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SENC

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Posts posted by SENC

  1. 1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said:

    We are fortunate that this system wasn’t a few hours slower. There are several discrete tornadic supercells just off the coast of NC at the moment with intense couplets.

    That being said, a few of these may continue to make landfall and impact the coast before the evening is over.

    Brother had a "intense" couplet come ashore here in Surf city,, taking out alot of trees.. 

  2. I reside almost, (On the sound) in Surf City.. 

     

    Water temp(s) BEACH FRONT, are at 80F (depending where), here at Surf City it's @ 79.3 F...

    East/North East winds are already screaming, gust(s) up to 30MPH..

    Wind Average
    2 min ago NE 20 mph
    5 min ago NE 21 mph
    10 min ago NE 21 mph
    15 min ago NE 21 mph
    30 min ago NE 22 mph
    60 min ago NE 19 mph

    Haven't checked the tides yet,, though on Sloop Point Road, down by the Marsh Bridge, It's already being (almost), over topped.. (Mid-Tide).. 

    It's already looking "Ugly" on the beach Strand.. 

     

     

    ophila.JPG

    • Like 4
    • Weenie 1
  3. 34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    It’s funny how the OP Euro and machine learning models were both showing landfalls in SE New England in earlier runs before correcting further east toward the consensus. As to why this was the case, we can leave to the modelers writing the code. It may come down to the OP Euro being over amped at times for some reason. But this bias at times can work like in Sandy when the pattern was super amped up. So I guess some storms play to certain model biases depending on the situation. If they  could train the AI to learn how and which biases to correct on a situational basis the they will really have something.


    https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/how-ai-models-are-transforming-weather-forecasting-showcase-data

    In a recent ECMWF blog and a Newsletter article, we’ve been highlighting the rapid rise of data-driven forecasts. These are produced by machine-learning-based forecasting models, created by innovators such as NVIDIA, Huawei and Google DeepMind.

    The ERA5 reanalysis, produced by the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by ECMWF, is the dataset used to train these models. They can make accurate 10-day forecasts when provided with good initial conditions.

    This summer, we focused on analysing Huawei’s Pangu-Weather to understand its strengths and weaknesses, with results collated in a submitted manuscript. At this early stage in the technology, some results are already displaying comparable skill to ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is an exciting achievement.

    Remember that OLD term? 

    A far as *coding & Modeling*..  

    Garbage In,, Garbage Out..  Equals a Pre-fabricated (NOT Necessarily TRUE ), Result.. 

  4. Here Today, in SENC, (Topsail Island & beaches)..

     

    Wind was "Ripping" earlier this morning.. 

     

    Currently 71F  (76F earlier today about 12PM ).. 

     

    Pressure 29.81 in
    Visibility good
    Clouds: & Cloudy
    Dew Point 61 F
    Humidity 73 %

    Precip : trace 

     

  5. No One talking about TS Freddie? 

    Dangerous Cyclone Freddy Taking Aim At Africa

    There is concern that Tropical Cyclone Freddy will make landfall next week on the eastern coast of Africa with high winds and heavy rain. 

     

    &&&

     

    Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be headed for the record books 

     

    Tropical Cyclone Freddy formed in Australian waters about two weeks ago and is still tracking across the Indian Ocean, putting it on track to challenge two world records.

    The tropical low that would become Tropical Cyclone Freddy initially formed late on Saturday February 4, before being upgraded to a category 1 tropical cyclone on Monday, February 6.

    Freddy initially moved to the south until it was about 660km northeast of Broome, where it took a turn to the west. While in Australian waters, Freddy posed no threat to the mainland, Christmas or the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, even as it became a category 4 severe tropical cyclone with wind gusts of up to 265km/h. It eventually left Australia's region of responsibility on February 14, as it tracked towards the west across longitude 90 degrees east. 

     

    More @ link---> Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be headed for the record books (weatherzone.com.au)

  6. Updated ON the ground #Truth..
    Temps are crashing? temps have falling 4 degrees too 33F, (RATES WILL overcome) or so it's said..

    Dynamic cooling, taking place..
    Rain & snow MIX, has switched over too ALL SNOW! woot woot!

    Starting to stick on elevated surfaces.. Dusting thus far..

    Updated Obs..

    33F
    Pressure 29.75 in

    Visibility 1.9 miles
    Clouds Cloudy (Heavy overcast?)
    Dew Point 32 F
    Humidity 92 %
    Rainfall, Snowfall 0.03 in
    Snow Depth 0.02 (RAIN) Remains too be seen..

    • Like 2
  7. 4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

    RAH says sorry folks 

     

    NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
    As of 355 PM Friday...
    
    ...Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2 inches of remains in effect
    Tonight through Early Saturday for All of Central NC...
    
    Little overall change to the forecast, with the main updates being
    slightly lower snowfall amounts.
    
