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WarmNose

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Everything posted by WarmNose

  1. Hoping this doesn't break any posting rules. Looks like Joe B is riding the NAM..
  2. Exactly my thoughts. I85 and points north/west unless we get lucky and somehow don't have to fight rain and 45 degree temperatures at the onset of precipitation
  3. Euro looks great imo. It's always a huge plus when the Euro jumps on board with wintry precip. And I hope Lookout is right about the warm nose being modeled too strong
  4. That LP in 87' looks really close to the SC coast. Curious as to how that produced a snow event for areas south and east of I85? Stronger cold air source west of the Apps? Thanks Grit
  5. Any veterans on here have examples of winter storms where cold air came from west of the Apps where a warm nose wasn't an issue? Thanks
  6. That was my all time favorite winter storm. Several hours of 28 degree cotton balls followed by .25 inch of sleet and freezing rain
  7. Without CAD we are set up for failure every time. If our cold air source is west of the apps, it's a no go
  8. CMC has the warm nose eating right into the southern Greenville county screw zone Climo wins again
  9. This storm is starting to look like a "Buncombe County Schools: Closed" special "Greenville County Schools: 2 hour delay"
  10. If I'm not mistaken It has a lot to do with the topography. As the low spins it's hard to get cold air in fast enough when the cold air source is coming from the north and western side of the apps as opposed to an eastern cold air source damming event
  11. NAM looks atrocious. Less amped system with mostly rain. Wouldn't a less amped system equal more blue than green?
  12. If I remember correctly, last year before our January event the GFS sniffed out our warm nose 24-48 hours in advance. It showed it on the SC GA border sneaking up into the southern part of upstate SC. Edit: it could have been the NAM I don't remember
  13. Didn't catch it, but I'm sure he went with the old "mainly for the mountains of North Carolina" weather statement
  14. I've seen this time and time again. Climo says anywhere north and west of I85 have a chance to see flakes fly. South and east, well, you know the drill. Especially in December. I mean come on, it's a struggle even in mid January.
  15. If I can get a couple splotches of blue on my local radar loop I'll call it a winter. Even if it's just virga
  16. Temps won't be an issue. It will make its own cold air Someone mentioned a Lee side trough? I can remember 7'ish years ago a Lee trough set up here in the upstate and we must have raked in 4-5 inches with temps hovering around 40 degrees. It was ridiculous
  17. Wicked lightning, heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder here in Simpsonville. This Winter has been litty!! Mountain real estate just doubled. RIP snow and cold. Al Gore was right!
  18. Lol at tracking severe WX down here in late January. And even bigger LOL and NE battling freezing rain and mixing issues in what should be a blockbuster Nor'easter on Monday. Smdh
  19. No matter how favorable your winter pattern becomes I will still be here lurking in the shadows. I'm here to crush dreams. sincerely, Warm Nose
  20. "Temps won't be a problem with this storm for a change. Trust me." remember when everyone was harping that little tune 3 or 4 days ago? lol
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