MAG5035

2 hours ago, canderson said:

... back to the weather.

At a quick glance it appears the 12z models lost basically every snowmaker potential for the next week. Cutters but I don't see any cold air to help it not rain. 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

384 hr GEFS looks great. 

what a year. 

Iso stay around. We need you. 

Itll get better next year. 

Until we lessen the influence of that western trough we're gonna be vulnerable to cutters or be very close to the boundary in the absence of any NAO blocking to counter the SE ridging. The amount of snow the Cascades and Sierras have seen as well as all the way down in elevation to Seattle would serve as enough of an example on it's own of the kind of anomalous trough over that region. That stretches down to Hawaii, where a few days ago Maui had snow down to around 6k feet in elevation (just about the 850mb level). Snow in Hawaii isn't a crazy thing...at the higher peaks. Down to 6k feet in elevation?? That might be about the lowest it's ever been recorded there. If we didn't have the nice Pac ridge near and into the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska to point the airmass source region from Canada, we'd probably be talking the type of warm weather stretches we've seen in the last 2 Februarys. But that's been how this winter has gone since about December. The cold air availability has been there, the storm track has not been. 

And even with all that in mind, our subforum has probably been faring the best overall in the winter weather department when you compare to the DC/Philly/NYC/and SNE regions. I know it seems like Boston and surrounding towns have had snowy winters about as much as Tom Brady makes the super bowl the past however many years but you know where KBOS is to date with snow? 4.7". And the 95 corridor down towards NYC hasn't really fared any better. At least half of us in here had about that much from just the last storm that ultimately cut to Michigan. So it could be worse haha. Most of our regular climo stations in C-PA can still get to average on a couple more half decent events. 

The NAM hasn't seemed enthused with the weekend threat attm, being way south and not much in the way of a system. SREFs looked like they had some members showing snow but not a really strong signal. Not quite a short term thing yet though, so the usual disclaimers about the NAM/SREF applies. 

I still think this system stays largely south but may end up having something for our southern tier. 

It eventually did rain here for a little while earlier this evening. Totals ended up being the numbers I posted earlier. Not too much in the way of ice accrual occurred except a bit on some of the slushier back roads. Didn't really do anything to what was already an insanely dense pack with all the sleet that fell. Front has went through a bit ago and it's back to snowing here with winds increasing. 

Onward to our next potential events. This system at the end of the week has turned into pretty much a frontal passage with not much in the way of precip associated with it. That resets the boundary and we have the next potential system of snowy consequence following for the weekend (Sat). That one looks south, we may end up throwing the Mid-Atlantic a bone with that one. Although, the 0z Euro leaves some leeway for a bit of snow to the far southern tier of PA and the Canadian is blazing a path way north with precip and snow for mason-dixon line north in most of PA. Immediately following in the active storm pattern is another system on the fabled P-Day holiday. GFS/Euro have a low just south of PA right now with varying results. 0z Euro doesn't have much precip where it would support snow, having a light swath of snowfall running the I-80 corridor. GFS had a good bit more precip to offer. 

Def lots of chances in this pattern coming up. If we lessen the western trough's influence and stay on the right side of the gradient we could go on a run. The 0z Euro shows how things could be uncooperative and us on the wrong side of the gradient, dumping another huge trough into the western US, which raises eastern heights D8-10. Not saying it's right, just pointing it out. The MJO should provide a positive influence soon if it doesn't screw around in P7 and actually traverses right into 8. 

Current obs: All sleet continues, light to moderate. Temp 33ºF. 

Last 24 hours: 3.7" snow, 1.9" sleet

Snow depth: 6"

Event total from Late Sunday afternoon: 6.5"

Most of the hour and a half I was outside snow blowing it was a light to moderate snow falling. The heavier precip has moved back in and it is now dumping sleet. The running total on the "sleetfall" is now up to 1.5". This has essentially been an all frozen event here, long after it was supposed to be.  

Dominant p-type has switched back over to light snow for now, even with the lull in precip. 

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Went out and cleaned up during the dryslot moment. I’ll call this 4.5” snow and .3” sleet. Really nice storm -would’ve been perfect had we been able to hang on to the cold air in the atmosphere through noon. 

