JoMo

Guessing we had probably 4" or so before it melted. Big flake size, it was very pretty, and then a few hours later it was almost all gone.

It's a freakin' snow globe out there. Big flakes, cached to the trees and it's coming down at an impressive rate. 

Snow coming down at a good rate here now. It's accumulating due to the rate. 

On 2/9/2024 at 7:11 PM, MoWeatherguy said:

Surprised by the lack of comments on here about this upcoming snow event.  Albeit to affect a pretty small part of this region.  Something to pay attention to, though, with some possible heavy banding. 

Eh.. for me it's the marginal temps and narrowness of the band of heavier snowfall and where that narrow band ends up. 

3 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Euro is an outlier this far south for now but sure looks nice. 

00z GFS was south as well

Well, at least this time the Earthquake wasn't accompanied by tornado warnings....

Looks pretty boring winter-wise through the first week of Feb. 

55 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Upgraded from a winter storm watch to an ice storm warning here. Ugh, really hope we don't get too much of this stuff

0.25 to 0.50 with 20+ mph gusts. Yikes. Hope you don't lose power. 

7 hours ago, MUWX said:

Temps are going to be warm enough to keep it from accreting efficiently up here I think. Roads are a different story 

Ground temps are really cold due to the recent arctic air so it will probably accumulate pretty easily, but with southerly flow, it will eventually turn to just rain as there's no continued cold air advection feeding in. 

8 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

EURO, GFS, and CANADIAN have all latched on to some freezing rain Monday and Tuesday next week. The Canadian is obviously the most aggressive, but all three put out some significant numbers in some spots. I always worry when arctic air is retreating about a scenario like this. 

The Canadian is probably too cold, that seems to be a bias it has. It does look like there will be some freezing rain though but temps do look to warm for most of us by the afternoon. Maybe not for Doramo's area though. The 00z Euro did come in several degrees colder with more freezing rain. Gonna have to be watched. 

6 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Nah, sleet never sucks. And ice storms on a visual standpoint can actually look very interesting with all the glaze and icicles on everything.

Snow (just like tornadoes) is just extremely overrated and because of the media.

Yeah, sleet sucks when you are expecting a lot of snow, and the amounts are gobbled up by sleet instead. Not to mention the annoying "ping" sound against north facing windows. Small amounts of freezing rain/ice accumulation make the trees very visually striking, but too much is very destructive. Gets a lot of the dead limbs out of the tree though.

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

As far as winter wx goes, I find ice/sleet/graupel storms to be way more interesting than snow ones. Especially all the glazing and sometimes Huge icicles on everything in ice storms. And sleet & graupel, sometimes bouncing off everything which is even more fun to both watch & hear as it's happened a few times down here in southern TX (along with a minor ice storm, Christmas snow storm & even a little thundersnow) during the past 20 years. But there's also another type of sleet that I've seen as well that looks like transparent salt particles (instead of the more common white ball type that look more like very tiny hail stones).

In ice storms, sure there can be damage involved (especially when icing accumulation gets over 0.25 in. causing bigger trees and more wires to snap). But from what I've seen over the years, they don't seem to be too common up there in this topic's region of the Midwest/Plains. So that also makes it more interesting to see what happens if that's the case.

As far as what I peeked at on globals about the potential one next week in this topic's region, GEM/ICON are showing a lot of it in OK, AR, MO with some heavier icing. But.., Euro shows virtually zip ice & surface temps around 40 F in a lot of areas.

Sleet sucks because it could be snow. Nothing more annoying than having a storm that's supposed to produce a good amount of snow end up being a sleet storm because it's 33 degrees in some part of the atmosphere and the 'warm nose' wasn't modeled well. Ice storms suck worse because you lose trees and power lines. 2007 was the year of the ice storm here and with over 1" of freezing rain is crazy and everything looks like an alien world. 

Nothing like being -1 outside with steady snow coming down, even if it is small flakes. Long range forecast looks the same still, gonna lose the -EPO and the source of cold until late month when it becomes re-established. 

It was never going to be a super big storm, it was a weak/dying shortwave moving though. With that being said, 2-4" of fluffy snow is generally possible due to how cold it is. It may even overperform in the most prolific band. Looking ahead, it looks like we should lose the -EPO in a week or so but it looks to reestablish itself by the end of the month.

Looks like they moved the Buffalo game to Monday since they are expecting FEET of snow. 

With that being said, Go Chiefs!

Yeah the 06z GFS has an additional round on Monday night-Tues this run. Interesting stuff. 

06z runs of most of the models looked a bit better though. 

Looks like Lucy is up to her old tricks again. Even more dry and almost a non-event on the 00z Euro tonight. 

Well, this type of system is all about the atmospheric response to the upper wave moving through and the temp advection at the 850-700 MB layer lifting up and over the cold air at the surface. The stronger the wave, the more lift that will be generated. If it comes out flatter/weaker than the temp advection will be weaker as the winds won't respond as much and the lift will be less, which generates less precip. There's also going to be banding that sets up where the lift stays the longest and that's the area that will get the heaviest amounts. 

Yeah the 12z Euro has a weaker/flatter wave which results in very little snowfall production. 

Morning Tulsa AFD for brief thundersnow chances with Friday system:

Quote

However, recent CAMs have been more
aggressive with frontogenetic snow banding and suggest periods of
heavier snow are possible. In fact, there have been hints of some
weak instability co-located with this feature, and a stray
lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out if this does end up
being more convective in nature. This in turn may lead to a period
of more prolonged snowfall and locally higher amounts generally
up to 2 inches or so. Held off on issuing any winter headlines at
this time, but especially considering the timing of this system
will overlap with the morning commute for many... and the recent
upward trend in snowfall... Winter Weather Advisories may be
required.

And for Sun/Mon

Quote

Additionally,
guidance is converging on the idea of a potentially impactful
winter storm for the region Sunday into Monday. Snow amounts will
be refined within the coming days, but with snow ratios between
15:1 and 20:1, snow accumulation will be efficient.

Springfield AFD on Sun-Mon

Quote

While these liquid equivalent amounts do not seem like much,
snow- to-liquid ratios will likely be pushing 20:1. Thus, a
light and fluffy snow will be favored with much more efficient
accumulations. P-WSSI output is showing 40-60% probabilities for
at least minor travel impacts.

One final note regarding the potential system for Sunday/Monday.
Given that one of the main drivers for potential snow would be
that short wave trough, it is highly likely that the track will
shift given its low amplitude. Keep up with the forecast as we
start to get a better feel for this system later in the week.

On 1/6/2024 at 4:22 PM, JoMo said:

Tuesday system going farther north on the 18z GFS. Friday system still looks good, but we aren't 24 hours away from it yet, so it'll probably end up in Iowa or something by the time we get to Fri.

This looks like it's actually going to come true. Winter Storm Watch for pretty much all of Iowa for this storm that was looking good for us 4 days ago, lol

Wind Chill Watch out for most of KS for -15 to -30 wind chills. Sat evening through Tues morning.

Yeah the Fri system gets screwed up because there's a small piece of energy to the north that doesn't fall apart until it's too late so the trough stays positive for far too long. Early on that wasn't supposed to be there so we had a strongly negative trough coming through pushing all kinds of precip back in the cold air. One small thing can screw everything up, though. The 00z GFS looks very cold for a very long time. There is a very persistent -EPO showing up this run.

00z Euro is slower for Fri but just not quite enough. 

EDIT: The Sunday/Monday system looks great for OK/AR though.