Coach B

We've spiked well above forecast into the low 60s. Actually feels nice outside. 

Can't complain at this point in the winter for most of middle TN based on this map. Looks like Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle along with much of Illinois and Indiana are the biggest losers. 

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it. 

It was almost ridiculously low for my area. It was so consistently low I questioned what in the world it was blending? Not any of the models I was checking.

Ended up with a little over 4". Elevation definitely helped.

I measured a full inch already here in Marshall county. It was absolutely dumping quarter sized flakes at 5:30. Unfortunately it has switched back to rain. Kind of surprised that it flipped back after pouring heavy snow. 

20 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

NBM must rely heavily on the HRRR. The 21Z ends up looking almost exactly like MRX’s call map. No bueno for the valley.

HRRR has been giving me near foot totals here in Marshall county, yet the NBM is showing less than an inch. I have no idea what it's blending, but it's not any of the models I'm watching. The fv3 and see of the SREF family is really low, maybe that's it.

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It's not finished running yet, but here is the 12z trend:

Excellent shift to the south for southern middle and much of east TN. 

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

 I'll always take a 3-6 inch all snow event vs a risky mix or 12 inch gamble. 

Amen to this. Although for all of us in the less than perfect locations off of the Upper Cumberland I'll take a 2" all snow event over the risky mix or 4"+ gamble. 

Finished with 5.5" on the snowboard. Power is still on, but it's touch and go. 

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Is this more than your local area was expecting?


.

Official forecast was 1-3. I'll be surprised if there are not some 6" jackpots in southeast middle TN. 

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

Left Spring Hill with 2-2.5". The drive up 65 to 440 wasn't terrible; however, I got the impression TDOT wasn't tapping in fully into their copious salt supplies. As a former TDOT employee, the road quality tonight baffled me.

According to Google maps, everything south and east of Nashville is slow, including the interstates.

Just saw a picture of 5" on the Marshall/Lincoln county line. It was still snowing. 

I'm closing in on 3" here in southern middle TN. Scattered power outages showing up as well!

Still ripping here just outside of Lewisburg. Have to be close to 2" with all surfaces covered. Haven't been out to the main road, but the driveway and sidewalk are white. Temp down to 30.6

Here in southwest Marshall county I've got all snow with a temp of 32.5. Just measured .5" on the snowboard.

HUN just upgraded to a WSW as well!

4 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I can't tell if the issue show on the HRRR in the valley is just temperatures (in which case I believe rates will trump it), or a loss of forcing from the deformation zone. If it's the latter, someone is getting screwed.

Could be a combination of both. If you look closely at the 12z HRRR accum map, there is a bit of a gap in middle TN as well. Just like always, there is going to be winners and losers based on elevation and where the bands develop.

My temp has dropped into the upper 50s with steady rain in S mid TN. Sure doesn't have the severe feel??

Appreciate all of the play by play from y'all. There seems to be much disappointment/frustration out there from many on our current pattern and the forecast for the next two weeks. However, my hope is that we can time up a slow tour through MJO phases 8 - 2 just in time for our peak winter period in mid to late January. All those of us outside the mountains need is a week or two of the goods.

17 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I would live up on Roan Mt about 4k feet.


.

Tom Niziol, a retired winter weather expert from the Weather Channel and the NWS, is a great Twitter follow. He has a house at Roan Mountain and consistently posts great weather updates from there as well as winter themed things from around the nation. He is one of my favorite follows!

5 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Chattanooga!

12 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said:

A quick peek at the forecast this morning sees us with 100% chance of snow of 5-8 inches. I have not looked at any models yet.

I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up.

1 minute ago, Shocker0 said:

Was that forecast for you guys or was it expected to be mostly snow at this point?

I was supposed to get mostly freezing rain with the first batch where I am south of Nashville, but I've got mostly sleet with lots of snow grains. I'm holding at 25 for now. 

46 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

What do you think??

I think the all snow forecast will be wrong, but I hope it's right!

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not the sight I was hoping for (but still out to hour 138), but still noteworthy for its ice depcition:

 

Frozen in New Orleans and Macon, but a warm nose into middle TN.