Scarlet Pimpernel

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormybe careful of that gfs storm. It’s alone. And frankly I’m not even rooting for it because it gets to that solution because it never develops the nao block and swings a NS wave over is which opens the door to that stj wave to come north. But it’s a weird convoluted evolution with high bust potential and if that general progression is correct that’s our only shot as it totally breaks down the pattern after. No thanks. Give me the all other guidance solution. Maybe it means no PD storm but it leads to a long extends window of opportunity not just a low probability one off. 

I did look some at the ops GFS progression around the possible PD event and beyond, and yeah, looks like it tries to just break down the flow soon after.  Not totally sure why.  I don't know how much of that would necessarily "have" to occur if the PD storm happens (if that makes sense), or if the ops GFS has just tended to flip the flow into a "meh" pattern in its extended forecast projections.  Obviously, there's some connection which you mention, i.e., this leads to that which results in the GFS showing whatever pattern later on.  I've noticed a few times that the ops GFS turns the 500-mb flow rather bland in the longer range, but that could be due to just being an ops at long range.

3 hours ago, Yeoman said:

I think that was actually Zwyts.. regardless, a tremendous call, indeed!

Thanks...yeah, Zwyts sounds correct and familiar from that time.  I thought he changed his name to @Deck Pic though...not sure.  At any rate, I definitely recall his comments about the March 2015 event.

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Probably not given the pattern, but we can absolutely get cold smoke this late in the season. Seen a lot of cold smoke snows in March of late.

The complaints about "too warm leading in!" for the potential PD-3 event around here are ridiculous.  First, it's 200+ hours out!  Second (if you really want to get into the details!), the temperatures literally crash as the storm begins and it remains quite cold for a couple of days after.  The same temperature depiction was shown for 00Z and 06Z, when everyone was ga-ga over this.  Again, it's 200+ hours out, but the overall hints for this general time period have been discussed at length.

And your comment about cold smoke in March...spot on!  The one I remember best was March 5, 2015.  That featured a front that went through early in the morning followed by rapid cooling, as a wave moved up the front and gave us that storm.  In fact, I recall @Deck Pic (I think it was him?) very early that morning saying watch how many people freak out because it wouldn't be snowing yet when they woke up, when the event wouldn't really start until mid-morning.  And sure enough, people freaked out because it was still wet but no snow falling...even as the damned storm was right on our doorstep (and it began snowing shortly after)!

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think @psuhoffman mentioned earlier that we're gonna need a full phase in order for it to work, and that the stj can't do it alone to break through the suppressive flow. And as we see even in this fantasy run...nice juicy wave (so. Much. Juice)...south! Even though it's a fantasy run that still hurts the feelings, lol

Maybe it was something soon after that, the thing that ended right at 384h, where PSU and others said it was an absolutely near-perfect setup, etc., but that the GFS "found" the one way to make it fail!

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Heck...I don't have ANY social life and I'd like to think I'm a lot better mentally about snow than I was 15 years ago. I'm also a lot more cynical (see my snow contest guess(es)) 

Cynicism comes with age and experience, my friend...embrace it!!!  Some people just call it "realism!"  LOL!!! 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That was an excellent post dude. 

Agree, it most definitely was.

Anything on the potential development of the system around the 19th?  The 12Z GFS was oh-so-close but not quite there for us.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Again, I don’t have high expectations and I’m not vested but this is a sleeper/bonus and I’m here for it. I mean technically we are tracking something before the good times so that’s a plus. 

Very true...bonus for sure.  Just a couple of days ago, this was essentially not worth the time.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

850 zero line looks OK, but man, that surface freezing line!  Still, not that bad a place to be at this point for an event that's kind of a "bonus".

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is a literal thread the needle with wave timing. We need one piece of NS energy scooting out in front phasing into the 50-50 low to flatten the flow up top, then the southern shortwave to move east just behind, and then to keep it from sliding harmlessly eastward off the coast to our south we need the next piece of NS energy to capture it just as it approaches the coast to induce a strong low just to our southeast with plenty of lift/ dynamical cooling, but not a full phase and not too soon.. 

So basically...like the Ghostbusters car...it needs everything!

