Waiting on snow

Just now, burrel2 said:

 I’m not basing my thoughts off clown maps. 

Time will tell. I feel good about seeing something. Just not sure on amounts yet. GSP still says rain along and south of 85 in their latest discussion but did state small changes could lead to a bigger storm. 6Z has those changes so we'll see where it trends.

15 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I feel good about at least 5 inches here after pouring over the data. Let the record show the biggest snowstorm of my lifetime was only 5.75 inches from the January 2011 storm. 
 

what could go wrong? Only thing I see at this point is rates not materializing like depicted which we need to cool the boundary layer tomorrow afternoon.

I don't know about that to be honest. These 10:1 maps can't be trusted. Maybe 1-2 inches if the stars align. But that's just my opinion.

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Anyone saying the last 3 winters are “normal” for the East coast, I’ll have what you’re smoking. From a regional and eastern US perspective, it ain’t just “you live in the south.” Binghamton, NY- you are excluded from this convo. It’s been a foul stretch, I’m sure March will save us!!!

I agree. Just because its the south doesn't mean you shouldn't expect some snow. When your average is 4-6 inches a year and you can't even get a damn inch in 2 years thats ridiculous and not normal. Well let me rephrase that, I guess its the new normal because it happens too often now. Screw global warming and anyone who denies it.

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I do appreciate pattern recognition and the fact that it does matter and increase your chances but I also can’t remember a time when we actually got a storm with nothing showing up on the models. I don’t care about an 18z gfs one run fantasy storm or one euro run, but almost always for something to happen here it stays somewhat consistent on the models from the long to mid range. I believe even though we have a decent pattern, the lack of anything showing does not bode well. Then what happens when we lose this blocking? I really am beginning to wonder if we get an accumulating snowfall in my part of N.C. this year. I hate to be so negative but burning through our peak climo with temps on the upswing in a few weeks just plain sucks. I understand those who hate the whining and negativity on this thread board but at what point do you lose hope? Outside of a great snowstorm that turned to rain in early December two years ago and really tainted the system here, it’s been 25 straight months of nothing. No real threats, no near misses, nothing. We haven’t even fought the wake county rain/snow line during that time, there’s been no system even remotely close to making it a nowcast scenario. And no, that ULL does not count. Those are screwball systems. The system I got two inches out of last year was fun but a total consolation prize. That was not a snowstorm, just a rogue event in a putrid year. It didn’t even stick to the road. I know we live in the south and I know snow is the exception, not the norm, but the total lack of close calls, forecasting storm inside 3 days (we’ve known our fate on every system last 2+ years 5 days out), and obvious lack of snow has made this the toughest period as a snow lover in my life. 
 

Vent over, I feel better lol. Onto fabulous February

Nice rant man! I couldn't have done better myself!

3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

People here in the upstate (outside the forum) are starting to talk about getting snow. I'm not going to be the one to tell them it's not happening. Winter stinks out loud here. 

You can thank Chris Justus for that as always.

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

I guess I was wrong lol

You and Orangeburgwx need to have a weenie contest!

1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

To the mid-Atlantic’s forum’s credit, they have chatter going even when the pattern sucks.  We clam up and go silent.  Maybe we’re all out doing yard work.

They actually have hope even in a bad pattern. It's hopeless here!

3 hours ago, Dunkman said:

Built up frustration? I haven’t had more than a glorified dusting since 2018. It sucks.

Exactly. I haven't had snow on the ground since 2018. Its almost 2021! That's ridiculous. And the 1st half of January looks like shit. And after that La Nina doesn't exactly scream a backloaded winter.

5 hours ago, eyewall said:

There is no doubt it looks like complete crap and cutter city on the GFS. I was pretty confident RDU would zero out this year and so far that seems to be on track.

I seriously doubt Raleigh zeros out. Raleigh always lucks out. Now here is different. I zeroed out last year and fully expect it again this year.

20 hours ago, Grayman said:

Man Orangeburg I’m a weenie but you might be the king. I would like to see a flake but ....

There is a guy named Ronnie Bobbitt in NC that makes Orangeburg look like a rookie when it comes to being a weenie! Orangeburg is pretty bad though.

5 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Good lord

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

You don't look at that and think its actually going to snow in Augusta over to Orangeburg do you?

11 hours ago, Solak said:

Sunday 06z GFS is now showing 0.12" rain for this week's super-saturation event at RDU!

Consider yourself lucky.

Screw winter. 

9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Some good news. 06z 3km NAM is too far north with the warm nose. It had it all the way up to near asheville at 10am . CC radar comfirms it's already crossing the NC/SC border and heading south.

 

12zz 3km NAM has fixed this issue, shows the warm nose much further south at 10am.

Yes but we just got completely blanked in the upstate. Absolutely no accumulation along 85.

34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

N Greenville and Spartanburg counties under WWA now!

Fake news! Nothing for Spartanburg county at all. Greenville and Pickens mointains have been added.

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Latest future radar on WYFF, has a quicker transition to snow! About 11AM it makes it to 85, about 2 hours earlier than last run! If we get any help, hour or two of clearing, maybe lower DPs, anything would help! Watching rain and waiting for changeover, is tough!

Those in house models are usually good at this range. I know because I've been burned believing other models saying snow and in house models being rain. And guess what? Rain it was. But as far as no WWA they must not be expecting many road problems and any accumulation to stay in grassy surface..idk

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not even a WWA here!

Are you shocked? I hope not. That should tell us to prepare for nothing but token flakes.

Just now, Extreme NEGA said:

850mb temps look good too. Got to imagine the snow maps are underdone at this range right?

I wouldn't say that because surface temps are a problem. You may waste a lot cooling the BL.

1 hour ago, SnowDeac said:

Looks like nothing but Apps/lakes cutters as far as the eye can see. Punt til early March?

Just punt the whole damn winter like I did back in early January and people called me crazy. It'll save you a lot of headache. It's over!

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

You can't get worse than no measurable snow.

No but it can very well be warmer which will result in snowless again.

On 1/16/2020 at 1:20 PM, eyewall said:

Next winter can't be any worse than this one so why not look ahead?

Oh but it can. I've heard that every year for at least 5 years now and yet here we are. Worse every year! I'll never make that mistake again. 

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Still in the 50's thru 240 and no obvious pattern change in sight.  I'm talking polar vortex lobe breaking off and crashing into florida and killing the orange crops kinda pattern change.  Thats pretty much what its gonna take right now.  So I'll leave this here and spend the rest of winter in the sanitarium.  

Stick a fork in this winter cuz its well past done.  

Time to spread the pre-emergent.

Look at the 18z GFS hour 348. You'll see what you're looking for!

Crickets in here and now I see why after seeing the 18z. Nothing but rain and no cold air to be found through day 10. After that not even worth looking at. This winter can't end quick enough. What a damn disaster.

There is nothing to see next weekend outside the mountains folks. Where would it get colder air from?  A phase? Good luck with that in the se and maintain a favorable track.

32 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

0.1 imby! Yessssssssssss

What a storm signal! How will I ever shovel all that GEFS snow!