Scarlet Pimpernel

Seems like we need Gordon Ramsay to eliminate people from Hell's Kitchen in here...

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Gentlemen? You got the wrong forum bro

Very loose interpretation of the word!  Perhaps that can be edited to have him saying "...prepared to go down like true weenies!"

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He’s done. Northarlington101 just sat there in his foxhole, staring into empty space, firearm by his feet as the German artillery explodes around him.  Winterwxlvr is there, telling him to snap out of it to no avail.  Winterwxlvr is taking on that entire German artillery unit single handedly. 

We need our version of General Patton to whip these soldiers into shape!  Or General McAuliffe, saying "NUTS!" to the Germans asking him to surrender at Bastogne.

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Punchy af around here.  We need a snowstorm like yesterday. I was gonna give up but fuck it, as long as @WinterWxLuvris in I’m in.  

2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I just KNEW Dr Jebman Seuss was gonna come along lmfao

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"Oh the Places You'll Jebwalk!"

All we need now is Storm 1 and Storm 2!!

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

We are getting REALLY DESPERATE when we resort to Dr Seuss.

The snow did not fall.
The models had nothing good to say.
So we sat in the house
All that cold, cold, wet Presidents' Day.

I sat there with a @psuhoffman tome,
We sat there, us two.
And I said, "how I wish
There was something we could do!"

Too warm at 850.
And surface temps did not fall.
So we sat in the house.
We did nothing at all.

So all we could do was take the blinds, and
Shit!
Shit!
Shit!
Shit!
And we did not like it.
Not one little bit.

And then a shovel went BUMP!
How that bump made us jump!
We looked!
Then we saw him step in on the mat!
We looked!
And we saw him!
The @Jebman in the hat!

And he said to us,
"Why do you shit the blinds like that?"
I know it is wet
And it's half through Feb-rary.
But fear not, we'll get our snow
So don't commit hari-kari!"

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'll go file the adoption papers with his agency. I'm confident it will be granted... @Ji! Consultation requested 

You'll have to await the Digital Blue society's final approval.  Until there's a lot of consistent digital blue, no go!

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There’s my baby 

4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Ty! Seems like if things are still this volatile from run to run things can still pan out.

I'd let others more knowledgeable chime in, but that was just my back-of-the-envelope thought and assessment.  And yeah, it's looking at the ops GFS at 240 hours.  I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in that...being an ops run at that time range, plus, well, the GFS.  But taken in isolation, I don't care for that flow as it's shown.

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Haha see above. @psuhoffmanor someone knowledgeable like to weigh in?

OK, I'm not @psuhoffman and don't play him on TV...and yeah my previous comment was meant as snarky humor.  But in all seriousness, just giving a cursory glance at the 500-mb flow around that time, it seems to me that the GFS just lifts everything more.  The PV seems to get shunted north or elongated a bit, with little confluent flow; rather than forming a 50/50 type low it sits way up there in northeast Canada.  We end up with flow coming right off the Pacific.  At least according to the GFS ops.  Here's one snapshot:

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Haha so you done know either

Change the physical properties of water so that it freezes at like 45 degrees???

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd daresay this was close...but more experienced minds can weigh seeing as I'm still a but H5 illiterate 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Obviously some scatter still, but 12z GEFS looks fairly bullish for the psu storm

That's the one around the 23-24th?

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I know this PD3 wave will likely be suppressed, but damn, the look of that storm brewing in the plains on all the globals around D7 gets my loins movin’…

Suppressed pants-tent, as it were! 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think most of that snow was from the Feb 14 wave on that run. 

Also, notice it's the extended ensemble CONTROL member, not a mean.  So it's even subtly deceptive in that regard.

37 minutes ago, Ji said:

I prefer the FAKE punt by FSU (vs. Auburn in the 2014 BCS game), when they came back from a 21-3 deficit and went on to win...

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there's the 20-21st and another wave around the 24th behind it

That wave around the 24th has been one that many here have honed in on as the "better" opportunity, I believe?  Though don't rule out something just before that either (PD or just after).

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

The Lord has to make it snow on Presidents Day weekend. Can you imagine getting a big storm like one day after Presidents day when we have been waiting years for PD3?

And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!?

Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!!   (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!)

Just now, stormtracker said:

I can’t compare shit, but I’m posting from the future.  The money frames are almost in reach

Do you say FOLKS in the future? 

5 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm convinced Brooklyn is 15 yrs. old.  

I don't know about that but I do know for sure there are adults on this board who act like they're 15 years old (or younger!)!!

3 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Lol Chuck

Shroomchaser??? 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Fucking human pendulums up in here.  I'm dizzy.

Yup, it's almost hypnotic!!! 

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Can't trust people who change their name...

Touche! 

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

 

Weve been chasing 7+ days since  mid December. We got an excellent run for 7 -8 days over two weeks ago.

 Archaic   models and this new environment we are in, and weather forecasting is rapidly falling   behind all other sciences.

Now plenty will tell me how I Should Be Looking at it but I live in reality.  This has been a great hobby and I continue to do the recordings and we are in many cities now.  But this model chasing fantasy has worn out. I love  obs threads in situation but frankly all the rest of it is just myriad and myriad of ever changing examples of what might could possibly happen .That creates nothing positive for me anymore. Hitting one out of every ten targets is frustration and that’s not a hobby 

see you again when snow is in reality on the way or occurring 

I'm sorry, I've read your comments on this issue for some time and just have to go into a bit of a rant here, because I deal with numerical models myself to some extent...

This has to be one of the most ignorant takes on "models" I've ever seen.  I get that you're not overly fond of numerical weather models, ensembles, etc., as I've seen you say on more than one occasion essentially that "all they do is show you every possible outcome to cover all bases..,." or whatever (and I strongly disagree with that sentiment).  Or at the least you sure leave that impression.  Whatever, and to each their own, but I think this all shows a serious lack of understanding on how modeling systems work and how they should be used/interpreted, and is an insulting slap in the face to the scientists who develop this guidance.  Doesn't matter if some posters in a weather forum like here live and die by every single ops model solution at 200+ hours, which I agree can get annoying.  But that is not a statement on numerical weather prediction itself.  One cannot be serious that weather forecasting has rapidly fallen behind other sciences due to, as you call them, "archaic models."  You cannot seriously believe that our understanding of weather systems now is worse than it was in the early or pre-modeling days.

Perhaps you're right in the end, that you should just show up in the obs threads when a storm actually does occur.  But don't criticize based upon weenieish comments that you read in here and mistake that for what numerical modelers and forecasters believe.

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Imma give it one more cycle, buts almost shit the blinds on this one 

Maybe shit the blinds on this one, but open them up wide for the next one(s) hopefully!!!