Coach B

Only a bit of melting here outside of Lewisburg. Temp has been stubborn to move much above freezing. Took a hike to the top of the almost 1200 foot ridge behind the house. Guessing between three and four inches up there. House is about 990 and had 2" here. I've got to remember to add a snowboard up there for comparison. 

I'm sure I had a bit of melting/compaction overnight, but I ended up with right at 2" this morning. Fantastic little event for many of us. Sounds like the models were spot on with the finger of slightly heavier accums back into southern middle TN and for the Plateau. 

Ground now totally covered. Probably between a quarter and half an inch. Temp 33. I'm southwest of Lewisburg at about 1000 feet.

I've got all snow outside of Lewisburg. Temp now down to 34.

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The front finally makes it to the plateau on the CMC at hr 240, lol. 

 

Cold all the way to Tampico! 

10 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

To me the latest CMC  run came in closer in line with the GFS also overall. Kinda looked colder too me as well. I am right?

I don't think the 12Z CMC was as cold as its previous run or as cold as the 12Z GFS. However, it did have WAY more frozen precip than its previous run across the forum area. 

5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

It's like an old school Kuchera.  It takes into account melting and compaction for a usually more realistic snow total.

Interesting. I think for official measurements you are supposed to use a snowboard and sweep it clean every six hours. I've used a snowboard for several years now and it can vary quite a bit from old school ground measurements. If the ground is frozen solid, you'll get more with a ground measurement. If its warm and/or wet, you get significantly more on the snowboard. 

I don't know how to describe that trailing energy, but it seems some of the models are keying on it for any hope of accums west of the Plateau. 

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not sure why, but the TT site just flat hammers a larger area.  Has 8" for Chattanooga.

TT's Positive Snow Depth Change always looks more realistic to me:

OHX am Disco on next week:

"However, with that shift in high pressure influences eastward, an

developing inverted surface troughing pattern will develop as
first half of next work week progresses from a surface low
expected to be centered in far southern plains. Upper level flow
will increasingly developing zonal characteristics supportive of
passages of weak disturbances aloft as mid next week approaches
also. By the way, lows Monday night are expected to be in the mid
20s with highs on Tuesday warming to mid 30s to lower 40s and then
lows once again back in the 20s on Tuesday night. The set up of
this surface inverted troughing pattern would likely bring a good
amount of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. As one might, this
could result in a pretty significant overrunning/isentropic lift
snow event across portions of the contiguous U.S. Southeast
including mid state region. Certainly more additional upcoming
model runs needed for additional clarification and interpretation,
but with at least a couple of consecutive consensus model runs
advertising this possibility, cold air remaining in place from
initial early week artic high pressure system could potently set
the stage for a major heavy snowfall event across mid state
region. Again, this is not a given by any means this far out, and
is still outside our official 7 day forecast window. However, this
consensus model depiction set up is quite favorable for a heavy
snowfall event. Simply, the 2021 version of Old Man Winter may pay
a visit to our area early next week and leave in his wake a
winter wonderland type several inches of snowfall accumulation
event."

Measured .2" on the snowboard at home southwest of Lewisburg. Just a dusting in town. Roads, even at elevation, are just wet. Very small flakes dominated with a temp of 32-34. Oh, and we're in school! The central counties in middle TN seem a little more stringent about closing than those both farther east and west. 

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

This is the third of these SSW I've watched and I have to say, if this one doesn't do much, it will be the last one I care about. I've seen three now. the first one changed up the pattern, but it was too late in the year. The second one just reinforced a La Nina type pattern by enhancing Maritime Continent convection. This looked like it would be the big kahuna; percolating down to reinforce an -NAO, it also happened during prime climo. 

Now, I get it, lots of people have always said these SSW aren't much to care about. But I like to watch and figure things out on my own before I come to a conclusion, because you can't explain the hows and the whys of a decision, IMO, unless you have rolled it around in your own mind a few times. One way or the other, this will be the last one I need to watch. I've watched how Isotherm, griteater, Judah Cohen, Bastardi, Amy Butler, Simon Lee, Daniela Domeisen, as well as many people on this board, use and abuse these events and I think I have a feel for how they work, or at least enough of a feel for using them as a hobbyist.

