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Negnao

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Everything posted by Negnao

  1. Negnao
    We’re doing well in moco so far. Everything is white and it’s coming down at a good clip in Potomac. Rooting for the DC crew. Seems the precip skipped right over them.
  2. Negnao
    8 inches expected at the mall. NWS is officially all in.
  3. Negnao
    1.21 mean qpf at dca on the sref. LOL edit-the outliers are the few members that are low. Huge cluster around and inch
  4. Negnao
    The NY NWS seems to think the euro and sref is too far north based on radar: So far observations and radar data show that the ECMWF and SREF mean are to far N with their measurable precipitation over Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. As a result, have lowered pops
  5. Negnao
    It’s still a sizable shift and can’t be a bad thing. Just reinforcing good trends. .8 mean at dca and even gets .16 up to JFK.
  6. Negnao
    Last I looked they had 4 inches as the expected snowfall for the national mall so this is in line.
  7. Negnao
    DT’s first guess was mocked but it looks like today’s runs give it more credibility. He nailed the December storm too.
  8. Negnao
    Looks like the 6z run of nam this morning.
  9. Negnao
    Rgem at hour 54 looks good too.
  10. Negnao
    You’re 100% right that in a bad winter and after the pac puke pattern that a 1-3 or 2-4 deal will be refreshing given we also have better prospects going forward. That said, I think it’s reasonable to have some level of disappointment with the runs today. The gefs was great for the December storm and some of us in here were hopeful it could be as reliable for this storm. Moreover, the 6z was really bullish. That kind of change in 6 hours is not fun.
  11. Negnao
    Fv3 was a good run. It does show the 95 corridor mixing but that can probably be discounted.
  12. Negnao
    18z fv3 showed how too amped doesn’t work. 850s hit the mason Dixon and dc went over to rain.
  13. Negnao
    Quite sure. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190108 12 UTC&param=snodpth_chng&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1
  14. Negnao
    Fv3 has a couple inches in the ground area wide through hour 113
  15. Negnao
    I don’t think most would take a dusting. Of course accumulating snow and even a warning level event is still possible.
  16. Negnao
    6z gfs isn’t that different than the euro. It still works out for you guys in the southeastern sub forum but doesn’t look great for the mid Atlantic right now.
  17. Negnao
    DC flips to a mix or rain then back to snow. Classic megalopolis storm on that fv3 run. Much improved from 18z.
  18. Negnao
    FV3 is a NE special. Cities here don’t do well
  19. Negnao
  20. Negnao
    Washington Dulles and Philadelphia have just about the same annual snowfall. 22 and 22.4 respectively. Baltimore also over 20.
  21. Negnao
    We really need that Hudson Bay shortwave to deepen and lower the confluence ne of us. That seems to be the feature to focus on
  22. Negnao
  23. Negnao
    Sref is 40 percent chance at dca as well.
  24. Negnao
    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0
  25. Negnao
    It’s never polite to say someone is getting dca’d. Worst insult in the weather business.
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