Like MAG said the ENE wind is chilly!

Not too bad for a lakes cutter haha. 

Clearing this off the driveway is going to be a B. It’s still sleeting too.

10 minutes ago, Lebrecker said:

Last nights Forecast 4"-7" snow busts badly in poconos. First time this year the forecast wasn't spot on.   Coating of snow, followed by light freezing rain. 23 degrees  northern carbon county. 

28 inches of snow for year. 

I remember mentioning yesterday about models having a weakness in QPF up in the Binghamton region of the NY southern tier down into NE PA. I know the 12z Euro yesterday barely got to 0.5" or so QPF for the whole thing and it was showing up on the HRRR too. Guess that must have come to fruition. Only a coating? Wow

I was surprised to see an actual burst of snow with the last shot of heavier precip that came through about 20 min ago. Transition happened a bit early last night but it's been a sleet storm ever since and little to no zr. Quite a blustery ESE wind as well. I cleared at the changeover and now have 1.3" of sleet to go with the 3.7" of snow with the second round, so 5.9" overall for the whole thing starting Sunday eve. 

Tilt 2 (1.5º) on the CCX radar really showing the mix line creeping up on State College. The warm layer is too high to distinctly see it on the regular 0.5º tilt with how close to the radar it's getting. Looks like the warm tongue is near the 850mb level. P-type predominantly sleet here currently. 

11 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Looked like you had some pretty nice bands come through there about 30 mins ago. Thanks Mag for all the hard work you put in to stay on top of the weather and keeping so many people informed.   

Your quite welcome man.

Sounding the pinger alert. Have cleared off measuring areas at 3.7" for round 2, so we'll see how the wintry mix evolves overnight. It's a pretty fine sleet right now with flakes and snow grains still in there, so it'll probably continue to accumulate. Temps only around 29ºF.

Measuring 3.4" now with round 2 (4.3" storm total) with moderate snow falling. Radar and mPing obs showing mix line closing in however, creeping into SW Blair County. 

43 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Yea they are continuing the warning - likely pushed alerts because they messed up the counties yet again today and had York/Lancaster with a half inch ice instead of Johnstown/Altoona

I don't know why they didn't just bring the whole area up on warnings first thing this morning. It really hasn't been any mystery the last few days about this being a high impact event with both snow and ice thresholds near warning levels and it was evident this morning that the southern tier where it will change over the earliest wasn't really going to have a split 2 round event from last night and todays snowfall. 

Also a weird grouping having Blair/Bedford/Fulton lumped with the Laurel's counties (Cambria and Somerset). Especially Blair County, the HRRR has been steadfast on not even mixing from snow until 6 or 7am in this area and point and click has a complete zr transition by 4am. I don't think I'll get a half inch of ice here, that's probably going to happen on the Laurel's ridges. If the depth of the cold air is enough that the Laurel's have such a high ice potential, it's probable that Blair/Bedford/Fulton is going to have sleet mixing or perhaps a predominant p-type for awhile. Blair Co and Altoona probably should have been lumped with the group of warning counties that has UNV and MDT in it. 

Was out and about the last couple hours. Nice moderate to heavy snow falling and 1.7" new since it started back up late this afternoon (2.6" total). Roads are trashed. 30ºF

Snow has started back up, finally. 

50 minutes ago, irvingtwosmokes said:

Well this could get real nasty for us MAG

PAZ024-025-120130-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190212T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2100Z/
Cambria-Blair-
Including the cities of Johnstown and Altoona
1230 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an
  inch are expected.

* WHERE...Cambria and Blair Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday. Snow will mix with sleet and
  freezing rain later today and become all freezing rain this
  evening and tonight. The temperatures will warm slightly Tuesday
  to change the precipitation to plain rain during the mid
  afternoon.

Yea it looks pretty ugly around these parts. I think the best chance for the 0.5" ice is going to be on the ridge tops, especially the Allegheny front ridgeline that borders Cambria/Blair and Somerset/Bedford. 

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yea pawatch, surprised me...CAD is our bread and butter, yet lower totals than Hburg and environs.