So, if this one doesn't do much for MBY, or really any of our back yards, I'm not sure they're worth looking at anymore. If we have this "grand conjunction" of a SSW and -NAO in prime climo during an el Nino, I might watch it again, but otherwise, this one has until early Feb to show something. I took a month during the "good" event in 2018 and I'll give this one that long. 

I have been trying to remind myself while gazing at the long range that we were told a couple of things by these SSW experts:

1. They do not always lead to cold and snow for the eastern US. That said, they can still have a major effect on the pattern, most of us just don't really care if it doesn't deliver(myself included). 

2. Cohen talked extensively about a trickle down effect for us. We are usually third in line on these deals anyway. Siberia/China are first and they had historic high pressure/cold a week ago. Europe is second and I just saw some buried cabins in the Alps and a bunch of crazy snow pics from Madrid. So maybe this shows up by February here.  I think I remember reading there was often as much as a 30 day lead time on effects for us. Maybe we are rushing it?? I get it, even those of us who know better want to see some pretty maps on the ops or ensembles to feel better.

Measured .3 on the snowboard. Still snowing lightly, temp of 28. Some of the roads were snow covered when I was out earlier.

Ended up with 1.5" total on the snowboard. Secondary roads were awful when I was out checking for the school system last night. Got sideways twice coming off the big hill.

Not sure how to shrink the pics to fit? Sorry, getting old and left behind on the technology.

Looks like the southern Plateau may get blasted if those heavy returns in NE Alabama keep on their current trajectory.

7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

OHX seemed caught a bit off guard by all the reports of snow in middle tennessee. Many folks in middle Tennessee already have more snow on the ground than forecast. Check out Nashville national weather service FB post. Folks posting video and pictures from all over middle TN.

 

https://www.facebook.com/121353247940968/posts/3614401791969412/

 

 

 

 

Just saw a picture on the Nashville news of a full size snowman in Summertown. OHX has now expanded the WWA across their southern counties.

I like that the 12k and 3k NAM as well as the RGEM are actually bringing some accums to even some non Plateau areas back into middle TN. This one is going to be close. Pretty good spread on the boom or bust potential for the southeastern half of mid TN and the valley locations in east TN. 

Pretty good snow shower just passed through here. Wasn't really expecting it. Briefly whitened the car tops.

32 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The strat warming is actually underway now. Whether we benefit or not remains to be seen. By by and large we eventually see more snow than normal in the 60 days that follow.  

Webber has pointed out the likelihood for a greater percentage of Miller A's or hybrids with the potential pattern later in January and through February. Anyone willing to share what that might mean for our general area?

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Snow reports down to the Alabama boarder assuming it’s not fake news.

 

I'm about 30 miles north of the border and can confirm a mix of rain and snow pellets. 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Rick Barnes and the basketball team getting covid is the most 2020 kick to the UT fanbase there could be. Hopefully they are all okay, better yet, hopefully it was a false positive like we've seen before with some NFL teams.

Sounds like they've shut it down for a couple of weeks by cancelling the games with Gonzaga and Notre Dame. At this point they might as well all get it just to get it over with. 

On 11/15/2020 at 1:49 PM, Carvers Gap said:

I feel certain that we have some actual farmers on this forum, even if they just lurk some.  @Coach B, is this in your wheelhouse?

Sorry just now seeing this. Nope, I can talk cows, chickens, bees, and firewood. That's about the extent of my country living.

49 at 1:00 in the afternoon on May 6th. Ughh! I'm going to have to bring another load of firewood to the back porch for this weekend. 

53 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

This must've been at least one of the events, and one that John is referencing as well. This post is mainly about West Tennessee, but the way they mention it seemed to be very spotty and hop around from place to place sounds a lot like what I remember from that system.

In fact, in the image at the link below, it shows about 9" of snow for my current location in NW Cumberland County (I lived in SE KY in early 2004 during this event and we received nothing in this storm), and virtually nothing in Monterey, only ten miles away!

https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_2004-02-15

Great find! That's the most narrow heavy snow band I've been in. I'm right on the edge of the bright band on the sat pic in the link. Think we got about 5-6" here. Maybe 20-25 miles wide. 

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I agree. I'm right at 1300 feet and almost every hill I crossed heading north on HWY 27 that put me up even 200 ft there was a temp drop and snow. 

Similar back this way. I had a mix most of the way into Lewisburg. However, when I went over the ridge at about 1100' it was almost all snow.