11 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Like I'm mostly here to have fun.  I like bring some joy/laughter here among us crazy ass people obsessed with frozen water crystals.  We're all trollable.  I love troll...some people can take it.  Some...can't.  Oh well.   But I shall let no other interloper from another forum tease my people.  It's family in here and only we can troll/tease each other.  I've gone after the so called leaders of the cult of personality and they seem to be the ones to take it in all the fun and games that it's supposed to be.

Our other problem is just impatience.  People are desperate and all of this is frustrating.  But hasn't it always been this way?  Look, if we're not tracking something by the 17th, I'll probably end up in here leading the pack with pitchforks and torches.

Nobody from another forum is allowed to mess with or troll us!!

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Would that not be a good thing? That more resembles the 0z gfs does it not?

I'd think it should be?  Wouldn't we want that NS trough to swing out just ahead to allow for some confluent flow and colder air to seep in, as the SS wave approaches?  I didn't see all the details, but I take it the 00Z GFS kind of tried to do that, not quite but still somehow offered a snowy solution.

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

There is weak support, not miserable about it.  Just stating facts.  Don't read my posts if you find them a waste of your time.  I find the personal attacks on this forum ridiculous.  If you need 50 inches of snow a year, you live in the wrong location.  Chances of another 2010 in the next 50 years is slim to none.  I don't expect it to happen again in my lifetime (back to back blizzards totaling 50 plus inches in a week's time).  

 

For what it's worth, I pretty much agree with what you said, and you didn't say it in such a way as to be an overt deb.

As for the person (ahem...Ji) that you replied to...and I may get hammered for saying this, but who cares.  I find it incredibly rich and ironic that someone who is arguably one of the worst and most immature weenieish posters on this site would call out others for the content of their posts!  Sorry but yeah, I went there.  So be it.

46 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

@Maestrobjwa - 

Have never had an issue with you and I try really hard not to judge people's style and such. But I will say that I, for one do appreciate that over the last year or two you truly seem to have been trying to learn concepts and stuff. 

The biggest advice I will give you - and in no part of this post do I mean any malice or ill will - is that like you said in the other thread...weather is weather - we can't really change it or do anything about it. Weather doesn't care if you're due. Weather doesn't care if you "deserve" snow. Weather doesn't care if you got screwed by 50 snowstorms and are depressed. 

The best advice that I got when I started on Eastern in the 2000s was that you don't have to reply to every post or topic or concept. It's okay to just read. The more you post is not going to trigger the butterfly effect to "will" a snowstorm closer. 

It is OK to just let other folks carry the thread. I too get REALLY bummed out when we miss snowstorms. You'll notice that I largely go silent in the winter here - but I certainly am in here DAILY and quietly obsessing about the snow potential. I've gotten better over the years - but I will admit I in fact do get bummed when stuff doesn't work out. 

But I found a long time ago that the more I posted, the worse my "need" to have snow to be happy got. You have some options here - and it's not even a complete list. 

- Try new hobbies - I've been spotting foxes and animals in my backyard lately and it's been a blast with trailcams and stuff. Way higher success rate than snow chasing too! I also picked up plane spotting in the past few years. Again, not saying THOSE specifically, but they are both more redeeming a lot of times than weather tracking. 

- Get into more diverse weather. We fail a ton at summer/spring severe weather too...but at least by making it more flexible as to the type of weather that interests me - it's not just snow. 

- CHASE the snow if you have the means to do so. I know we can't all pack up like Bob Chill and go to multiple locations. But if you have the means, do it. 

We are unfortunately warming. We don't need to over that. But if you are solely attached to big snow that you "deserve" you're going to have deep depression in the years to come I fear. Gotta take the wins we get and hope for the best. No amount of posting or hand wringing is going to change what Mother Nature wants to do. 

But I want to reiterate - I truly appreciate that you've been trying to learn and improve. 

@Kmlwx, this is an EXCELLENT post, I couldn't have said it any better than you have...thank you!  I'm more or less the same.  Yeah, I'll post in here, add some (hopefully!) useful input or at least humor when appropriate.  But I also many times just "lurk" and read what the experts say.  Or I'll post observations during an event.  You mentioned hobbies...photography has become one of my biggest over the past 10+ years, and I really like it, no matter the weather.  I'm always finding that my eye catches something interesting and I'll think "ohhh, I need to get a shot of that!" or whatever (and if only I had the correct lens attached at the right time, too!!  Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't!).  And I certainly will take plenty of snow photos during events, if anything to document them.  But honestly, spring and fall around here offer some of the best photography opportunities, with things blooming in the spring or the changing leaves in the fall...or birds, any time of the year.  This past November when the Japanese maples over in the Audubon nature center nearby me busted out in all their amazing red, orange, and yellow color...I was beside myself walking around taking any shot I could (I felt almost like the character Po, in "Kung Fu Panda", when he was in the hall of warriors museum going berserk at all the artifacts!).

