RevWarReenactor

Thanks PSU. I don't deny that late Nov and early December was a great pattern that broke the wrong way for us. It is why I was so disappointed. I was told, calm down its only December 8th, but the truth is, snow is so rare here, that any missed opportunity, is a huge missed opportunity. They simply don't come around often (outside of the 1 in 30 year winter). I guess I am just projecting the last few years of "its only 2 weeks away" followed by it never coming, onto this year, and its wrong for me to do that,..................................... I hope. But I can sit here now and remember 12/27/2017, when we were sitting in the tundra and no precip, that the date of 20 Jan was identified as when things would reset. It is just flashbacks that have no scientific basis. So I apologize. Hopefully we get something out of this year.

You're right. Moment of weakness. I apologize.

"South of us" doesn't count. 1-2 inches is not a snowstorm IMO.

You have been consistent for a few weeks now. You've been highlighting the Jan 20th period and beyond. However prior to that, you were thinking that is was likely we'd get a storm before Xmas. Most late Nov forecasts were for a very snowy winter. That hasn't worked obviously. Either way, we've been down this road before. Last year at this very time, we were talking the "delayed but not denied" and it didn't work out. The "delayed but not denied" game hasn't worked for us for at least a few years. Everything is always 2+ weeks away.

You its taking a turn for the worst when PSU is busting out his good old "averages" speel when just a week ago he said we might be sneaking a good storm in before Christmas. Hopefully we can turn this around.

Snow is apparently quite a rarity here. So a near miss storm at any point is very disappointing. It was December 9th last year too. Remember how that turned out?

You can't make this stuff up. I feel bad for DC, truly. Cruelty beyond belief.

Exactly its way too early. Our Winters start after Xmas. Anything prior is a fairly rare bonus. Lets not get carried away with blockbuster expectations. Of course lthe last few years, of things just not "breaking right", is still fresh in everyone's mind.

Unreal that this is Mid November and already beats last year. Want to keep expectations in check with climo, but things are sounding amazing.

I mean, I get it. They don't want yahoos out there killing themselves, hampering cleanup efforts, putting EMTs lives in danger, etc.....plus it seems as though they have the legal basis for it. It still just feels very wrong to me to be standing on public land and being told I would arrested if I don't leave. I've personally had this happen to me on a public beach.

Huh, that is interesting. I mean I do get the public safety argument. But it just feels a bit too far. Essentially, Hurricane chasing is illegal in this country. I wonder how Josh bypasses that law. Would be interesting to find out. Because it now seems like a common practice that if a Hurricane is coming to somewhere, it suddenly becomes illegal to so much as be there. You can't get a hotel, they close it. You can't hang out in a car, they will knock on your window and tell you to leave or else. Basically the only way is if you actually own property on location, even then, they are going to highly encourage you to get out. It just seems like a bit of a stretch to me to be able to arrest someone for such reasons. Feels like the government might be coming close to violating constitutional rights.

I am not sure why, but its an issue that just really gets me so angry. Don't tell me I can't walk on public property. If you want to tell me that I am on my own and no rescue help will be available, that's totally fine, but law enforcement telling someone they can't peacefully assemble on public property is a huge rights violation.

Another can of worms, these "curfews" where it is illegal to assemble on public property. They are unconstitutional. Government has been using them more and more. They literally closed an entire barrier island and the people who remained would be ticketed for leaving their house. Sorry. Not legal.

They fire people on a dime there, so I suspect it was top brass who put him up to that stuff.

I would have toned it down. Yes, preparation is great, but leading the governor in NC to say its the storm of a lifetime is a problem. Why? because people who weren't that effected will stay next time. I think the NHC should know by now that model intensities are terrible. Need to tread lightly. The stall and crawl and just climo in general argued heavily against a CAT 4 or even a CAT 3 coming in. I'd even say a CAT 2 was a stretch. But people on here even started whispers of a CAT 5. THE NHC put out that people should expect winds of up to 120MPH. They forecasted a CAT 4 moving in at one point. That was overkill IMO. Again, there needs to be a balance. People need to take it seriously, but they get too carried away with the hype and ignore climo.

I guess I just don't understand why people can't bring themselves to admit where there was screw ups. Its a fact that this didn't hit the strength that it was forecasted to hit. Thats all. And thats huge. It is something we should have learned from last year with Irma. In most professions, when there are screwups, people get fired. The least that could be offered is , here is what went wrong, here is how we plan to learn from that in the future.

I don't think this even begins to touch the flooding of Harvey, but maybe the final chapter hasn't been written, so I don't want to speak that soon. If this ends up competing with Harvey in terms of flooding, then yes, we could say its a once in a lifetime thing. A higher end storm would have made a huge different. Take a look at Hurricane Bertha from 1996, which kind of sorta had a similar landfall area. It hit as a Cat 2, and I can tell you now, damage was far more extensive to the shoreline. I was there a week after it hit. The surge just isn't the same. That is with a Cat 2. If we saw a 3 or 4 as forecast, the storm surge would have obliterated thousands and thousands of homes that are in relatively okay condition with the Cat 1. To me that is a big difference.

Yes.... hence why I said there is no question the storm is bad. But the flooding was in the forecast already the cat 3 or 4 at landfall was a blown forecast and that makes a huge huge difference. Instead of looking at entire shorelines of houses totally gone we are looking at just dune erosion( in most situations)

Storm was bad no question about it. But it wasn’t the “storm of a lifetime” nor “ the strongest to ever hit the east coast”. As media liked to hype pre storm. It all came down to blown intensity forecasts. Big difference between cat 4 and cat 1’s no matter how you slice it.

Consensus is pretty crazy. Looks like Morehead City/ Beaufort/Emerald Isle are finished. Its really a shame. Been vacationing there since 1990. It really been built up a lot in the last 10 years. Bogue inlet pier has survived Fran, Bertha in 1996, and all the rest since. They just installed a brand new pierhouse. Thats all bye bye if this goes as forecasted. All those new million dollar houses on the beach with no protection.......

Its only June 13th.

I have one that keeps popping up at the bottom of the screen. One was for treatment of premature ejaculation. No joke. Just FYI, I don't have a problem with that. Thanks/

Does Jose really matter at this point? Even if it weakens quicker and is out of the picture, what would pull Maria in? I think yesterday there might have been a slight chance, but now it has the storm like 600 miles OTS.

I am in Delaware and I go to the Mid Atlantic Forum. This place is dead. My weather doesn't always conform to DC, but areas as far north as northeast MD do get mentioned which is only 50 miles from Philly. It's also better on the days with a more northern snowstorm where DC gets 2 inches and I am looking at 6 inches and I can feel like I am in the sweet spot VS going to a NYC subforum and feeling like I am getting hosed.

I quit my idea of being a MET after my first year in college. The math I needed was RIDICULOUS. I am SO glad I got out. I have a good job that I like and I am making more now than I would have being a MET. I can still have meteorology as a hobby. No problem with that.