LurkerBoy

How long and how warm does the modeled moderation appear to be? Early snow + weeklong torch = ratter smell 

Hot temps next week and no snow. Wow. 

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. 

Is it cold at least? Lol

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

i am crushed. thanks for stopping by! 

I’ll keep stopping by if you just stop generally 

Just now, mappy said:

i am pretty sure someone in the southeast subforum cares. 

More than I could say about anything you post 

Yeah I don’t know what he’s looking at 

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea this is turning into a fail quickly. Better hope the cold reloads after day 12 because its gone after day 7 on the Euro and EPS. 

Is it?

Current torch period underperforming for WNC

9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though.  You know where I am placing my bets.

The moisture isn’t gone...maybe if you’re only looking at the OP GFS. 

They will be better at 12z. Let’s not panic. 

29 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

We have never seen a prolonged stretch of warm weather like this. We have never seen temperatures close to 70° at night in the middle of January.

walk outside right now in shorts and a T-shirt sun is coming out to our west… You have never seen anything like this before on January 11 

 

I don’t know what the rest of the winter holds, but this stretch of January weather has been simply unprecedented. It is time to stop comparing this to previous warm winters and acknowledge we are in a new league now.

The cooler week ahead features temperatures at least 10° above normal with two days in the mid 50s. That is the big cool down coming tonight. Unprecedented

 

 

I've seen winters like this before. 

I don't get what all the panic is this sub is about...I just looked at the almanac and y'all have been like +1 until yesterday...normal NYC fluctuations, and yes they are quite warm at times but that's what the new climate looks like. 

Why all the sudden panic over the GFS?

Not gonna happen that way. It’s a long range American OP...lol if it showed big show we’d all be hesitant. 

Models suggest we get winter after MLK. 

Any snow in asheville before the big thaw?

Is the pattern ++++AN or just bad for snow?

What a nightmare. I’m afraid this is just what winter is like now. Thanks boomers. 

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Seeing signs low heights in the PAC get displaced in the LR. 

Is that bad 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream. 

The cutter is in the bag?

The overnight runs don’t look too bad to me...average 

I’m from NY originally. How common is U50s/60s on Xmas in these parts?

Officially no CAD for Christmas. Bummer 

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

All fugly as well?

Yep. 

22 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Fugly 18z GFS. 

GEFS. They look just like the EPS.