pull away!!!

Congrats THM! Like Buffalo Weather said yesterday having a poster in the heart of some of the heaviest snow bands off the great Lakes will be awesome for live updates!

The summers here usually offer a refreshing to warm experience. 2 of the last 3 summer's have been very different imo with less rainfall and more uncomfortable conditions. While the lack of rain makes it easy to plan day trips and the like, the humidity makes that very uncomfortable to keep those plans.

WNash I'm with you! The summer has been great but The humidity is starting to wear on me. Looking forward to a more moderate pattern and the beginning process to the changing season.

You have grass still??? I haven't seen my lawn since March 1st!

What fascinates me is we have now had continuous snow cover otg from March 1st to present and that will persist right through the 3rd week of March and possibly beyond.. When is the last time, if any we can say that?

Count how many times you can honestly say that in March in WNY

And alot will fall at night...with a snow pack on the ground...the last event had to fight very warm ground temps...not the case this time...3 to 6 at lower elevations is definitely plausible