I think QPF could be a reason, best QPF for this system has been in western and southern PA. That bullseye in the central mountains likely is a combination of best QPF vs longest duration of frozen. Conversely, I don't know about the higher totals to the northeast of IPT. Models are showing a weakness in QPF in the BGM region into NE PA. Either way, only talking the difference of a couple inches. I know their daytime discussion was talking about lackluster snow ratios with this too (starting 10:1) as well.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Many locations will have ice by the time it is all over later
Tues, but the impacts due to ice should be less serious over
the NE half of the fcst area due to the snow and sleet first.
Snow does look like it will be the predominant p-type for the NE
through much of the day.

SLRs during the event will decrease as the air gets warmer
aloft and since sleet may occur. SLRs could finish as low as
6:1 with a deep, moist, cold layer under a mid-cloud DGZ. The
soundings do not look like sleet to me, more like a very wet
snow or change then to rain (ZR if the sfcs are still frozen).

The warm air attempts to move northward, but many factors seem
to be conspiring against a decent warm nose aloft over much of
the area tonight. The column does warm (pretty much
isothermally). The snow rates never seem to be very high. It`s a
very gradual precip. Per the latest HREF progs, the highest
chance of 1"+/hr rates would be 00-06Z in the central counties
then 06-14Z in the Nrn/NErn counties.

Impacts to Tues morning commute will be widespread and likely
significant. It could still be messy in the late aftn/early
evening, esp in the northeastern half of the area where precip
will still be going. But, the type of precip during the
preceding hours is key to how much travel conditions will
improve. Half or more of the area could be rain by then, but
the slop which fell before hand could keep it slushy even there.

Maxes will occur very late in the day (perhaps not even until
late evening).

Watching their discussions and products from last night to this afternoon, it seems the day shift is opting impact over splitting hairs on warning criteria. The night crew originally put south central and all LSV in advisories for just about the same thing (bumped up ice in the south central) I kind of agree with the widespread warning zone, most are going to get at least near warning criteria snow IMO, with the ice impacts on top. The ones that don't (Laurels) are going to easily see warning criteria freezing rain. It's a high impacting weather event. Also complicating is the the fact that some of the southern tier has not really had a break in precip while others have had a long lasting lull. York/Lancaster counties were kept in advisories but they have benefitted from the early snows. 

Patiently waiting to get back into the game here, haha. Been about a 14 hour lull. 

0.9" on the ground from the snow earlier in the evening. Cleared off with the lull, which may last for several hours before precip comes back north in earnest late this morning/early afternoon. 

CTP going high end advisories in the south central and LSV counties, 3-5" additional for all with 1-2 tenths ice in the south central (AOO/JST, Bedford, Huntingdon, etc) and 1 tenth for LSV counties. Warning for Somerset for >0.25" ice and for now holding watches for 4-8" and 0.1" ice UNV region and north central.  

0z NAM at 34 hours v. 0z HRRR which went out to 34/36 hours. Depending on the source of the model run, the NAM had both sleet and zr as dominant transitional types. TT had a widespread extended period of sleet across most of the central counties while Accuwx's ptype map has a ton of freezing rain, which the above pivotal weather map seems to be reflecting. 

28ºF and steady light to moderate snow, about a half inch. Roads covered.

Light snow has arrived, 31ºF

Just now, bubbler86 said:

I wold have thought that too but the word on the AFD seems to suggest total of 36 for the LSV the only one I read).

Yea it is kind of confusing, but LSV has an advisory handling tonight's snowfall and you'd need the higher totals from the portion under the winter storm watch to verify WSW criteria. So I think that 3-6" is just from the main portion under the watch.  

The other watch zones they have is:

- Up to 6" and 0.25" ice in the south central (JST/AOO region with Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Somerset, Bedford, Fulton and Franklin counties).

- Up to 6" and a tenth of ice in Perry, Cumberland, Adams (Gettysburg.Carlisle) 

- 4-8" and up to a tenth of ice in the whole north central, UNV, IPT to down as low as Mifflin/Juniata Counties)

I'm guessing this would be in addition to tonight's snowfall.