Will (little rock)

What a difference one run makes lol

What a terrible trend

28 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Yeah, those are some high ratios.

Not sure what the math is, but I’d say 15-20:1?

Yeah, looks about right. 16-20 or so

Gonna head to the Missouri boot heel tomorrow for the snow, can’t help myself lol

Well, that wasn’t what I expected 

Through hour 72 of GFS, energy is further south 

Man I’d love to see that low pressure track drop south a little more…

GFS digging a bit more…. Looks a bit better synoptic-wise 

Hard not to get excited after seeing that run 

Worth noting that the nam is initializing quite a bit drier than what the current radar shows.

12z ICON with a decent shift southwest 

1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

18Z HRRR continues to develop many discrete storms ahead of a line. and races that across AR area..from 03z to 09z

 

almost too many

I've noticed that on the last several runs. Quite a few of them

If only 228 hours out was accurate. Crazy 

Just now, John1122 said:

The 39 hour rap is running.  Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well. 

Where do I find this map?

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Big run coming for CMC...C AR / W TN (Memphis) big jump vs 12z

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Oh yeah, im enjoying this trend

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What do you all think about firing up a thread for the Tuesday event?  I don't mind discussing it here either.  Just thinking that it might be thread worthy at this point.

I second that. Been following this thread for weeks but finally logged in. Models definitely have been agreeing on somewhat of an event.

Past this storm, looking waaaaaay out to next weekend, there seems to be some similarities with a system between the FV3, GFS, and CMC. Still far out but still worth watching

Looking out past this storm, the GFS, CMC, and FV3 GFS are showing something possible next weekend

Yeah, would definitely be nice to see a few flakes later today!

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro looks ok for 6 days out for the Jan. 3-5th storm (in that it is still there), but for this run anyway, just not enough cold air outside of elevation for most of TN. For any Arkansas folks who may be around though: https://imgur.com/a/2Xgulse 

lock it in! LOL

Interesting storm possible on Wednesday and Thursday for parts of Central and Southern Arkansas, especially on the last few runs 

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

10:1 FV3 is 10-12 inches from Central Arkansas to the Plateau in a SW to NE orientation. From the Eastern Plateau to Tri its 12 to 16 inches. South of 40, east of Davidson it's 2-5 inches with 6 inch pockets all the way through with totals beginning to climb towards 9 inches near the Smokies and over a foot in the mountains. Take 30-40 percent off these for ratio purposes.

Wow if that happened, that would really be amazing

Just now, tramadoc said:

Ban hammer incoming in 3... 2... 1...


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That was quick, nicely done mods lol

4 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I've been analyzing the Euro runs for a couple days now, here is my findings from last night in regards to how the Tulsa metro is affected.

 

10 members show 0-2 inches of snow

6 near misses or right on the steep snow gradient

34 members show heavy snow(I'm defining "heavy" as 4+ inches)

 

 

20% little to nothing

12% near misses or right on the steep snow gradient

68% Winter storm warning criteria

 

So there has definitely been a trend, each run of the Euro is putting more and more members with a large swath of Oklahoma getting a good amount of snow.

 

 

 

How are the ensembles generally looking for central Arkansas? Noticed the NAM shift south but then again it's the NAM 84 hours out lol