snowmagnet

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji the better pattern is progressing forward in time... the heat flux from the canada and scandanavian ridges are working in tandem to create the -NAO.  The timing does match with the SSW.  The issue is 1 we've been fooled twice now this winter by this kind of progression.  2, even if this time it's right were at the extreme tail end of when it would even matter wrt snowfall.  So I understand the lack of interest.  I will track till the bitter end.  Why not.  

I read that there was snow, sleet and lighting yesterday in Carroll County! I was thinking it was what should have been the PSU storm.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time.

I’ll be in Edinburgh, Scotland. I’d love to see some snow while I’m there. Anyone have the weeklies for the UK? 

Major disappointment in western Fairfax.  I think we got the snow hole. Less than 1”.   Oh well. It was a fun week of tracking.  
 

53 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

it’s automated

Really? What does it take to up to a warning? More than 5”?

isn’t it time to rely on short- term models rather than Global? Back in 2014 and 2015, I remember a lot of times that the global models started backing off and then we still over-performed on many of these type of storms. It 

This is bullish for CWG.

42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Suffice it to say, this ain't happening. But I think 3 to 5 is possible for us immediate metro folks? 

This is 2024. We are on a roll. I think we can do 4-6.  

44 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

HRRR and RAP give me pause with the northward look. I hope we do not see this slip too far north!

 

 

 

I’ve been worried about that too 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Tell LWX to give me my goddamn warning or there WILL be consequences. 

Thank you! 

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest from LWX. Looks like they generally increased totals.

I just saw the WWA. I’m betting an upgrade to a warning at some point.  

How quickly will we warm up tomorrow? I don’t want it melt!!!

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Technically this one isn't a clipper. It a northern stream shortwave from the Pac. We had some of these in 2014 and 2015 when the tpv acted as a block. They can carry much more juice than a clipper diving from the polar regions.  Stripes are narrow but pretty juicy. Should be a fun storm 

Oh thanks for clarifying! Good to know. 

This little clipper that was headed north of us originally, looks to be the best so far this season for a forum-wide event. I remember one clipper in the past 10 years where we got about 6-8” in Fairfax, but we were just expecting a few.  Hopefully our 3rd over-performer this year! 

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We root for the RGEM/NAM....Bmore roots for the ICON.    You know what I'm rooting for?  Forum Peace.  

The Euro was the best, I believe. 

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The very beginning of March doesn't look too promising. Roll that pattern forward and there may be another chance in the 7-15th window.

One of the best March storms was the St. Pattys Day one. We had about 13 inches here. Can’t remember the year…

38 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We've learned our lesson. The new base state, Hadley influence and MJO implications of the Hadley influence is what has taught us to sharply temper our expectations. I no longer believe in snow shellackings for the DMV. Those days are permanently over. I do not believe that will ever happen again in our lifetimes, I turn my affections to places like Mammoth Lakes, Palisades Tahoe and Alta, Utah. Those places DO get truly life threatening amounts of snows and also can get blasted by hurricane force gusts! The Hadley, the new fiery base state, and MJO have absolutely NO bearing whatsoever on all of the incredible snows the mighty Sierra will get, especially when atmospheric rivers come to call. Those places average at least 400 inches a season, often much much more. The East Coast is DONE with big snows, except places like Maine and the NEK Regions. They can still get shellacked by snow. Washington should crave for 2-6 inches and start referring to those amounts as HECS, even low-end BECS. This is our new normal.

I still pull for the Mid Atlantic to get snow but today I am far more realistic. We won't get comma heads. We wont get shellacked. That's for places like Boston. We will get our 2-4 inch, maybe 6 inch amounts in the cities and DDweather, PSU and other places up in north central MD will see 8-16 inch amounts, because they have latitude, elevation and better luck than do places like Cleveland Park in NW DC. People like DD and PSU have a decent probability of getting shellacked with say 18 inches than the metroplexes ever will in 100-200 years given the new base state. Unless the AMOC stops. Then it's a whole new ballgame. Places like Allegheny Front will always get upslope snows. They are a special case even with the new base state.

OMG we lost Jebman!  You have been our forever optimist! 
 

I will continue to believe in shellacking for the MidAtlantic. If not this year, but one year we will get lucky. If not, I’ll retire in 5 years and move to PA. 

Isn’t there a climate/is it going to snow again thread? If not, we need one.  
 

So PD 3 postponed again? 

I don’t understand why the national weather service didn’t give us at least a hazardous outlook warning for slick roads. 

My husband just called and said the side roads are really really slick in Fairfax and kids are just getting on the bus

Fairfax area has moderate fat flakes. Flipped about 20 minutes ago between 35-36 degrees. 

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

1/25/2000 would be nice 

Yup.  That's the one I keep thinking about.

Just now, Deck Pic said:

0z RAP/HRRR has DCA falling to 34 during the snow.  Huge bust potential here, but +SN at 33 would accumulate

It can snow above 32.  I remember a storm in late January 2000 when I watched a steady (surprise) snow storm that was supposed to be rain. My husband was taking friends to the airport in Baltimore and it was bad. It was close to 40 degrees the whole time.  

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I mean, the primary low is already down to 995mb in the TN valley. Impressive at this stage. That transfer is gonna have a 987 over OCMD

If only it could tuck a bit south of there...

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I was 1000% sure the extra data would make things worse. Very pleasant surprise.

If DCA gets 1” out of this we’re a snow town. IDGAF what’s going on in the LR thread

So do all of these evening runs now have extra data from the hurricane hunters?