Always in Zugzwang

There's a definite pessimistic streak in this thread in the past couple of days. I can totally understand that, looking at the consistently advertised warm-up in the models and ensembles especially after next week. Maybe we'll squeak something in early next week with that one system before things go bad for awhile, but I'm not sold on that yet in terms of the timing and what cold air might be left by then. Late next week and beyond is a stinker to be sure, looks like much of NA gets flooded with Pacific air as the EPO trough plants itself near the West Coast. Hopefully, that won't be a prolonged pattern, but that remains to be seen. I'm still keeping optimism that we'll have more chances toward the end of the month and in February, but as some have alluded to, if we end up losing 2-3 weeks "waiting" and suddenly it's nearly mid-February, that window gets small in a hurry. I'd wager the temperatures we've experienced since the Holidays and through this upcoming weekend are the coldest we'll see for the entire season; I doubt we see that level again, at least not consistently. But we don't need skin-chafing cold to get good snow.

Ji already canceled it!

So is my liver these days!

Forget snow. There's nearly 2" salt on the roads near me right now. Can't even see the lane markers, it's become so ingrained in the pavement...it's damn near treacherous! Blowing salt, too, reducing the visibility!

Heh! Maybe we'll be tracking a bit more than originally thought as we get toward mid-month! I honestly haven't looked much at the medium range recently, but the potential ice Monday certainly bears watching. This event you show from the GFS the following Saturday...I haven't checked the upper levels, but offhand it appears that nice 1043 high is moving out ahead of the low. But that's getting into la-la land, and it beats looking at a torch.

Well, so this now looks a bit more interesting! Like I said before, regardless of snow amount, it sure looks like that wind later tomorrow and tomorrow night will feel quite brutal outside as it gets colder.

Yeah, that kooky run or two of the Euro was interesting while it was there! And it wasn't for this upcoming event, but the GFS did give us that ridiculous 36-hour (or whatever it was) non-stop snow event for the period right after Christmas in one run! That's a filet mignon with lobster, with a caviar appetizer and whatever fancy French dessert afterward (plus some Veuve Cliquot champagne to top it off)! So we're down to mac and cheese now, or perhaps stale bread crumbs! I'll pass on the PBR, thank you! Anyhow, on topic, it is true that the GFS never really was overly enthusiastic in this area for the Thursday event. Maybe a run or two looked kind of good several days back, I can't recall. But it's been adamant that it won't be much here. That said, Thursday sure looks like it could be bitter with brisk winds and cold temperatures, regardless of anything else! More chapped skin, I guess...humidifiers continue to work overtime.

Regardless of any snow, or no snow, those winds look awfully brisk. Could be a brutally cold day just with that it seems.

Good discussion, showmethesnow. I'm just catching up in here now this morning, so I know this is a couple or so hours old. But in looking back a couple of pages, those trends last night on the Euro that you point out are clear...and oh-so-close, compared to yesterday. From what I've read/seen, the 06Z GFS hinted at the same. At least something to keep the interest heading into the New Year.

Light coating of snow here this morning. Maybe around a couple tenths of an inch (just guesstimating by looking)? Everything is covered, so despite the small amount it's very pretty at least.

If you're referring to Boxing Day 2010, it wasn't quite like that. Maybe out in time models showed a good hit for us, but as it got within a few or so days, I recall it was getting squashed too far south...similar to the event late this upcoming week. Then around Christmas Eve, a couple runs of the GFS put us back into some good snow and yes, we even got a warning out of it. But it was not clear, there was still a lot of model discrepancy for this area even 36 hours before game time (GFS I think was nearly on its own bringing back snow here). We all know then what happened...it quickly lurched back into almost nothing for us the next day.

My cynical side says it's bull-something.

You do know the definition of insanity, I presume?

Yeah, was just checking out the 2-m temperatures. Well into the teens through what would be the heavy stuff. Now, if this can only not go the way of the dodo, like this upcoming Friday, we'll be good, LOL! In all seriousness, the 28-30 and 31-Jan 1 period were both "highlighted" as possibilities. Models had varied as to which system to key in on for us. Seem to recall a couple days ago the Euro was aiming NYE/NYD, even as the GFS was still (at that time) hitting us with late this upcoming week.

Yup...and 180 is even more so in terms of close to that kind of phase. Nice!

Can definitely see the NS energy "pulling back" more to the west to dig in compared to the past two cycles.

Yes, indeed. I believe sometime earlier you mentioned that this sort of morphed from a southern stream/overrunning kind of situation into more northern stream dominant...not exactly the best way to morph for our purposes! Unfortunately, this is not the same kind of "easy" (relatively) setup like, say, Jan. 2016 when we knew something major was coming, it was just the precise details that weren't 100% known. As far as I recall, that storm and some other similar ones didn't just "disappear" on the GFS or get sheared into oblivion for at least awhile. It stuck around. But as I said, different set-up for those than the current situation.

Somehow, I am not shocked...

Same to you, have a great Holiday! This is a great community, despite some disagreements and other stuff that can go on at times. I am sure I speak for many others, but your input here is valuable and I always have appreciated your level-headed presentation while at the same time keeping an overall reasonable optimistic output on snow chances.

Here's a photo of some Advent candles I took earlier this evening, just for fun!

Ha! Well, the result may be the same! Drambuie is just an excuse to drink Scotch as a liqueur!

Not bad news at all given what we saw today in general. I wonder if they're keying on different short waves (timing) to accomplish that...or if that's the effect of a couple or three total.

Sounds tasty! Now I feel like tapping into the Drambuie I have in the cabinet, or perhaps a single malt!

There was some question of when we last had 2 weeks straight of BN temps in the DC area. Not sure if it was mentioned, but Feb. 2015 came close (looking just at DCA, on LWX's climate summary). Nearly every day was below normal to way below normal for about the last 20 days of the month. I saw a day with a zero (right on average) and +3 during that time frame to "interrupt" an otherwise straight-up below the mean period and bitterly cold month in general. First 8 days had some warm days mixed with cooler ones. Feb. 2007 I think was similar, but don't have the dailies to check...the monthly departure for both Feb. 2007 and 2015 was on the order of -8.5 (with 2015 being a bit colder than 2007).

Happy Christmas, everyone!!