    The mid-level trough is currently situated over southern IL and
    western KY. This trough will track southeast in the southeast US
    tonight, with tremendous height falls overspreading central NC. The
    trough will close off and move off the New England coast by Saturday
    morning. At the surface, current analysis shows a 1032 mb high
    pressure over northwest MO. There is a weak surface low over north-
    central KY tied to the upper-trough. The developing offshore low is
    roughly 1008 mb off the southeast coast as noted in satellite
    imagery. Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and
    northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the
    ground. The 18Z GSO sounding still showed considerable dry air below
    700 mb and this should be the case until the column saturates as the
    mid-level trough moves over the area during and after 00Z. Rain
    showers have taken shape along the NC coast. Outside of some light
    rain over the far eastern Coastal Plain, this activity should
    continue to push east with the eastward progression of the system.
    
    As the mid-level trough dives southeast and off the coast tonight
    into tomorrow, trough will take on a negative tilt, further adding
    to the strong dynamic forcing. Lift centered around the 290K
    isentropic surface will favor a band of precipitation over the
    northwest Piedmont that will track east-southeast through the
    overnight into early Saturday morning. The 12Z forecast soundings
    from the NAM/GFS indicate that only a short period of rain would be
    warranted, as the column quickly saturates and, along with dynamic
    cooling, reaches the wet-bulb zero temperature at the surface as the
    trough moves through. Thus, the forecast continues the trend of
    little in the way of rain and mostly a snow event. The latest
    snowfall totals show a swath of 1-2 inches over the western
    Piedmont, mainly west of US-1, and generally an inch or less east of
    US-1 over the Coastal Plain. This is roughly in line with latest
    high-resolution HRRR/NAM-NEST, which continues to favor higher
    totals closer to the Triad. Still can`t rule out some areas that
    could see up to 3 inches, especially where isolated heavier snow
    bands develop with the strong forcing.
    
    Temperatures tonight will drop down into the lower 20s over the
    Triad to the lower 30s over the south and east. Gusty winds will
    develop overnight as the coastal low deepens as it tracks off the
    New England Coast by early Saturday. Northwest winds will become
    sustained between 10-15 with gusts of 20 to 35 mph, producing wind
    chills in the single digits to teens.

    [Quote] 

    Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and
    northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the
    ground.[/q]

     

    We (atmosphere),, is saturated here on the Coast, Light Rain falling ATM..

  8. Forecast Temps here on the Coast, Busted.. 5 Degrees Lower than Modeled..

    It got too 45F Today..

     

    Onset of Precip Is (alot) Earlier than expected, (Was 10 PM or so)..

     

    Temp(s) have now fallen too 42F with light Rain in My Forecast area(s).. Light rain right now..

     

    NWS Local Office Disco has mentioned Thunder snow being Possible,, (Locally).. 

  9. Gale & (Possible) WSW here on the coast here shortly..

     

    First cup O' Joe this morning..

    Looked @ the Radar..

    Showed freezing precip over  my head..

    Went out & looked..

     

    Sure enough It's Virga falling, from over head.

     

    Through the (semi) broken clouds..

    You could see, (Jet contrails/Cirrus clouds) are FLYING.. @ (30K?) feet West too about due North east?

     

    Current temps are @ 32F

    Winds North at 5mph..

     

  10. 20 minutes ago, senc30 said:

    This may get deleted and if so, I understand but y'all are smarter then me by a lot so I'm going to ask. 

    How difficult would it be for my area, Jacksonville, to actually get .25-.5 of ice? As someone in their late 30's, I don't ever remember such a think happening down this way. Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that it's not going to be that much!

    Now cast thing..

  11. KILM..

     

    .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
    Shallow arctic air moving into the area Thursday night. A very
    chilly rain falling will start to turn to freezing rain from NW to
    SE, not long after midnight over far interior zones and closer to
    daybreak along the immediate coast. And while the forecast has not
    changed much in the last 12 hours or so there still seems to be a
    distinct possibility that the vertical thickness of the cold air may
    be on the rise and at least part of the area winds up with more of a
    sleet storm that a near full duration freezing rain event. If so
    this will cut down on the potential for ice accretion. Sleet
    certainly poses travel hazards all its own, but tends to be less
    hazardous than pure FZRA. This is due to the fact that the warm nose
    now looks less pronounced and a broad baroclinic zone nearly stalls
    parallel to the coast. The immediate coast may also stand to see
    lower ice amounts due to a brief afternoon rise (barely) above
    freezing. Freezing rain persists along the coast for most of Friday
    night while inland the cold air thickens in height and sleet and
    eventually snow become favored. Most areas appear to change over to
    all snow as the precipitation tapers off leading to small
    accumulations nearly area-wide that may total almost a half inch
    over interior/west of I95 counties. Due to the uncertainties
    discussed above all of the Carolina NWS offices have decided to hold
    off on upgrading the Winter Storm Watch at this time.
  12. I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account..

     

    (Just My 2 pennies here).. ..

    As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F  here on the Beach's.. 

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