Foxes...funny you mention that!  I recently (last few years or so) have seen more encroaching on what are nominally populated areas.  In fact, a few years back I was out taking photos during some snow event and saw a fox coming sort of toward me.  At first I thought, "who has their dog running around here without a leash???" then realized it was a fox!  It just ran on right past me (within a few feet or so), paying no heed of my presence, kind of scared me to be honest.  I didn't have a chance to get my camera out from under my coat to grab a shot of him, but it was pretty neat (if scary!).

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's a lot of cold HP lol

Yeah...now gimme a nice wave underneath that and some good moisture overrunning, please!!

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS

...Dafuq just happened????!!!!  I wasn't even paying much attention and then I see this, LOL!!!  PSU slightly fringed, right where we want it! 

ETA:  Yeah, the thermals look whacked-out and meh...but whatever!  Interesting it keeps the low south of us.  I'm guessing that low in southern Canada north of the Great Lakes kinda messes things up.

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I won't do that anymore. Didn't realize it would set all this off. I mean other people have mentioned it occasionally throughout the winter, so I didn't think it was out of bounds. It's been a lot of "best shot in 8 years" (and it is)...but I guess I shouldn't have said what has kinda been informing my view of needing this winter to work. But looking too far into what may or may not happen in the future is an issue I have in general. I'm like that with stuff and I have to work on it.

.......Seems no matter how hard I try I can never get it right in here. Carry on, folks. Sorry for the distraction.

Well, as the great Yogi Berra said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."  He would have made a great meteorologist, if he took a different career path!! 

And we don't "need" this winter to "work", whatever that exactly means.  I get where you're coming from, the past several years have been rough for anyone who loves snow, with a few exceptions on some events.  That said, the longer range ensembles and weeklies have been consistently showing what is one of the best patterns we could ask for, according to @psuhoffman one that only occurs every decade or whatever.  And every major model has been in lock-step with the same exact look for some time, it's remarkable.  Let's just hope we can maximize what we can out of that, whatever we get.  It's not a "guarantee" (I know you know this already), but just try to focus on tracking individual events if and when they start appearing as we get into ops range more.  Try not to put this so much into the larger context and worrying about things like that.  Take what we get for what it is, whether we get.  I feel like I'm going all @Bob Chill zen-meister here, but you get the idea.  Personally, I just cannot get all worked up if we don't get X inches of snow because the long term trends, etc.  I'd be liable to not enjoy a HECS or a couple of really good MECS events if I worried too much about that!

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Your only real knowledge is parroting what other people say, which isn't all that uncommon among folks on this board (me included), but you so often interpret this information incorrectly.

Please stop shitting up the thread with your worries about next year - we have 4-6 weeks of potential coming up to end the season. Why don't we just focus on that?

Replying to this in Banter so that I don't end up cluttering things, LOL!!  Anyhow, I agree with you.  As you say, parroting things that someone else passed along is fine to an extent (I do it too!).  But one shouldn't try to make it sound like they're all-knowing about what they are repeating.  And, one should always credit the person/people who made whatever comment and assessment, if you know...or at least mention generically that some others stated such-and-such.  Guess it's the scientist in me, I've been ingrained (rightfully so!) with giving credit where appropriate and not to come off like you originated it if you didn't.  Even on something relatively minor like a weather forum.

And yeah...I don't give two sh*ts about next winter right at this point.  Sure, it is likely to be a Nina according to several others who've commented on that in here, and will (from what I understand) be pretty blah.  OK, fine.  But it's like 10+ months away for God's sake!  Can't we just take this winter for what it is, hope we score something really good in this upcoming pattern, and worry about next winter another time?  And as I mentioned in the main medium range thread, even in a crap year we can still manage to luck into something...that's far from out of the realm of possibility.  I somehow doubt it will be wall-to-wall suckiness with nothing.  Again, though, even if it is...why freak out about that now?  I guess I've gotten a bit more "zen" after last year, which quite literally WAS wall-to-wall suckiness with zip to even track or get interested in.

