chris21
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Posts posted by chris21
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42 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:
Yes but it’s mid March. It’ll be too warm.
Mid March is still game on for the mountains. Lowlands are another story, but PSU land can still score as well.
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Absolutely pouring snow at Beech. About a half inch so far, road just caved. Temp is at 30 and falling. Radar looks interesting
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8 hours ago, MotoWeatherman said:
I can confirm those amounts at my place also at 4650 on Beech (west of Ski resort).
I went up to the top yesterday and there was almost certainly a bit more snow on the west side than on top.
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Picked up somewhere between 4 and 6 inches on the west side of Beech at 4700 feet. Serious drifting and Blizzard conditions last night and constant flurries/light snow of varying intensity currently. Temp has reached 32.
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Temp fluctuating between 28-29 with winds still gusting to 40. Snow has picked up considerably and is accumulating on all surfaces up here at Beech. Blowing snow is already reducing visibility up here.
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Flash freeze up here on Beech this morning with 45-50 mph winds. Currently 30 and dropping fast, still in the clouds with light snow starting.
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I’m up at Beech for the next week so I’ll be providing updates when the weather gets interesting. Unbelievable south winds last night, 50 mph gusts easily.
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7 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:
It will probably change, but GFS op looks good for multiple MTN chances after this week.
EPS looks amazing
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53 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
I’ll be up at Beech Mountain at that time and hoping 5500 feet of elevation can lead to a miracle in this “shit the blinds” pattern
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28 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:
Norfolk Airport, over 250 miles+ away, is sustained at 40 MPH gusting to 53 MPH. Impressive wind field and on ground verification. Even Wallops Island, Delaware is sustained at 36 gusting to 51.
Wallops Island is in Virginia.
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4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:
Euro is…different. Low just meanders and weakens off GA coast.
Somewhat similar to the Canadian but weaker on the Euro. Strong high in New England may prevent a quick escape north.
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GFS/Euro showing a home brew scenario after hr. 150 east of Florida.
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1 hour ago, FlashFreeze said:
Hurricanes are no fun. I spend a lot of time in Pawleys Island SC and anything over a 2 would create tremendous destruction and if the storm was to recurve and hit CT here on top of the hill in Barkhamsted there would most likely be serious destruction and the surge along the LI sound shoreline would probably take years to repair
Might be getting ahead of yourself here.
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23 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:
Does this track a little closer to Jacksonville?
It jogged east and the models are showing an east jog this morning. Will pass closer to Jax than thought yesterday.
Power has been flickering this morning already in Avondale.- 1
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4 hours ago, 87storms said:
That's a bummer. I live in Frederick, MD and have had maybe an inch all season from 2 jeep-toppers and a non-accumulating snow shower lol. This winter has not been friendly to the east coast, in general.
So I’m from the DC area (grew up there and lived off and on for 30 years). I’ve also lived in Asheville and am planning on moving to Boone area later this year/early next year. In general, Asheville has a similar snow climo to DC but once you get west and north slightly it improves dramatically. An hour north of Asheville on the Tennessee border some areas average over 90 inches of snow and those areas have at least 30-40 inches on the year. Outside of the northwest flow zone though it’s been pretty awful.
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12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:
The good news is it can’t be worse! Im skeptical how much it will help myself. But at least then we will know. If we get a modoki Nino and Baltimore gets 7” or something, after the last 7 years also, we know the party’s over and it’s time to just move on. This is simply the new normal. My guess though is that better is still better. The question is how much better. But I do think we are still capable of 20”+ seasons. But the bad years will likely continue to be so bad that the decades of Baltimore averaging close to 20” are probably out of reach.
Hence why I’m moving to the area to the area around Banner Elk, NC next year. We’ve always loved the area and the climate is far more to my liking.
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Still 31-32 at 4600 feet at Beech. Winter wonderland with no real melting at all.
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1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said:
Looks like totals are being cut back since last night's 0z nam run? Correct me if I'm wrong
Perhaps slightly but guidance has been remarkably consistent with upslope QPF for this event run after run.
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13 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
Really weird solution with the gfs. This is going to cut our totals way back for NW flow snow.
Looks like a fair amount more northwest flow to me. Around 16 inches at Roan this run.
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26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:
Yeah, if it’s trending that way, it’s not even worth a chase to Deep Creek
Ehh… they’ve been getting a decent upslope event even from the most meager progs and has been trending pretty steady. As warm as it is for the lowlands, as depicted, the highlands will be cold enough for moist, northwest flow.
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57 minutes ago, GaWx said:
12Z EPS is consistent with the model consensus trend away from a SE winter storm threat during 1/13-15. So, the January of 1933 scenario of warm practically all month surrounding an isolated two day cold that included a big RDU January 13th snow is now looking highly unlikely.
Does it still look like upslope for the mountains in the EPS. I havent been able to check the snow probs.
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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:
@Maestrobjwa its a long weekend next weekend...take off Friday and go chase the storm if you are that upset about it. There are healthier ways to cope.
I’ll be at Beech Mountain, NC for my bachelor party! Hopefully we see a couple flakes at least
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Euro now showing a huge ice event with temps 29-31 in the northern mountains.
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8 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:
With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ?
Every model shifted north significantly at 12z. We’ll see.
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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
in Southeastern States
Posted
I love how nonchalant these outlooks are when snow is only expected to impact the high country. Had a similar outlook a few weeks ago when I was up at Beech and the roads were completely covered with drifting/blowing and zero visibility. Def a few slick spots Lolol! Those conditions would absolutely shut down a major city.