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out.

Let's not worry about next winter or cancel it just yet.  Sure, maybe it will be a sh*t winter...but what happens if we have one week in, say, January and score a lucky 12"+ event?  I wouldn't complain so much, even if the rest of the season sucks.  We rely on a lot of luck in these parts and have gotten such events in crappy seasons before.

ETA:  I don't remember a huge amount of winter 2005-06, other than it sucked for the most part.  But mid-February 2006 we got that one great event, it wasn't as big down this way (much bigger up toward NJ, etc.), but it was still great.  It was warm before that and like 70 degrees a few days after.  We got one good period, that's all it took, to get at least something.

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What is so magic about breaking 30? Who cares about predictions- just someone's opinion. Lets say the lowlands get an 8" event, a 10" event, and maybe another 3 with a minor or mixed event over the next 4-5 weeks. Would that meet your "bar" for a good winter?

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Put this way. If it can snow significantly in March like 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022 (and multiple years pre-2014 notwithstanding), then it almost certainly snow big enough to surpass climo by a big margin in late Feb through the first week of March. 

Exactly these points.  I'll add that there's nothing "significant" about apparently not getting a MECS/HECS the last week or so of February.  Any more than it was "significant" that we previously didn't have one the 3rd week of January, and there was similar talk at that time in 2016 I recall.  We're talking a small sample of "big storms" here anyhow, and a discrete one week period.  Not like it can't snow at that time.  Trying to draw inference about "that week" is a bit much, it's not some voodoo magic (Jobu!!) that keeps us from such an event at that particular time.

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

How long was the big block in place b4 the first Feb storm in 2010? We were cold and dry for a while before the late Jan storm. I remember the big relax after Dec 19th but when it came back it never left until late Feb. 

Good to see you posting as always, Bob!

Anyhow to your question I'll go by what I remember from 2009-2010.  There was of course the big storm on Dec. 18-19, a couple of weeks after our "Dec. 5 snow" (that seemed to be a thing).  We then got washed out the rest of the month more or less.  January 2010 I recall starting off cold with some clipper-type system, before we had a thaw for much of the month (but not a torch per se).  I don't know when exactly that big round of blocking came back, but in the week or so leading up to the two February HECS events, we did have the cold blast and the 6" cold powder on Jan. 30 (that storm inched north after looking like nothing here)...then an event on Groundhog Day (5" in my yard), but by then everyone was focused on the big one that occurred a few days later.  So I don't know how dry it was specifically (though I have some sense Jan. 2010 was dryish overall??); we did kind of luck out with Jan. 30, that could just as easily have been "cold and dry" (and it looked like it for awhile).  But at least it shows how we could still score a neat event even in something that nominally looked suppressed.

39 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Ok which one of you weenies lives in my hood? Saw this dude prepping his grass for our upcoming BECS period. 

Easier to just place Astroturf out there, it stays short so that you're guaranteed total grass coverage when it snows! 

5 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

ENOUGH.

Stock up now. Stop whining...and get a good load of dynamite.

 

Now THAT would be quite the challenge for @Jebman and his famed, trusty shovel!  I bet those are his footprints around that house, scoping out the best way to begin digging out!! 

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger.

Some of these comments (especially by those who should know better) are getting to be a real snooze-fest in this thread.  Put that crap in Banter or the Panic Room.  Sure, the "big snow" forecasts might not materialize in reality but can't we just let things evolve and see where things go?  Rather than go "OMG, if we don't get X number of inches this year everything is doomed for years!"  Even if we get a couple of solid storms and/or a HECS-level event.

38 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m still intrigued by this period. We normally don’t score during the first wave of a pattern change but I do think if the shortwaves progress correctly we could time something.


.

True.  Though the period around the 18-19th would not actually be the first wave?  Unless I misinterpret what you mean.  Seems that around the 14th would be the so-called "first wave chance" which would be pretty borderline at best around these parts, though some others may score something from that.

@psuhoffman posting 20 day Euro control snow maps in the medium range thread, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria, and it's Groundhog Day!